Uncertainty Evaluation: Bridging Machine Learning and Measurement Science

Dario Petri; Luca Mari

Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 2610.18066

Uncertainty Evaluation: Bridging Machine Learning and Measurement Science

Dario Petri·Luca Mari

View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

Reliable uncertainty evaluation is essential for assessing the trustworthiness of machine learning (ML) predictions, particularly in safety-critical applications. This paper explores conceptual analogies between uncertainty evaluation in ML and measurement science, drawing on the evolution of metrology from error-based approaches to the framework established by the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM). Particular attention is devoted to the distinction between process-level and result-level quality and to the limitations of the conventional classification of ML uncertainty into aleatoric and epistemic components. It is argued that this dichotomy, similarly to the traditional distinction between random and systematic measurement errors, is inherently model-dependent and provides an insufficient basis for a unified uncertainty evaluation framework. Further analogies between machine learning and measurement field of knowledge are identified concerning distribution shifts, anomalous operating conditions, and the validity of uncertainty evaluation. Building on the proposed considerations, the paper advocates a metrology-inspired approach based on the systematic identification, quantification, and propagation of uncertainty contributions. By extending the methodology already established in measurement science to ML, this approach could offer a potentially rigorous, consistent, and transferable framework for evaluating the trustworthiness of individual predictions.

Explore related subjects

cs.LG cs.AI

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeX RIS

Dario Petri, Luca Mari. 2026-10-13. Uncertainty Evaluation: Bridging Machine Learning and Measurement Science. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.18066

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Model Predictive Task Sampling for Efficient and Robust Adaptation

Foundation models have revolutionized general-purpose problem-solving, offering rapid task adaptation through pretraining, meta-training, and finetuning. Recent crucial advances in these paradigms reveal the importance of challenging task prioritized sampling to enhance adaptation robustness under distribution shifts. However, ranking task difficulties over iteration as a preliminary step typically requires exhaustive task evaluation, which is practically unaffordable in computation and data-annotation. This study provides a novel perspective to illuminate the possibility of leveraging the dual importance of adaptation robustness and learning efficiency, particularly in scenarios where task evaluation is risky or costly, such as iterative agent-environment interactions for robotic policy evaluation or computationally intensive inference steps for finetuning foundation models. Firstly, we introduce Model Predictive Task Sampling (MPTS), a framework that bridges the task space and adaptation risk distributions, providing a theoretical foundation for robust active task sampling. MPTS employs a generative model to characterize the episodic optimization process and predicts task-specific adaptation risk via posterior inference. The resulting risk predictive model amortizes the costly evaluation of task adaptation performance and provably approximates task difficulty rankings. MPTS seamlessly integrates into zero-shot, few-shot, and supervised finetuning settings. Empirically, we conduct extensive experiments in pattern recognition using foundation models and sequential decision-making. Our results demonstrate that MPTS significantly enhances adaptation robustness for tail risk or out-of-distribution (OOD) tasks and improves learning efficiency compared to state-of-the-art (SoTA) methods. The code is available at the project site https://github.com/thu-rllab/MPTS.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Asynchronous Sharpness-Aware Minimization For Fast and Accurate Deep Learning

Sharpness-Aware Minimization (SAM) is an optimization method that improves the generalization performance of machine learning models. Despite its effectiveness, it has not been widely adopted in real-world applications due to its high computational cost. Existing approaches reduce this overhead by approximating or reusing gradients in the perturbation step, but still assume sequential perturbation and update steps. In this study, we introduce AsyncSAM, a variant of SAM that enables concurrent model perturbation and parameter updates across multiple compute resources. By adjusting the perturbation batch size in a system-aware manner, our asynchronous scheme fully overlaps perturbation with updates, eliminating the overhead and allowing even CPUs to perform perturbations without extra time. We also provide theoretical analysis showing that AsyncSAM achieves the same order of convergence as conventional SAM. Extensive experiments demonstrate that AsyncSAM delivers superior generalization performance and the highest training throughput among state-of-the-art SAM variants. For example, in ViT fine-tuning on CIFAR-100, it achieves accuracy comparable to SAM while maintaining training time nearly identical to SGD.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Weisfeiler and Leman Follow the Arrow of Time: Expressive Power of Message Passing in Temporal Event Graphs

An important characteristic of temporal graphs is how the directed arrow of time influences their causal topology, i.e., which nodes can possibly influence each other causally via time-respecting paths. The resulting patterns are often neglected by temporal graph neural networks (TGNNs). To formally analyze the expressive power of TGNNs, we lack a generalization of graph isomorphism to temporal graphs that fully captures their causal topology. Addressing this gap, we introduce the notion of consistent event graph isomorphism, which utilizes a time-unfolded representation of time-respecting paths in temporal graphs. We compare this definition with existing notions of temporal graph isomorphisms. We illustrate and highlight the advantages of our approach and develop a temporal generalization of the Weisfeiler-Leman algorithm to heuristically distinguish non-isomorphic temporal graphs. Building on this theoretical foundation, we derive a novel message passing scheme for temporal graph neural networks that operates on the event graph representation of temporal graphs. An experimental evaluation shows that our approach performs well in a temporal graph classification experiment.

cs.LG↗