From Sandbox to Enforcement: Confidence-Qualified Threat Intelligence for Critical Infrastructure

Nikolaos Kekatos; Mihaela Curcă; Georgios Koutidis; Mihai Nena; Tom Nianios; Robert-Ştefan Şandru; Michael Ioannou; Charalambos Bratsas

arXiv · 2610.07310

From Sandbox to Enforcement: Confidence-Qualified Threat Intelligence for Critical Infrastructure

Nikolaos Kekatos·Mihaela Curcă·Georgios Koutidis·Mihai Nena·Tom Nianios·Robert-Ştefan Şandru·Michael Ioannou·Charalambos Bratsas

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Abstract

Security operations centres and national incident-response teams defending critical infrastructure collect abundant threat data yet struggle to turn it into actionable intelligence. A malware sandbox produces detailed behavioural evidence, but as a large, unranked report whose confidence is unstated. We present CG-CTI, an operational pipeline that converts live sandbox output (CAPEv2) into STIX 2.1, correlates it in a knowledge graph with other critical-infrastructure sensors, and attaches to every intelligence object an explicit confidence status derived from provenance, cross-source corroboration, and observation durability. This status gates automated action: only corroborated intelligence is eligible for automated enforcement, while lower-confidence objects are routed to analyst review or kept as context. A grounded language-model stage then narrates the confidence-qualified evidence, where each statement either cites a supporting object or is marked unsupported, so fabricated references are removed before analyst review. We implement CG-CTI within the CYBERGUARD project, whose consortium includes Romania's national cyber-security directorate, and evaluate it against the live sandbox on a labelled malware corpus, measuring conversion validity, indicator yield, technique coverage, corroboration, enforcement eligibility, latency, and summary grounding. CG-CTI turns fragmented sandbox output into corroborated, confidence-ranked, and auditable intelligence for critical-infrastructure defence.

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BibTeX RIS

Nikolaos Kekatos, Mihaela Curcă, Georgios Koutidis, Mihai Nena, Tom Nianios, Robert-Ştefan Şandru, Michael Ioannou, Charalambos Bratsas. 2026-10-05. From Sandbox to Enforcement: Confidence-Qualified Threat Intelligence for Critical Infrastructure. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.07310

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