arXiv subjects

Wei Biao Wu

Publications and source records attributed to Wei Biao Wu.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Bias Correction and Inference for Panel Quantile Regression

We develop a large-$n$, large-$T$ theory for the unsmoothed fixed-effects quantile regression estimator, paralleling Hahn and Newey (2004) for smooth nonlinear panel models. An exact rank-score identity for the profiled criterion, with a convexity argument, delivers the leading incidental parameter bias of the slope estimator, of order $T^{-1}$, in closed form. When $n$ and $T$ grow at the same rate, the estimator is asymptotically normal but in general not centred, and conventional intervals are invalid. Admissible growth of $n$ relative to $T$, up to $n=o(T^3)$, depends on the regularity of the conditional error densities. A split-panel jackknife removes the leading bias throughout this range and yields valid inference. In serially dependent panels whose dependence decays geometrically or polynomially, the bias acquires a term from the dependence between regressors and errors of different periods, the jackknife remains valid with contiguous but not with interleaved half-panels, and clustered standard errors are valid.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2026

Exact Tail Laws for Nonlinear SGD with Infinite-Variance Gradients

With infinite-variance gradient noise, SGD can have infinite expected excess objective even when most iterates are close to the optimum. We characterize its accuracy through exact first-order tail probabilities for the last iterate of nonlinear, constant-stepsize SGD. For regularly varying innovations of index $t\in(1,2)$, the leading measure transports one large gradient shock through the local Hessian flow. This is the same measure that governs the central stable Ornstein--Uhlenbeck limit; we prove its relative accuracy at shrinking tolerances above the central scale, with state-dependent noise and a growing observation horizon. The admissible window is nonempty for every available gradient moment $p>1$. The main technical step is a moment bound at the central fluctuation scale and a lower-moment control of the nonlinear error. The result yields explicit projection and excess-objective tails, extreme quantiles, and a factor $b^{1-t}$ for fixed batch size $b$. For affine population gradients, a sharper comparison gives the same law at fixed tolerances, including random sample Hessians. Coupled simulations in dimensions one to one hundred examine relative calibration, objective quantiles, batch effects, and the error due to random curvature.

math.ST↗

arXiv2026

Strong Gaussian Approximation of Constant Learning Rate SGD: Bias and Trajectory Inference

This paper develops strong Gaussian approximations (KMT type) for constant learning rate stochastic gradient descent (SGD). We work with heavy tailed noise and assume that the number of iterates grows and the learning rate shrinks simultaneously. Our work constructs simple Gaussian processes on the same space and bounds, in probability, the maximum difference between the SGD errors and their respective limits. While there exist central limit theorems for constant rate SGD centered at the optimum, these only provide individual iterate inference. By contrast, our quenched KMT approximations allow for finite sample, simultaneous, whole-trajectory-level inference and imply stochastic process convergence (Functional Central Limit Theorems (FCLTs)). For accumulated errors centered at the true optimum, we first obtain a KMT-type approximation bound when the learning rate scales as $γ_n=\frac{c}{\sqrt n}+o(n^{-1/2})$ for a constant $c \in \mathbb{R}^+$ and $n$ iterations. The result reveals a trade off between controlling the bias of SGD and the initialization effect, with no learning rate scaling generally making both contributions vanish in the accumulated error limit. To eliminate these contributions, we consider a Burn in scheme and Richardson-Romberg extrapolation and prove respective KMT and FCLT theorems. We also prove a finite-horizon KMT-type approximation and FCLT for the rescaled iterate trajectory to a stationary Ornstein--Uhlenbeck (OU) process. We consider applications in risk control and simultaneous inference and perform simulations to illustrate our results.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Stochastic Gradient Descent: A Nonlinear Time Series Perspective

