Search arXiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 2610.05869

Finite-Sample Distribution Theory and Efficient Large-Scale Inference for Online Quantile Regression

Ziyang Wei·Jiaqi Li·Lan Wang·Wei Biao Wu
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

This paper studies online quantile regression for large-scale and streaming data using Stochastic SubGradient Descent (SSGD) with constant learning rates. Classical offline inference for quantile regression is computationally and memory intensive. Existing works of online inference for quantile regression provide only asymptotic guarantees and typically require sub-exponential tail conditions for distribution theory. To bridge these gaps, we introduce new techniques to prove a quenched central limit theorem (CLT) and finite-sample Gaussian approximation for SSGD under a finite-moment assumption. We further show that Ruppert-Polyak averaging with a constant learning rate has a non-vanishing bias and fails to satisfy CLT centering at the population target. Hence we propose suffix averaging to address this issue and establish its finite-sample Gaussian approximation. Based on these results, we provide an efficient online inference method for quantile regression that avoids covariance estimation. Numerical experiments show that our method achieves desirable empirical coverage rates and competitive performance compared to other inference methods. We also apply our approach to U.S. wage data to demonstrate its practical effectiveness.

Explore related subjects

stat.MLcs.LGmath.STstat.MEstat.TH

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Ziyang Wei, Jiaqi Li, Lan Wang, Wei Biao Wu. 2026-10-05. Finite-Sample Distribution Theory and Efficient Large-Scale Inference for Online Quantile Regression. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.05869

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Ordinary Nonconvex SGD under Distance-Dependent Moments: Finite-Horizon Stationarity and Nagaev Bounds

Uniform noise-moment bounds exclude stochastic gradients whose variability increases with the iterate. We study ordinary, single-sample stochastic gradient descent for smooth, lower-bounded, possibly nonconvex objectives under distance-dependent conditional moments. Under second moments alone, a direct descent--displacement argument yields $T^{-1/3}$ expected average squared-gradient stationarity with a horizon-dependent stepsize. An explicit oracle-complexity corollary matches the known smooth Blum--Gladyshev (BG-0) lower bound, including the $Lb_2Δ^3\varepsilon^{-6}$ and $LΔσ^2\varepsilon^{-4}$ stochastic terms, where $Δ$ is the initial objective gap and $σ^2+b_2\|x-x_1\|^2$ bounds the variance. Thus unchanged SGD attains the minimax stochastic complexity in this second-moment class. For $p>2$, predictable localization and a Hilbert-space Fuk--Nagaev inequality yield a high-probability bound separating logarithmic variance and polynomial rare-shock contributions. The localization radius is derived from the recursion: no bounded-iterate assumption, clipping, normalization, momentum, or increasing batch size is needed. We also give increasing-confidence rates, an objective-gap-growth refinement recovering root-$T$ stationarity, and stochastic $L^p$-Lipschitz examples. The broad BG-0 optimality statement is distinguished from the smaller mean-square-smooth class, in which additional oracle structure permits faster algorithms.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

Adjoint-Based Calibration and Optimal Control of Stochastic Multiscale Bioprocess Digital Twins

We develop a bias-aware digital-twin calibration and control framework for multiscale bioprocess models within a biological systems-of-systems (Bio-SoS) paradigm. The digital twin is represented by a stochastic differential equation (SDE) model and calibrated from sparse, discrete observations using quasi-likelihood estimation and adjoint sensitivity analysis. SDE generator-based moment expansions characterize truncation-induced parameter bias, while forward-backward adjoints quantify how calibration uncertainty propagates to value functions and policy performance. The resulting parameter-error distribution supports both policy-directed adaptive experimental design and uncertainty-aware policy optimization through a second-order Gaussian-averaged objective. We characterize the asymptotic behavior of the resulting exploration criterion and derive a physical-system performance under the optimized policy. To implement these ideas, we develop an Actor-Simulator algorithm that jointly updates model parameters, selects informative experiments, and optimizes control policies. Numerical studies demonstrate improved calibration accuracy, sample efficiency, and control performance relative to state-of-the-art baselines.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

Reflected Anchored Langevin Algorithms

First order Langevin algorithms for constrained sampling in machine learning, such as projected Langevin Monte Carlo which are based on discretizations of reflected Langevin dynamics, require differentiable log densities that limits their applicability. This paper introduces reflected anchored Langevin dynamics (RALD), a reflected diffusion that converges to non-differentiable targets on constrained domains. The method uses a smooth anchored reference potential and multiplies the drift and noise covariance of its reflected Langevin dynamics by the same state dependent scaling factor. Its Euler-Maruyama discretization with projection gives reflected anchored Langevin Monte Carlo (RALMC) algorithm. We prove explicit convergence bounds and iteration complexity for RALMC in the 2-Wasserstein distance to the target distribution. Numerical experiments are provided to illustrate the theoretical predictions and the empirical performance of the method.

stat.ML↗