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arXiv · 2609.06060

Calendar-Structured Sparse Principal Component Analysis for Interpretable Multi-Periodic Electricity Consumption Profiles

Carlos Quesada-Granja·Tony Castillo-Calzadilla·Carlos Rizo-Maestre
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Abstract

Long-term electricity-consumption profiles exhibit several simultaneous periodic structures, including daily, weekly, and annual cycles. This work introduces Calendar-Structured Sparse Principal Component Analysis (Calendar-SPCA), a structured representation-learning method that incorporates this known multi-periodic geometry directly into a low-dimensional factorization. The method represents the feature domain as the Cartesian product of cyclic calendar axes and combines an L1 loading penalty with graph total variation, producing sparse, locally coherent, and directly interpretable latent factors. In this study, Calendar-SPCA is applied to the interpretable analysis of long-term electricity-consumption profiles and evaluated on two independent public smart-meter datasets, GoiEner and Low Carbon London, with different population sizes and temporal resolutions. A factorial experiment characterizes the effects of sparsity and calendar coherence and examines robustness across sample size, latent dimensionality, and repeated fits. At rank 15, Calendar-SPCA retains 96.92% and 82.90% of the explained variance of rank-matched principal component analysis (PCA) in GoiEner and Low Carbon London, respectively, with mean loading sparsities of 61.95% and 81.50%. Comparisons with classical sparse PCA and sparse PCA with total variation (SPCA-TV) show that Calendar-SPCA organizes latent factors into interpretable structures over the daily, weekly, and annual calendar axes while preserving substantial low-rank information.

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Carlos Quesada-Granja, Tony Castillo-Calzadilla, Carlos Rizo-Maestre. 2026-09-16. Calendar-Structured Sparse Principal Component Analysis for Interpretable Multi-Periodic Electricity Consumption Profiles. https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.06060

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