This paper investigates the statistical behavior of Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) with constant step size under the framework of iterated random functions. Compared to previous studies establishing the convergence of SGD in probability measure, e.g., Wasserstein distance, our approach directly provides the convergence in Euclidean distance by showing the Geometric Moment Contraction (GMC) of SGD. This new convergence can address the non-stationarity of SGD due to fixed initial points and can provide a more refined asymptotic analysis of SGD. Specifically, we prove quenched central limit theorem, invariance principle and $α$-stable convergence for averaged SGD (ASGD) regardless of initialization. Furthermore, we provide a novel perspective to understand the impact of step sizes in SGD by studying its derivative with respect to the step size. The existence of stationary solutions for the derivative processes is shown, enabling the use of interpolation to recover the full-trajectory of SGD. Subsequently, we utilize multiple step sizes and show an enhanced Richardson-Romberg extrapolation with improved bias representation, which brings ASGD estimates closer to the global optimum. Finally, we propose a new online inference method and a bias-reduced variant for the extrapolated ASGD. Empirical confidence intervals are constructed and the coverage probabilities approach the nominal level as $n$ grows.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Limit Theory for Online Expectile Estimation under Short and Long Range Dependence

Expectiles are tail-sensitive distributional summaries with important applications in financial risk measurement and forecasting, yet statistical theory for their online estimation from dependent data remains limited. We study a one-pass, stochastic-gradient algorithm with constant learning rate $γ$ for estimating the marginal expectile of a stationary causal process. The recursion admits a unique stationary causal solution and geometrically forgets its initialization. Under short-range dependence, its last iterate is asymptotically Gaussian at the $\sqrtγ$ scale, with variance governed by the population curvature and the long-run variance of the expectile score. For long-memory linear processes the scale changes to $γ^{β-1/2}\ell(1/γ)$, with a Gaussian limit arising from a fractional Brownian motion integral. We further derive the joint long-memory limit for multiple expectile levels and characterize its limiting covariance structure. Various numerical experiments corroborate the predicted Gaussian approximations and regime-specific fluctuation scales.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

A Nonlinear Time-Series Theory for Constant-step SGD with Momentum

Constant-step stochastic gradient descent with momentum (SGDM) augments the parameter recursion with a momentum state that carries geometrically decaying memory of past stochastic gradients. We study this coupled recursion as a nonlinear time series and develop a framework for its stationary behavior and distributional limits. The joint parameter-momentum process forgets its initialization geometrically under a finite $p$th moment for $p > 1$, yielding a unique stationary causal solution. Under a second-moment condition, this contraction leads to an invariance principle and quenched Gaussian limit for averaged SGDM, while a small-learning-rate analysis gives a Gaussian limit for the last iterate. In a stochastic-curvature quadratic model, we further study how the rate of initialization forgetting relates to stationary variance and averaged fluctuations.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Ordinary Nonconvex SGD under Distance-Dependent Moments: Finite-Horizon Stationarity and Nagaev Bounds

Uniform noise-moment bounds exclude stochastic gradients whose variability increases with the iterate. We study ordinary, single-sample stochastic gradient descent for smooth, lower-bounded, possibly nonconvex objectives under distance-dependent conditional moments. Under second moments alone, a direct descent--displacement argument yields $T^{-1/3}$ expected average squared-gradient stationarity with a horizon-dependent stepsize. An explicit oracle-complexity corollary matches the known smooth Blum--Gladyshev (BG-0) lower bound, including the $Lb_2Δ^3\varepsilon^{-6}$ and $LΔσ^2\varepsilon^{-4}$ stochastic terms, where $Δ$ is the initial objective gap and $σ^2+b_2\|x-x_1\|^2$ bounds the variance. Thus unchanged SGD attains the minimax stochastic complexity in this second-moment class. For $p>2$, predictable localization and a Hilbert-space Fuk--Nagaev inequality yield a high-probability bound separating logarithmic variance and polynomial rare-shock contributions. The localization radius is derived from the recursion: no bounded-iterate assumption, clipping, normalization, momentum, or increasing batch size is needed. We also give increasing-confidence rates, an objective-gap-growth refinement recovering root-$T$ stationarity, and stochastic $L^p$-Lipschitz examples. The broad BG-0 optimality statement is distinguished from the smaller mean-square-smooth class, in which additional oracle structure permits faster algorithms.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Finite-Sample Distribution Theory and Efficient Large-Scale Inference for Online Quantile Regression

