Concordance Plausibility Check for Intervention-Conditioned Human Digital Twins

Saeed Farzi; Christopher Kipps; John McBeth; Gabriela Czanner; Sofia Michopoulou; Benjamin Macarthur; Sarah Ennis; Paul Elkington; Nicholas C Harvey; Rahman Attar

arXiv · 2610.24577

Concordance Plausibility Check for Intervention-Conditioned Human Digital Twins

Saeed Farzi·Christopher Kipps·John McBeth·Gabriela Czanner·Sofia Michopoulou·Benjamin Macarthur·Sarah Ennis·Paul Elkington·Nicholas C Harvey·Rahman Attar

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Abstract

Intervention-conditioned human digital twins predict treatment alternatives that cannot be observed in the same patient. Ordinary predictive accuracy therefore cannot establish counterfactual credibility. We propose the Concordance Plausibility Check (CPC), a claim-centered framework combining real-world evidence, qualified simulation and clinical knowledge. CPC matches evidence to the causal claim, audits contradictions and shared dependencies, and reports Pass, Fail or reason-coded Indeterminate.

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BibTeX RIS

Saeed Farzi, Christopher Kipps, John McBeth, Gabriela Czanner, Sofia Michopoulou, Benjamin Macarthur, Sarah Ennis, Paul Elkington, Nicholas C Harvey, Rahman Attar. 2026-10-17. Concordance Plausibility Check for Intervention-Conditioned Human Digital Twins. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.24577

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