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arXiv · 2607.06760

QANTIS: Hardware-Calibrated Sequential POMDP Belief Updates on IBM Heron

Bayram Yuksel Eker·Suayb S. Arslan·Ozgur Nazli·Mustafa Serhat Demirgil·Furkan Deligoz
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Abstract

Autonomous systems under partial observability act on beliefs, not raw sensor events. QANTIS treats the quantum processor as a calibrated belief-update service in that loop: it receives a prior and an observation model, estimates the rare-event evidence term, and returns an ordinary posterior to a classical planner. This paper asks whether that service can be reused across a sequential Tiger POMDP horizon on present IBM Heron hardware without corrupting the planner-facing posterior. We answer with a controlled hardware case study rather than an end-to-end autonomy or wall-clock speedup claim. The study compares no amplification, guarded Grover amplification, and all-step fixed-point amplification on the same trajectory, then checks whether the returned posterior would change the downstream action. All-step FPAA preserves the Tiger posterior across the reported 8-step and 12-step primary runs, and the 20-step and 32-step controls remain inside the same operating band. In every reported decision check, the hardware posterior and the exact Bayes posterior select the same immediate action. Boundary-aware BIQAE stabilizes amplitude estimation near zero and near one, while a rare-event sweep maps the logical sample-complexity envelope for one-in-a-million evidence. The result is an operating envelope for a hardware-calibrated belief-update primitive, not a standalone hardware-advantage claim.

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Bayram Yuksel Eker, Suayb S. Arslan, Ozgur Nazli, Mustafa Serhat Demirgil, Furkan Deligoz. 2026-07-07. QANTIS: Hardware-Calibrated Sequential POMDP Belief Updates on IBM Heron. https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.06760

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