Mathematical modelling of a multicluster open system: transfer-operator recovery from aggregate data under a least-action prior

Abstract

Many open systems are observed only through aggregate snapshots, while the rule that moves objects between states stays hidden. This paper studies the inverse problem of recovering the transfer operator of a multicluster open system from two adjacent snapshots. The consistent operators fill an affine manifold: the data fix the aggregate flows and leave the internal routing free, so every recovery method commits to a prior that selects one operator. Tikhonov regularisation with a zero reference gives the uniform outflow on each source simplex, which underestimates retention in an inertial system. We propose least action on the operator trajectory, under which the rule changes as little as the data permit. In discrete time this is exact as a probability statement: the action prices a trajectory by its likelihood under a Gaussian reference drawn toward full retention, so least action selects the most probable trajectory consistent with the balance. A causal construction keeps the balance exact by moving the operator only inside the null space of the constraints, and we relate it to optimal transport, to Perron-Frobenius coarse-graining, and to the Schrödinger bridge. Two instantiations carry it: the Russian labour market and a radiation-damped relativistic electron ensemble. The construction holds the balance to machine precision where temporal smoothing corrupts it by twelve percent on the labour series and sixty percent in the physical one. The spectral gap is non-identifiable from aggregate snapshots but available from micro-trajectories, where Ulam's method reproduces the Landau-Lifshitz rate to within six percent. On the short labour series no method beats the naive forecast in point accuracy at conventional significance levels. The value is structural: an interpretable operator, an exactly preserved balance, and an explicit information limit of aggregate observation.