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arXiv · 2608.22389

KONTOGRAPH: Verified Point-in-Time Feature Consistency and Amortised Explanation for Real-Time Anti-Money Laundering under a 200 ms Decision Budget

Ahmed Abolfadl
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Abstract

Regulation (EU) 2024/886 obliges European payment service providers to settle euro credit transfers in under ten seconds, around the clock. This removes both the overnight batch window in which anti-money-laundering (AML) analytics traditionally ran and the settlement delay that made recovery possible, forcing detection, explanation and decision inside a single-digit-second envelope. We present KONTOGRAPH, an end-to-end AML pipeline for the SEPA Instant rail built under a self-imposed 200 ms 99th-percentile budget, and report an empirical study on 1,562,860 simulated payments with injected typologies and deliberately incomplete labels. Three findings are of interest beyond the system itself. First, a temporal graph network with per-node memory improves PR-AUC over a gradient-boosted tabular baseline from 0.0053 to 0.1717, a paired day-blocked bootstrap difference of +0.166 with 95% CI [0.105, 0.241]; per-node memory alone more than doubles the score. Second, expressing each feature once and compiling it to three execution backends, with equivalence enforced by property-based tests that perturb the future, surfaced three point-in-time violations that code review had passed--each of which would have inflated reported performance. Third, and most consequential for practice, exporting the deployed tree ensemble to ONNX changed only $7.4 \times 10^{-8}$ in mean score yet altered 0.26% of decisions and inflated the alert volume by 12%, because 32-bit accumulation perturbs scores across a cost-optimal threshold of $3.98 \times 10^{-4}$. We argue that a serving-format conversion must be treated as a model change until measured, and that fidelity metrics for subgraph explainers can be vacuous when candidate neighbourhoods are small--a null result we report in full.

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Ahmed Abolfadl. 2026-08-23. KONTOGRAPH: Verified Point-in-Time Feature Consistency and Amortised Explanation for Real-Time Anti-Money Laundering under a 200 ms Decision Budget. https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.22389

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