Early Prediction of Pathological Complete Response to Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy Using Temporal Deep Learning on DWI

Abstract

Early identification of non-responders to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) is crucial for timely treatment adaptation in breast cancer. However, many existing predictive models rely on multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), late treatment time points, or extensive clinical data, which limits their applicability. This study proposes a deep learning framework for early prediction of pathological complete response (pCR) using only diffusion-weighted MRI (DW-MRI) acquired at baseline and after the first NACT cycle. This framework feeds cropped tumor-centered patches to an EfficientNet-based temporal model that directly learns tumor shape and local tissue characteristics without explicit radiomic feature engineering. The model, trained with 10-fold cross-validation, achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.90 for pCR prediction after one cycle, providing actionable information after a single treatment cycle while avoiding gadolinium administration and reducing dependence on heterogeneous clinical data. By focusing on the baseline-to-first-cycle window instead of later stages, the approach supports earlier escalation or de-escalation of NACT, and its exclusive reliance on DW-MRI facilitates protocol standardization, multi-centre deployment and privacy-preserving data sharing. These results demonstrate that DW-MRI-based deep learning on tumor-centered patches constitutes a minimally invasive, clinically deployable strategy for early pCR prediction, with direct implications for personalized treatment adaptation in neoadjuvant breast cancer therapy.