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Bin Yang

Publications and source records attributed to Bin Yang.

At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources
arXiv2026

Automatic Unsupervised Ensemble Outlier Model Selection--Extended Version

Unsupervised outlier detection is attractive because it eliminates the need for labeled data. Moreover, forming multi-model ensembles can improve detection robustness. However, composing an ensemble without labeled data is challenging. Naively composed ensembles can suffer from ensemble saturation, where redundant or unreliable detection models degrade performance and incur unnecessary computation. We propose MetaEns, an automatic unsupervised framework for selecting ensembles of outlier detection models. Using labeled meta-datasets, MetaEns learns a model that predicts marginal ensemble gains, estimating the expected improvement from adding a candidate model to a partially constructed ensemble. At test time, this learned signal is combined with a submodular-inspired proxy objective that enforces diminishing returns through diversity-aware discounting and family-level risk regularization, thereby enabling greedy sequential selection with adaptive early stopping. As a result, MetaEns constructs compact, high-quality ensembles without access to ground-truth labels. Experiments on 39 real-world datasets show that MetaEns consistently outperforms state-of-the-art unsupervised selectors and ensemble baselines, achieving higher average precision while using fewer models.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

DAG: A Dual Correlation Network for Time Series Forecasting with Exogenous Variables

Time series forecasting is essential in various domains. Compared to relying solely on endogenous variables (i.e., target variables), considering exogenous variables (i.e., covariates) provides additional predictive information and often leads to more accurate predictions. However, existing methods for time series forecasting with exogenous variables (TSF-X) have the following shortcomings: 1) they do not leverage future exogenous variables, 2) they fail to fully account for the correlation between endogenous and exogenous variables. In this study, to better leverage exogenous variables, especially future exogenous variables, we propose DAG, which utilizes Dual correlAtion network along both the temporal and channel dimensions for time series forecasting with exoGenous variables. Specifically, we propose two core components: the Temporal Correlation Module and the Channel Correlation Module. Both modules consist of a correlation discovery submodule and a correlation injection submodule. The former is designed to capture the correlation effects of historical exogenous variables on future exogenous variables and on historical endogenous variables, respectively. The latter injects the discovered correlation relationships into the processes of forecasting future endogenous variables based on historical endogenous variables and future exogenous variables.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Hermes: A Multi-Scale Spatial-Temporal Hypergraph Network for Stock Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting occurs in a range of financial applications providing essential decision-making support to investors, regulatory institutions, and analysts. Unlike multivariate time series from other domains, stock time series exhibit industry correlation. Exploiting this kind of correlation can improve forecasting accuracy. However, existing methods based on hypergraphs can only capture industry correlation relatively superficially. These methods face two key limitations: they do not fully consider inter-industry lead-lag interactions, and they do not model multi-scale information within and among industries. This study proposes the Hermes framework for stock time series forecasting that aims to improve the exploitation of industry correlation by addressing these limitations. The framework integrates moving aggregation and multi-scale fusion modules in a hypergraph network. Specifically, to more flexibly capture the lead-lag relationships among industries, Hermes proposes a hyperedge-based moving aggregation module. This module incorporates a sliding window and utilizes dynamic temporal aggregation operations to consider lead-lag dependencies among industries. Additionally, to effectively model multi-scale information, Hermes employs cross-scale, edge-to-edge message passing to integrate information from different scales while maintaining the consistency of each scale. Experimental results on multiple real-world stock datasets show that Hermes outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Accelerating Langevin Monte Carlo via Efficient Stochastic Runge--Kutta Methods beyond Log-Concavity

