Overlay\_dx - Automating forecasting evaluation

Abstract

Traditional evaluation metrics provides numerical values but often lack comprehensibility, hindering effective differentiation of model performances. Our work addresses this challenge by introducing overlay\_dx, a novel evaluation metric measuring the performance of time series prediction models. Overlay\_dx is a visual metric that represents the percentage of predictions falling within a confidence interval around actual values. Additionally, once evaluation results are plotted, overlay\_dx computes the area under the overlay curve, providing a quantitative measure of alignment between predicted and actual values across different thresholds and predictions. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that our approach offers a unified evaluation framework that combines both visual and numerical assessments, enabling improved model comparison and providing valuable insights for further research and optimization efforts in time series prediction.