On the fairness of single round-robin tournaments: Evidence from European football

László Csató; Diána Ivett Fűrész; Zsolt Havran

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arXiv · 2610.21296

On the fairness of single round-robin tournaments: Evidence from European football

László Csató·Diána Ivett Fűrész·Zsolt Havran

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Abstract

Single round-robin tournaments are widely regarded as unfair because of their home-away imbalance: some competitors play more home games than the others. Therefore, most sports leagues are played in a double round-robin format. However, some European football leagues contain a single round-robin (sub)tournament. To test whether empirical data can validate their unfairness, we construct a unique database and develop a strength of schedule metric based on Elo ratings with favourable theoretical properties. In contrast to the robust impact of relative team strength, the strength of schedule is found to have no significant effect on the number of points scored under the assumption of a league-specific home advantage. Consequently, the theoretical unfairness is not a serious issue in practice, or the standard approach of modelling home advantage in Elo ratings might need to be reconsidered.

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László Csató, Diána Ivett Fűrész, Zsolt Havran. 2026-10-15. On the fairness of single round-robin tournaments: Evidence from European football. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.21296

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