Sampling from a high-dimensional probability distribution is a fundamental algorithmic task arising in wide-ranging applications across multiple disciplines, including scientific computing, computational statistics and machine learning. Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC) algorithms are among the most widely used sampling methods in high-dimensional settings. This paper introduces a novel higher-order and Hessian-free LMC sampling algorithm based on an efficient stochastic Runge--Kutta method of strong order $1.5$ for the overdamped Langevin dynamics. In contrast to the existing Runge--Kutta type LMC (Li et al., 2019) involved with three gradient evaluations, the newly proposed algorithm is computationally cheaper and requires only two gradient evaluations for one iteration. Under certain log-smooth conditions, non-asymptotic error bounds of the proposed algorithms are analyzed in $\mathcal{W}_2$-distance. In particular, a uniform-in-time convergence rate of order $O(d ^{\frac32} h^{\frac32})$ is derived in a non-log-concave setting, matching the convergence rate proved in the aforementioned work but under the log-concavity condition. Numerical experiments are finally presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the new sampling algorithm.

math.ST↗
arXiv2026

GCGNet: Graph-Consistent Generative Network for Time Series Forecasting with Exogenous Variables

Exogenous variables offer valuable supplementary information for predicting future endogenous variables. Forecasting with exogenous variables needs to consider both past-to-future dependencies (i.e., temporal correlations) and the influence of exogenous variables on endogenous variables (i.e., channel correlations). This is pivotal when future exogenous variables are available, because they may directly affect the future endogenous variables. Many methods have been proposed for time series forecasting with exogenous variables, focusing on modeling temporal and channel correlations. However, most of them use a two-step strategy, modeling temporal and channel correlations separately, which limits their ability to capture joint correlations across time and channels. Furthermore, in real-world scenarios, time series are frequently affected by various forms of noises, underscoring the critical importance of robustness in such correlations modeling. To address these limitations, we propose GCGNet, a Graph-Consistent Generative Network for time series forecasting with exogenous variables. Specifically, GCGNet first employs a Variational Generator to produce coarse predictions. A Graph Structure Aligner then further guides it by evaluating the consistency between the generated and true correlations, where the correlations are represented as graphs, and are robust to noises. Finally, a Graph Refiner is proposed to refine the predictions to prevent degeneration and improve accuracy. Extensive experiments on 12 real-world datasets demonstrate that GCGNet outperforms state-of-the-art baselines.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

When Langevin Monte Carlo Meets Randomization: New Sampling Algorithms with Non-asymptotic Error Bounds beyond Log-Concavity and Gradient Lipschitzness

Efficient sampling from complex and high dimensional target distributions turns out to be a fundamental task in diverse disciplines such as scientific computing, statistics and machine learning. In this paper, we propose a new kind of randomized splitting Langevin Monte Carlo (RSLMC) algorithm for sampling from high dimensional distributions without log-concavity. Compared with the existing randomized Langevin Monte Carlo (RLMC), the newly proposed RSLMC algorithm requires less evaluations of gradients and is thus computationally cheaper. Under the gradient Lipschitz condition and the log-Sobolev inequality, we prove a uniform-in-time error bound in $\mathcal{W}_2$-distance of order $O(\sqrt{d}h)$ for both RLMC and RSLMC sampling algorithms, which matches the best one in the literature under the log-concavity condition. Moreover, when the gradient of the potential $U$ is non-globally Lipschitz with superlinear growth, new modified R(S)LMC algorithms are introduced and analyzed, with non-asymptotic error bounds established. Numerical examples are finally reported to corroborate the theoretical findings.

stat.ML↗
arXiv2026

Interstellar Object 3I/ATLAS Observed from Mars by China's Tianwen-1 Spacecraft

China's Tianwen-1 Mars orbiter successfully imaged the third interstellar object, 3I/ATLAS, during its close encounter with Mars using the onboard HiRIC CMOS camera. This is China's first deep-space observation of an astronomical object. These observations constitute the first imaging of this object from a vantage point significantly out of its orbital plane, providing a unique constraint on dust dynamics. Three observing epochs between 2025 September 30 and October 3 reveal clear changes in coma and tail morphology driven by the rapidly evolving viewing geometry. Comparison with Finson-Probstein dust dynamical models indicates that the coma is dominated by large grains with solar radiation pressure parameter $β\approx 10^{-3} $ - $10^{-2}$, corresponding to grain sizes of a few 100s $μ$m. The extent of the sunward coma implies dust ejection velocities of $3$ - $10$ m s$^{-1}$. Despite the morphological evolution, the azimuthally averaged surface brightness profile remains nearly unchanged through the three epochs, transitioning from a radial slope near -1 close to the nucleus to slightly steeper than -1.5 at larger cometocentric distances, consistent with steady-state dust outflow accelerated by solar radiation pressure. Photometry yields an average $Afρ\sim (2.0\pm0.2)\times10^4$ cm and a corresponding dust mass loss rate of $\dot{M} \sim 10^3$ kg s$^{-1}$.

