Quantile restrictions, revealed rankings, and the limits of multinomial choice

Tatiana Komarova

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arXiv · 2608.16708

Quantile restrictions, revealed rankings, and the limits of multinomial choice

Tatiana Komarova

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Abstract

This paper analyzes when choice probabilities reveal rankings of deterministic utility indices in semiparametric discrete choice models. It begins with binary choice, where quantile thresholds guarantee ranking recovery, and shows that such thresholds can arise either from behavioral departures from utility maximization (e.g., limited attention) under exchangeable unobservables, or from non-exchangeable unobservables under standard utility maximization. These behavioral and distributional routes are then extended to multinomial choice. Under limited attention, balance restrictions on attention probabilities yield global linear ranking partitions which are robust to the distribution of unobservables and, given sufficiently rich joint variation in the differences of utility indices, are also necessary. Absent the required attention restrictions, opposite rankings can produce overlapping probability images. Under non-exchangeable unobservables, a comparable distribution-uniform partition generally need not exist. Holding the distribution fixed, however, ranking recovery remains possible via an injective nonlinear map from normalized utility differences to choice probabilities under both behavioral and distributional extensions. Together, the results distinguish distribution-robust global ranking partitions from ranking recovery with a fixed distribution of unobservables and clarify the limits of extending binary quantile restrictions to multinomial choice.

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Tatiana Komarova. 2026-08-17. Quantile restrictions, revealed rankings, and the limits of multinomial choice. https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.16708

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