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arXiv · 2609.23350

Retrieving predictive densities from conformal predictive distributions

Dan Andrei Tudor·Dorota Kurowicka·Balint Negyesi·Valerii Zoller
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Abstract

Conformal prediction intervals are used to construct marginally well-calibrated regions around point predictions. Recent work has focused on extending these ideas to conformal predictive distributions, whose marginal probability integral transform (PIT) follows a Unif[0, 1] distribution. In this work, we investigate how to recover predictive densities from conformal predictive distributions. We extend the theory of conformal predictive distributions by proving asymptotic marginal validity for a tail-corrected version of conformal predictive distributions. We propose a method called quantile matching, which preserves an upper bound on the deviation of the marginal PIT from uniformity. Furthermore, we show that the distribution induced by quantile matching is equivalent to the crisp version of conformal predictive distributions when the number of quantiles equals the size of the calibration set. For the recovery of conformal densities, we construct a fidelity-constrained bandwidth optimization for kernel smoothing that preserves asymptotic marginal validity and has a closed-form solution. We apply and compare our proposed methodology on a large simulated real estate transactions dataset based on the Hierarchical Trend Model.

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Dan Andrei Tudor, Dorota Kurowicka, Balint Negyesi, Valerii Zoller. 2026-09-20. Retrieving predictive densities from conformal predictive distributions. https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.23350

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