This paper studies online quantile regression for large-scale and streaming data using Stochastic SubGradient Descent (SSGD) with constant learning rates. Classical offline inference for quantile regression is computationally and memory intensive. Existing works of online inference for quantile regression provide only asymptotic guarantees and typically require sub-exponential tail conditions for distribution theory. To bridge these gaps, we introduce new techniques to prove a quenched central limit theorem (CLT) and finite-sample Gaussian approximation for SSGD under a finite-moment assumption. We further show that Ruppert-Polyak averaging with a constant learning rate has a non-vanishing bias and fails to satisfy CLT centering at the population target. Hence we propose suffix averaging to address this issue and establish its finite-sample Gaussian approximation. Based on these results, we provide an efficient online inference method for quantile regression that avoids covariance estimation. Numerical experiments show that our method achieves desirable empirical coverage rates and competitive performance compared to other inference methods. We also apply our approach to U.S. wage data to demonstrate its practical effectiveness.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Moment-Accurate Gaussian Mixtures for Constant-Step Stochastic Approximation

Local Gaussian models of constant-step learning predict output variability and expected losses, but weak convergence alone does not justify these moment predictions. We establish moment-accurate Gaussian mixtures by matching stationary energy with local Ornstein--Uhlenbeck limits, ruling out quadratic tail mass invisible to weak convergence. For step size $a$, the second-order Wasserstein error is $o(\sqrt a)$, uniformly over invariant laws, using each law's actual root weights. The assumptions combine confinement, descent, finitely many hyperbolic equilibria and root continuity with finite-variance innovations. The result yields observable covariances, expected objective gaps and first-order mean shifts, while allowing singular covariances, compatible saddles and weights without a limit. For additive noise given by a fixed invertible transform of independent standardized Student $t_3$ coordinates, symmetry gives an order-sharp $\sqrt a$ smooth-test bound. Numerical transport calculations demonstrate the value of root-specific covariances; controlled SGD studies assess observable predictions across step sizes, batch sizes and model geometries.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Gaussian Limits for SGD Without Stationary Moments

Temporal dependence can separate the Gaussian approximation of stochastic gradient descent from its stationary moments. For unmodified least-squares SGD, we construct a design with standard Gaussian marginals whose stationary error has every positive moment infinite. Independent observations with the same marginals instead give finite stationary variance. Both regimes retain a Gaussian small-step limit. Our general theory establishes pathwise contraction from a finite second design moment, then uses score cancellation and localization to obtain stationary Gaussian and Ornstein--Uhlenbeck limits. Independent Gaussian regression errors yield an exact conditional Gaussian law and total-variation convergence under the same design integrability. Stronger design conditions identify a positive first-order total-variation constant and a deterministic covariance correction with $o(a)$ error. A scalar coverage expansion translates this correction into its inference consequence. Experiments examine distributional error, coverage, and calibration with dependent scores. Together, these results establish precise probability-law approximation beyond moment-based stationary analysis.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Valid and Efficient Split Conformal Regression for Time Series

We study conformalized quantile regression and conformalized median regression that fit a model on one block of a time series and calibrate the conformal interval on the adjacent block. The existing theory of conformal prediction for time series rests largely on mixing conditions, which are hard to verify from a time-series model and fail for many standard processes, including simple ones with short memory. We replace this theoretical toolbox with the functional dependence measure, which in principle accommodates long-memory observations. The accuracy of the conformal interval length for time series has been understudied. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first work that establishes non-asymptotic coverage guarantees and accuracy of interval length simultaneously for split conformal regression on time series. Furthermore, for Gaussian linear processes with long memory, where both the estimation of the center and its calibration converge slowly, we establish a sharper rate for the length error. We show that the calibrated length converges faster than the estimated center itself, and provide a matching lower bound for the usual centers when the calibration block is sufficiently large relative to the training block. To our knowledge, this is the first theoretical analysis of conformal interval length dedicated to long memory.

