When Is Molecular-Dynamics-Predicted Ionic Conductivity Reliable in Solid Electrolytes?

Abstract

Molecular dynamics is widely used to predict ionic conductivity in solid electrolytes, but the reliability of these predictions is often difficult to assess. Our analysis identifies finite trajectory length, limited cell size, and insufficient sampling as intrinsic limitations of finite atomistic ion-transport calculations. Cubic Li7La3Zr2O12 is used as a representative solid electrolyte to quantify their consequences. These limitations can remain hidden behind apparently linear mean-squared displacements and well-behaved Arrhenius relations, leading to inaccurate diffusivities, activation energies, and extrapolated ionic conductivities. Such inaccuracies can misrank candidate solid electrolytes and consequently misdirect computational screening and experimental validation. Here, we establish the local mean-squared-displacement exponent, α(t), as a quantitative reliability criterion that links dynamical convergence to errors in diffusivity and Nernst-Einstein ionic conductivity. The criterion further determines the minimum trajectory length required to achieve a prescribed accuracy as a function of temperature. Independent replicas reduce statistical uncertainty, while selective single-axis expansion mitigates finite-size effects. By establishing when simulated ionic conductivity is quantitatively trustworthy, this approach enables more reliable materials ranking and more efficient use of computational and experimental resources, thereby accelerating the development of high-performance solid electrolytes for solid-state batteries.