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arXiv · 2609.38197

DualCast: A Dual-Path Language Model for Bimodal Financial Time-Series Forecasting

Wentao Zhao·Hongqiang Wu·Shanghang Liu·Zhaochen Zan·Yu Zhang·Biqing Huang
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Abstract

Financial time-series forecasting must capture price dynamics across heterogeneous assets while incorporating news available at prediction time. We introduce DualCast, a dual-path framework that extends a frozen language model with a discrete financial vocabulary. Each log-return patch is represented by a learned summary token and three residual shape tokens, preserving local drift and volatility while allowing shape patterns to be shared across assets. To improve codebook utilization, we develop adaptive frequency-equalizing residual vector quantization, which rebalances overloaded codewords without compromising reconstruction accuracy. The fast path trains only the new financial-token embeddings and output heads on a frozen Qwen3-8B backbone. A toggleable LoRA adapter enables a slow path that conditions on the fast forecast and news available at the forecast origin to produce a revised prediction. The reviser is initialized by supervised fine-tuning and further optimized with a return-space group relative policy optimization objective that rewards improvements over the fast forecast. In zero-shot evaluations covering equities and energy prices at five-minute, daily, and weekly resolutions, the slow path achieves the lowest mean absolute percentage error among the compared methods in 8 of 12 dataset-horizon settings, including every longest-horizon setting. News ablations indicate additional gains in most tested settings, although their magnitude varies across markets. DualCast thus combines a fast numerical forecaster with an optional text-conditioned revision mechanism.

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Wentao Zhao, Hongqiang Wu, Shanghang Liu, Zhaochen Zan, Yu Zhang, Biqing Huang. 2026-09-18. DualCast: A Dual-Path Language Model for Bimodal Financial Time-Series Forecasting. https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.38197

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