math.ST↗

arXiv2026

Conformal Coverage of Time Series: Validity and Inference

Conformal prediction provides marginal coverage guarantees, yet practitioners may wonder if the observed coverage is truly abnormal or consistent with sampling variation. Inference for realized coverage has received comparatively little attention, especially for time series. We study split conformal prediction with adjacent calibration and test sets of temporally dependent data. Using the functional dependence measure, we derive non-asymptotic bounds on marginal coverage error without mixing assumptions, which can be difficult to verify and may fail even for simple short-memory models. We establish a Bahadur representation to derive, to our knowledge, the first central limit theorem for realized coverage of split conformal prediction under temporal dependence. A consistent block-based estimator of the standard error yields an asymptotically justified test. We further study long-memory time series, which remain understudied in conformal prediction. For Gaussian linear processes, we show how very strong temporal dependence can lead to a non-Gaussian limiting law of realized coverage and establish block-sampling inference with an estimated normalization. The resulting theory explains how temporal dependence changes coverage uncertainty.

math.ST↗

arXiv2026

Geometric Moment Contraction for Stochastic Nesterov Acceleration

We study geometric moment contraction (GMC) of the constant-parameter stochastic Nesterov recursion \[ Y_k=Θ_k+β(Θ_k-Θ_{k-1}),\qquad Θ_{k+1}=Y_k-γG(Y_k,X_{k+1}). \] Under mean strong monotonicity and stochastic $L^p$ Lipschitz continuity, an explicit Perron comparison proves synchronous $L^p$ contraction when $βγL_p<(1-β)(1-q_{γ,p})$. This direct criterion includes infinite-variance gradients for $1 1$, using only a finite $p$th gradient moment. At $p=2$, a simpler explicit certificate gives \[ 0<γ<\frac{2μ(1-β)^2}{L_2^2(1-β+2β^2)}. \] Its quadratic high-momentum scaling is a limitation of the chosen metric, not a sharp stability boundary. We quantify this loss, provide a general mean-only quadratic $S$-procedure, and exploit endpoint Lyapunov inequalities under stronger samplewise sector information. Verified endpoint certificates can be orders of magnitude less conservative than the explicit metric.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

High-dimensional Gaussian Graphical Model Testing for Long-Memory Time Series

Many real-world high-dimensional time series exhibit long-memory, but Gaussian graphical model testing in this regime remains understudied. We develop a direct, data-adaptive test statistic for assessing conditional independence in the graph structure of stationary Gaussian time series. We establish a finite-sample, Berry--Esseen type Gaussian approximation bound for the statistic, which applies to both short-memory and long-memory time series. The testing procedure is fully data-adaptive using block bootstrap method, on which we provide a finite-sample validity result including in the ultra-high-dimensional scenario, and can be extended to comparing graphical structures in two-sample tests. We also develop a consistency-empowered correction to the statistic and show that such tests attain asymptotic consistency in both size and power. Our proposed method is applied to a real-world fMRI data to understand functional connectivities within brain in different periods.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Online simultaneous inference for quantiles via smoothed stochastic gradient descent

This paper considers the estimation of quantiles via a smoothed version of the stochastic gradient descent (SGD) algorithm. By smoothing the score function with a bandwidth tied to the learning rate, we obtain estimates that are monotone in the quantile level at every iteration, while retaining the memory and computational efficiency required for streaming data. We establish non-asymptotic tail probability bounds for the smoothed estimate with and without Polyak-Ruppert averaging, which are sub-exponential with a multi-regime structure. For the averaged estimate we further derive a Bahadur representation that is uniform in the quantile level and across coordinates, and a resulting Gaussian approximation by the maximum of Brownian bridges, with the dimension $p$ allowed to grow exponentially in the sample size. This yields simultaneous inference across coordinates and quantile levels. As an alternative that avoids estimating the sparsity function, we propose an online multiplier bootstrap that preserves monotonicity, runs in a single pass and is asymptotically valid. Extending the theory to a localized recursion, we obtain online nonparametric conditional quantile estimates with uniform bands over design points and quantile levels. Simulations confirm accurate finite-sample coverage, and we illustrate the method on conditional value-at-risk curves.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Bandable Cumulant Tensors: Optimal Estimation and Applications in Non-Gaussian Data Modeling

