Search arXiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 2608.14927

LLMs Can Predict Failure Risk, But Struggle to Predict Which Collaboration Protocol Pays Off: Cost-Aware Protocol Routing Across Reasoning Tasks

Chih-Hsuan Yang·Jingyan Jiang·Cheng-Hau Yang·Vikram Vasudevan·Huihuo Zheng·Venkatram Vishwanath·Rajeev Thakur
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

Multi-agent large language model (LLM) systems can improve reasoning by spending more computation, but deployment requires deciding when extra collaboration is worth its cost. We isolate this decision by running every problem under four protocols while holding the solver fixed within each setting: direct solving (Baseline), iterative self-correction (Single), planner-executor-reviewer collaboration (PER), and multi-agent deliberation (Broadcast). The primary benchmark comprises 4,181 competition-level math problems; paired robustness checks cover four benchmarks spanning competition math, biology, and broader science with two solver families. Across fixed policies, trained routers, and frozen LLM routers, conservative policies under-escalate, whereas higher-solve frozen routers often over-escalate. A post-answer, pre-collaboration gpt-oss-120b probe ranks Baseline failures with 0.8847 AUROC (4,151 parseable cases; 95% CI [0.8732, 0.8955]). The same score remains informative for predicting whether any collaboration helps (0.7683 AUPRC), but is much weaker for identifying PER- or Broadcast-specific value (0.1674 and 0.1041 AUPRC). Separately, the pre-answer self-confidence gate reaches 78.0% solve at 45K tokens, compared with 73.8% at 71.3K for a frozen gpt-oss-120b router and 92.4% for a retrospective fixed-order oracle. Across 10 paired model-condition settings, the oracle adds 23.2-58.3 points of retrospective coverage over Baseline, but protocol profiles vary by task. In the six settings with held-out router evaluations, oracle gaps remain 18.5-28.9 points. Confidence can therefore support initial escalation, while protocol-specific cost-aware routing remains unresolved.

Explore related subjects

cs.AIcs.CLcs.LG

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Chih-Hsuan Yang, Jingyan Jiang, Cheng-Hau Yang, Vikram Vasudevan, Huihuo Zheng, Venkatram Vishwanath, Rajeev Thakur. 2026-08-14. LLMs Can Predict Failure Risk, But Struggle to Predict Which Collaboration Protocol Pays Off: Cost-Aware Protocol Routing Across Reasoning Tasks. https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.14927

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Collab-Solver: Collaborative Solving Policy Learning for Mixed-Integer Linear Programming

Mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) has been a fundamental problem in combinatorial optimization. Conventional MILP solving mainly relies on carefully designed heuristics embedded in the branch-and-bound framework. Driven by the strong capabilities of neural networks, recent research is exploring the value of machine learning alongside conventional MILP solving. Although learning-based MILP methods have shown great promise, existing works typically learn policies for individual modules in MILP solvers in isolation, without considering their interdependence, which limits both solving efficiency and solution quality. To address this limitation, we propose Collab-Solver, a novel multi-agent-based policy learning framework for MILP that enables collaborative policy optimization for multiple modules. Specifically, we formulate the collaboration between cut selection and branching in MILP solving as a Stackelberg game. Under this formulation, we develop a two-phase learning paradigm to stabilize collaborative policy learning: the first phase performs data-communicated policy pretraining, and the second phase further orchestrates the policy learning for various modules. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and large-scale real-world MILP datasets demonstrate that the jointly learned policies significantly improve solving performance. Moreover, the policies learned by Collab-Solver have also demonstrated excellent generalization abilities across different instance sets.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

Fact Grounded Attention: Eliminating Hallucination in Large Language Models Through Attention Level Knowledge Integration

"The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge." Large Language Models have conquered natural language but remain prisoners of their own probabilistic nature--confidently hallucinating facts they never truly knew. We present Fact Grounded Attention (FGA), a novel architectural modification that transforms unreliable language models into deterministic truth tellers by injecting verifiable knowledge directly into the attention mechanism. Unlike existing approaches that patch hallucinations after generation or prepend retrieved text, FGA intervenes at the mathematical heart of the transformer--the pre-softmax attention scores--creating a model that cannot hallucinate when facts exist in its knowledge base. Our experiments across 1,107 technical queries spanning smartphones, laptops, and electric vehicles demonstrate a transformation from 6.3% accuracy in vanilla Llama 3.2 to 99.7% accuracy with FGA. More critically, knowledge updates occur in under one second without retraining, compared to hours for parameter editing approaches. FGA doesn't just reduce hallucination--it eliminates it entirely for verifiable facts, marking a fundamental shift from probabilistic approximation to deterministic precision in neural language generation.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

MemeLens: Multilingual Multitask VLMs for Memes

Memes are a dominant medium for online communication and manipulation because meaning emerges from interactions between embedded text, imagery, and cultural context. Existing meme research is distributed across tasks (e.g., \textit{hate, misogyny, propaganda, sentiment, humour}) and languages, which limits cross-domain generalization. To address this gap, we propose \textsc{MemeLens}, a unified multilingual, multitask explanation-enhanced Vision-Language Model (VLM) for meme understanding. We consolidate $38$ public meme datasets, filter and map dataset-specific labels into a shared taxonomy of $20$ tasks spanning harm, targets, figurative/pragmatic intent, and affect. We present a comprehensive empirical analysis across modeling paradigms, task categories, and datasets. Our findings suggest that robust meme understanding requires multimodal training, varies substantially across semantic categories, and remains sensitive to over-specialization when models are fine-tuned on individual datasets rather than trained in a unified setting. We make the experimental resources (https://github.com/MohamedBayan/MemeLens), model (https://huggingface.co/QCRI/MemeLens-VLM) and datasets (https://huggingface.co/datasets/QCRI/MemeLens) publicly available to the community.

cs.AI↗