Learning and Structurally Validating Simulation Scenario Continuations in Dynamic Graph Systems

Abstract

Data-driven generative models can extend partially observed simulation trajectories into ensembles of alternative future scenarios. However, consistency with a learned trajectory distribution does not ensure that generated continuations satisfy the structural conditions of the simulated system. This paper presents a method for learned scenario continuation and post-generation structural validation in dynamic graph simulations. A conditional diffusion model generates future graph-state trajectories from partial histories, while an external symbolic layer evaluates each continuation using a Boolean admissibility indicator and a continuous violation score. This information supports hard filtering and soft weighting, with optional projection considered as a deterministic repair baseline. The method is evaluated on two controlled dynamic-graph regimes sharing the same continuation architecture and training protocol but differing in dimensionality and dependency complexity. Evaluation considers invalid probability mass, scenario retention, effective sample size, diversity, robustness, and calibration. In the compact positive-control regime, unconstrained invalid mass is 0.002996, indicating near-complete overlap between the learned and admissible scenario spaces. In the medium-complexity regime, invalid mass rises to 0.155929. Hard filtering removes all invalid scenarios while retaining 84.4% of generated continuations. Soft weighting preserves an effective sample size ratio of 0.998764 but reduces invalid mass only to 0.148807. These results show that learned-distribution support, structural admissibility, and probability calibration can diverge and should therefore be assessed separately in learned simulation-scenario generation and management.