Higher-order cumulants capture the non-Gaussian dependence that covariance misses, but they are hard to use in high dimensions. An order-$d$ cumulant tensor has $p^d$ entries, and the plug-in sample cumulant is generally not even rate-optimal under the tensor spectral norm. For ordered data, both difficulties admit one remedy: assuming that higher-order interactions decay away from the main tensor diagonal, we introduce a bandable cumulant class and a tapered sample cumulant estimator that computes only $O(pk^{d-1})$ local entries at bandwidth $k$ and never forms the full tensor. Under exponential-type tail conditions, we prove nonasymptotic spectral-norm bounds that separate tapering bias from stochastic error, and a minimax lower bound over the same class that matches the leading bias and stochastic terms of the upper bound; for sub-Gaussian observations, the tapered estimator attains the minimax rate whenever $n\gg(k+\log p)^{d-1}$ at the oracle bandwidth $k$, with the ambient dimension entering only through $\log p$. Localization also suppresses the higher-order fluctuations behind this suboptimality, so tapering plays a stronger role here than in bandable covariance estimation. The spectral-norm guarantee transfers directly to downstream tasks, yielding plug-in error bounds for cumulant Yule--Walker estimation in autoregressive models, minimum-distance estimation in moving-average models, and matched-filter source localization in sensor arrays. Simulations corroborate the theory, and real-data analyses of RR-interval, air-quality, and Neuropixels recordings illustrate the resulting stability gains.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Central Limit Theorems for Stochastic Gradient Descent Quantile Estimators

This paper develops asymptotic theory for quantile estimation via stochastic gradient descent (SGD) with a constant learning rate. The quantile loss function is neither smooth nor strongly convex. Beyond conventional perspectives and techniques, we view quantile SGD iteration as an irreducible, periodic, and positive recurrent Markov chain, which cyclically converges to its unique stationary distribution regardless of the arbitrarily fixed initialization. To derive the exact form of the stationary distribution, we analyze the structure of its characteristic function by exploiting the stationary equation. We also derive tight bounds for its moment generating function (MGF) and tail probabilities. Synthesizing the aforementioned approaches, we prove that the centered and standardized stationary distribution converges to a Gaussian distribution as the learning rate $η\rightarrow0$. This finding provides the first central limit theorem (CLT)-type theoretical guarantees for the quantile SGD estimator with constant learning rates. We further propose a recursive algorithm to construct confidence intervals of the estimators with statistical guarantees. Numerical studies demonstrate the effective finite-sample performance of the online estimator and inference procedure. The theoretical tools developed in this study are of independent interest for investigating general SGD algorithms formulated as Markov chains, particularly in non-strongly convex and non-smooth settings.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Stability beyond Bounded Differences: Sharp Generalization Bounds under Finite $L_p$ Moments

While algorithmic stability is a central tool for understanding generalization of learning algorithms, existing high-probability guarantees typically rely on uniform boundedness or sub-Gaussian/sub-Weibull tail assumptions, which can be overly restrictive for modern settings with heavy-tailed or unbounded losses. We develop a stability-based framework that requires only a finite $L_p$ moment condition. Our first contribution is sharp concentration inequalities for functions of independent random variables under $L_p$ constraints, extending McDiarmid's bounded-differences techniques beyond the classical regime. Leveraging these results, we derive sharp high-probability generalization bounds across a range of learning paradigms, including empirical risk minimization, transductive regression, and meta-learning. These guarantees show that $L_p$ stability suffices for robust generalization even when boundedness fails, substantially weakening the standard assumptions in the stability literature.

stat.ML↗