astro-ph.EP↗
arXiv2026

The evolution of exocomets and their source populations

We review the current state of knowledge of the long-term evolution of the small bodies that give rise to comets and exocomets, as well as their reservoirs. The active cometary phase is only transitory, and bodies that become comets pass from a source population, such as the Kuiper Belt, Oort Cloud or their extra-solar analogues, through the active cometary phase, to eventual dormancy or destruction. We discuss dynamical delivery channels that can move comets from their source reservoirs to orbits with small periapsides, and the depletion of these reservoirs by dynamical and collisional means. We also discuss the physical evolution of cometary nuclei, especially in light of recent advances from missions to Solar System comets such as Rosetta's visit to 67P. We then describe our current knowledge of interstellar objects, which can originate from the same source regions as exocomets but be amenable to detailed study when they enter the Solar System. We include a summary of stellar winds emanating from different types of stars, which become increasingly strong once stars leave the Main Sequence. This is followed by a description of how small bodies are affected by stellar evolution, and the range of comet-like phenomena observed towards white dwarf stars. Overall, while we have an increasingly good picture of the physical and dynamical evolution of Solar System comets, a number of large gaps remain in our knowledge of the physics of exocomets, related to our inability to directly probe these bodies and many of the planets that might be affecting their orbits.

astro-ph.EP↗
arXiv2026

ARROW: An Adaptive Rollout and Routing Method for Global Weather Forecasting

Weather forecasting is a fundamental task in spatiotemporal data analysis, with broad applications across a wide range of domains. Existing data-driven forecasting methods typically model atmospheric dynamics over a fixed short time interval, e.g., 6 hours, and rely on naive autoregression-based rollout for long-term forecasting, e.g., 5 days. However, this paradigm suffers from two key limitations: (1) it often inadequately models the spatial and multi-scale temporal dependencies inherent in global weather systems, and (2) the rollout strategy struggles to balance error accumulation with the capture of fine-grained atmospheric variations. In this study, we propose ARROW, an Adaptive-Rollout Multi-scale temporal Routing method for Global Weather Forecasting. To contend with the first limitation, we construct a multi-interval forecasting model that forecasts weather across different time intervals. Within the model, the Shared-Private Mixture-of-Experts captures both shared patterns and specific characteristics of atmospheric dynamics across different time scales, while Ring Positional Encoding accurately encodes the circular latitude structure of the Earth when representing spatial information. For the second limitation, we develop an adaptive rollout scheduler based on reinforcement learning, which selects the most suitable time interval to forecast according to the current weather state. Experimental results demonstrate that ARROW achieves state-of-the-art performance in global weather forecasting, establishing a promising paradigm in this field.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Morphology-Consistent Humanoid Interaction through Robot-Centric Video Synthesis

