Which Influence Are We Estimating? The Role of Counterfactual Specifications in Data Attribution

Abstract

Estimating the influence of training examples on model behavior is essential for data debugging, valuation, and attribution. Existing influence estimators often produce incompatible rankings, which are commonly ascribed to approximation error. We argue that a more fundamental source of disagreement is specification mismatch: influence depends on the behavior being attributed, the intervention applied to each training example, and the counterfactual training process that maps the intervention to a model response. These choices are especially important when the target behavior requires a tractable surrogate, such as query loss, a logit, or a margin. We formalize influence as a counterfactual estimand, distinguish specification mismatch across estimands from approximation error in estimating a fixed estimand, and organize representative estimators by their implied specifications. We further derive a local decomposition that exposes how behavior signals, training signals, and counterfactual parameter responses interact. Controlled experiments show that exact estimands under different specifications can induce different rankings, whereas approximation error grows as perturbations move farther from their linearization points. Experiments on noisy label detection and LLM attribution show that specification choices significantly affect attribution quality, especially for the choice of behavior surrogate. Behavior-aligned specifications can identify target-specific training examples obscured by default loss-based or similarity-based specifications. These results establish specification analysis as a necessary first step for interpreting and comparing data influence estimators.