GRAIL: From Saliency to Semantics in Time-Series Explanation

Abstract

Explaining a time-series model requires both locating the evidence and extracting meaningful knowledge from it. Yet a single timestep is not a semantic unit: the meaningful patterns live across many samples, not in any one of them. Per-timestep saliency is therefore noisy, high-dimensional, and unstable. Existing methods address this by introducing fixed-size windows and treating them as independent players in a cooperative game. Evaluating a coalition of such players requires defining a ``baseline'' region, which prior work tackles with fixed counterfactuals (e.g., a flat line, noise, or a spectral surrogate). This choice frequently dominates the resulting explanation, obscuring the model's true decisions. To address these issues, we propose GRAIL, a region-based time-series explanation framework that uses domain-specific intervals, such as the P-wave and the QRS complex of an electrocardiogram (ECG) beat, as players. We describe each region with human-readable features and generate counterfactual baselines with an on-manifold conditional generator. Such a choice of players also admits non-temporal features: static covariates enter as singleton players attributed with the temporal regions on one scale, so a patient's tabular evidence (e.g., age, sex) is weighed directly against the signal. We attribute the predictions to the features via Owen values with common-random-number variance reduction. Experimental results on both synthetic and real data show that the proposed framework produces faithful and robust explanations, evaluated under matched on- and off-manifold operators, offering meaningful knowledge to domain experts.