arXiv subjects

Balint Negyesi

Publications and source records attributed to Balint Negyesi.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Retrieving predictive densities from conformal predictive distributions

Conformal prediction intervals are used to construct marginally well-calibrated regions around point predictions. Recent work has focused on extending these ideas to conformal predictive distributions, whose marginal probability integral transform (PIT) follows a Unif[0, 1] distribution. In this work, we investigate how to recover predictive densities from conformal predictive distributions. We extend the theory of conformal predictive distributions by proving asymptotic marginal validity for a tail-corrected version of conformal predictive distributions. We propose a method called quantile matching, which preserves an upper bound on the deviation of the marginal PIT from uniformity. Furthermore, we show that the distribution induced by quantile matching is equivalent to the crisp version of conformal predictive distributions when the number of quantiles equals the size of the calibration set. For the recovery of conformal densities, we construct a fidelity-constrained bandwidth optimization for kernel smoothing that preserves asymptotic marginal validity and has a closed-form solution. We apply and compare our proposed methodology on a large simulated real estate transactions dataset based on the Hierarchical Trend Model.

math.ST↗

arXiv2025

A deep BSDE approach for the simultaneous pricing and delta-gamma hedging of large portfolios consisting of high-dimensional multi-asset Bermudan options

A deep BSDE approach is presented for the pricing and delta-gamma hedging of high-dimensional Bermudan options, with applications in portfolio risk management. Large portfolios of a mixture of multi-asset European and Bermudan derivatives are cast into the framework of discretely reflected BSDEs. This system is discretized by the One Step Malliavin scheme (Negyesi et al. [2024, 2025]) of discretely reflected Markovian BSDEs, which involves a $Γ$ process, corresponding to second-order sensitivities of the associated option prices. The discretized system is solved by a neural network regression Monte Carlo method, efficiently for a large number of underlyings. The resulting option Deltas and Gammas are used to discretely rebalance the corresponding replicating strategies. Numerical experiments are presented on both high-dimensional basket options and large portfolios consisting of multiple options with varying early exercise rights, moneyness and volatility. These examples demonstrate the robustness and accuracy of the method up to $100$ risk factors. The resulting hedging strategies significantly outperform benchmark methods both in the case of standard delta- and delta-gamma hedging.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2025

Generalized convergence of the deep BSDE method: a step towards fully-coupled FBSDEs and applications in stochastic control

We are concerned with high-dimensional coupled FBSDE systems approximated by the deep BSDE method of Han et al. (2018). It was shown by Han and Long (2020) that the errors induced by the deep BSDE method admit a posteriori estimate depending on the loss function, whenever the backward equation only couples into the forward diffusion through the Y process. We generalize this result to drift coefficients that may also depend on Z, and give sufficient conditions for convergence under standard assumptions. The resulting conditions are directly verifiable for any equation. Consequently, unlike in earlier theory, our convergence analysis enables the treatment of FBSDEs stemming from stochastic optimal control problems. In particular, we provide a theoretical justification for the non-convergence of the deep BSDE method observed in recent literature, and present direct guidelines for when convergence can be guaranteed in practice. Our theoretical findings are supported by several numerical experiments in high-dimensional settings.

math.NA↗

arXiv2025

A numerical Fourier cosine expansion method with higher order Taylor schemes for fully coupled FBSDEs

A higher-order numerical method is presented for scalar valued, coupled forward-backward stochastic differential equations. Unlike most classical references, the forward component is not only discretized by an Euler-Maruyama approximation but also by higher-order Taylor schemes. This includes the famous Milstein scheme, providing an improved strong convergence rate of order 1; and the simplified order 2.0 weak Taylor scheme exhibiting weak convergence rate of order 2. In order to have a fully-implementable scheme in case of these higher-order Taylor approximations, which involve the derivatives of the decoupling fields, we use the COS method built on Fourier cosine expansions to approximate the conditional expectations arising from the numerical approximation of the backward component. Even though higher-order numerical approximations for the backward equation are deeply studied in the literature, to the best of our understanding, the present numerical scheme is the first which achieves strong convergence of order 1 for the whole coupled system, including the forward equation, which is often the main interest in applications such as stochastic control. Numerical experiments demonstrate the proclaimed higher-order convergence, both in case of strong and weak convergence rates, for various equations ranging from decoupled to the fully-coupled settings.

math.NA↗

arXiv2024

Convergence of the deep BSDE method for stochastic control problems formulated through the stochastic maximum principle

It is well-known that decision-making problems from stochastic control can be formulated by means of a forward-backward stochastic differential equation (FBSDE). Recently, the authors of Ji et al. 2022 proposed an efficient deep learning algorithm based on the stochastic maximum principle (SMP). In this paper, we provide a convergence result for this deep SMP-BSDE algorithm and compare its performance with other existing methods. In particular, by adopting a strategy as in Han and Long 2020, we derive a-posteriori estimate, and show that the total approximation error can be bounded by the value of the loss functional and the discretization error. We present numerical examples for high-dimensional stochastic control problems, both in case of drift- and diffusion control, which showcase superior performance compared to existing algorithms.

math.OC↗

arXiv2021

The One Step Malliavin scheme: new discretization of BSDEs implemented with deep learning regressions

A novel discretization is presented for forward-backward stochastic differential equations (FBSDE) with differentiable coefficients, simultaneously solving the BSDE and its Malliavin sensitivity problem. The control process is estimated by the corresponding linear BSDE driving the trajectories of the Malliavin derivatives of the solution pair, which implies the need to provide accurate $Γ$ estimates. The approximation is based on a merged formulation given by the Feynman-Kac formulae and the Malliavin chain rule. The continuous time dynamics is discretized with a theta-scheme. In order to allow for an efficient numerical solution of the arising semi-discrete conditional expectations in possibly high-dimensions, it is fundamental that the chosen approach admits to differentiable estimates. Two fully-implementable schemes are considered: the BCOS method as a reference in the one-dimensional framework and neural network Monte Carlo regressions in case of high-dimensional problems, similarly to the recently emerging class of Deep BSDE methods [Han et al. (2018), Huré et al. (2020)]. An error analysis is carried out to show $L^2$ convergence of order $1/2$, under standard Lipschitz assumptions and additive noise in the forward diffusion. Numerical experiments are provided for a range of different semi- and quasi-linear equations up to $50$ dimensions, demonstrating that the proposed scheme yields a significant improvement in the control estimations.

math.NA↗