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arXiv · 2610.40418

IMPACT: Inverter-Informed Multimodal Learning for Photovoltaic Generation Forecasting

Anushka Katiyar·Cong Feng·Jing Wang·Tristan Liu·Simon Julien·Zachary Jacobs
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Abstract

This work develops a physics-informed multimodal deep learning framework for 10- to 110-minute-ahead probabilistic photovoltaic power forecasting. The forecasting model is built on a four-branch architecture that separately encodes plant-level temporal history and inverter-level spatial cloud dynamics through a graph attention encoder with a learned adjacency, known-future solar geometry, and the current meteorological state, fused through gated cross-attention. The geometry branch adds two forward-looking physical signals, spatial cloud heterogeneity and inverter ramp-down activity, each empirically weighted toward the horizon where it is most predictive. The decoder anchors its prediction to a smart persistence baseline, learning a horizon-conditioned correction, and the resulting quantile forecasts are calibrated online through a kernel-weighted adaptive conformal calibration step. The proposed model outperforms all 14 baselines, achieving a forecast skill score (FSS) of 0.2950, 0.099 above the next-best model. A branch-composition ablation shows that every branch contributes positively and the model retains substantial skill in challenging overcast and variable sky conditions (FSS 0.198 and 0.255).

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BibTeXRIS

Anushka Katiyar, Cong Feng, Jing Wang, Tristan Liu, Simon Julien, Zachary Jacobs. 2026-10-29. IMPACT: Inverter-Informed Multimodal Learning for Photovoltaic Generation Forecasting. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.40418

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