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arXiv · 2609.23074

Event Signature Transfer: Model-Agnostic Forecast Scenario Construction from Historical Events

Karthik Sridhar·Aaditya Jain·Murari Mandal·Saurabh Deshpande
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Abstract

Forecasters often know an event is imminent but not the shape, size, or timing of its effect. We introduce Event Signature Transfer (EST), a training-free, model-agnostic operator that turns a completed past event into an explicit forecast scenario. EST removes a source event's own trend and seasonality, then scales and retimes the remaining event signature onto a native forecast, preserving the forecast's linked structure and reducing to it exactly at zero strength. Because it reads only output quantiles, EST applies to any quantile forecaster, with no training, no model internals, at transfer time. Across twelve real episodes and ten synthetic scenarios on Chronos-2, TimesFM-2.5 and Toto-2.0, manually configured EST reduces real-episode WQL by 21.7-90\% in-sample. On Chronos-2, it leads eleven of twelve matched comparisons against covariate conditioning, activation editing and raw replay. The operator builds a scenario; it does not estimate its likelihood.

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Karthik Sridhar, Aaditya Jain, Murari Mandal, Saurabh Deshpande. 2026-09-19. Event Signature Transfer: Model-Agnostic Forecast Scenario Construction from Historical Events. https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.23074

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