Equipping humanoid robots with versatile interaction skills typically requires either extensive policy training or explicit human-to-robot motion retargeting. However, learning-based policies face prohibitive data collection costs. Meanwhile, retargeting relies on human-centric pose estimation (e.g., SMPL), introducing a morphology gap. Skeletal scale mismatches result in severe spatial misalignments when mapped to robots, compromising interaction success. In this work, we propose Dream2Act, a robot-centric framework enabling zero-shot interaction through generative video synthesis. Given a third-person image of the robot and target object, our framework leverages video generation models to envision the robot completing the task with morphology-consistent motion. We employ a high-fidelity pose extraction system to recover physically feasible, robot-native joint trajectories from these synthesized dreams, subsequently executed via a general-purpose whole-body controller. Operating strictly within the robot-native coordinate space, Dream2Act avoids retargeting errors and eliminates task-specific policy training. We evaluate Dream2Act on the Unitree G1 across four whole-body mobile interaction tasks: ball kicking, sofa sitting, bag punching, and box hugging. Dream2Act achieves a 37.5% overall success rate, compared to 0% for conventional retargeting. While retargeting fails to establish correct physical contacts due to the morphology gap (with errors compounded during locomotion), Dream2Act maintains robot-consistent spatial alignment, enabling reliable contact formation and substantially higher task completion.

cs.RO↗
arXiv2026

Towards Multimodal Time Series Anomaly Detection with Semantic Alignment and Condensed Interaction

Time series anomaly detection plays a critical role in many dynamic systems. Despite its importance, previous approaches have primarily relied on unimodal numerical data, overlooking the importance of complementary information from other modalities. In this paper, we propose a novel multimodal time series anomaly detection model (MindTS) that focuses on addressing two key challenges: (1) how to achieve semantically consistent alignment across heterogeneous multimodal data, and (2) how to filter out redundant modality information to enhance cross-modal interaction effectively. To address the first challenge, we propose Fine-grained Time-text Semantic Alignment. It integrates exogenous and endogenous text information through cross-view text fusion and a multimodal alignment mechanism, achieving semantically consistent alignment between time and text modalities. For the second challenge, we introduce Content Condenser Reconstruction, which filters redundant information within the aligned text modality and performs cross-modal reconstruction to enable interaction. Extensive experiments on six real-world multimodal datasets demonstrate that the proposed MindTS achieves competitive or superior results compared to existing methods. The code is available at: https://github.com/decisionintelligence/MindTS.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

CoRA: Boosting Time Series Foundation Models for Multivariate Forecasting through Correlation-aware Adapter

Most existing Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) use channel independent modeling and focus on capturing and generalizing temporal dependencies, while neglecting the correlations among channels or overlooking the different aspects of correlations. However, these correlations play a vital role in Multivariate time series forecasting. To address this, we propose a CoRrelation-aware Adapter (CoRA), a lightweight plug-and-play method that requires only fine-tuning with TSFMs and is able to capture different types of correlations, so as to improve forecast performance. Specifically, to reduce complexity, we innovatively decompose the correlation matrix into low-rank Time-Varying and Time-Invariant components. For the Time-Varying component, we further design learnable polynomials to learn dynamic correlations by capturing trends or periodic patterns. To learn positive and negative correlations that appear only among some channels, we introduce a novel dual contrastive learning method that identifies correlations through projection layers, regulated by a Heterogeneous-Partial contrastive loss during training, without introducing additional complexity in the inference stage. Extensive experiments on 10 real-world datasets demonstrate that CoRA can improve TSFMs in multivariate forecasting performance.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Uncertainty Matters: Structured Probabilistic Online Mapping for Motion Prediction in Autonomous Driving

Online map generation and trajectory prediction are critical components of the autonomous driving perception-prediction-planning pipeline. While modern vectorized mapping models achieve high geometric accuracy, they typically treat map estimation as a deterministic task, discarding structural uncertainty. Existing probabilistic approaches often rely on diagonal covariance matrices, which assume independence between points and fail to capture the strong spatial correlations inherent in road geometry. To address this, we propose a structured probabilistic formulation for online map generation. Our method explicitly models intra-element dependencies by predicting a dense covariance matrix, parameterized via a Low-Rank plus Diagonal (LRPD) covariance decomposition. This formulation represents uncertainty as a combination of a low-rank component, which captures global spatial structure, and a diagonal component representing independent local noise, thereby capturing geometric correlations without the prohibitive computational cost of full covariance matrices. Evaluations on the nuScenes dataset demonstrate that our uncertainty-aware framework yields consistent improvements in online map generation quality compared to deterministic baselines. Furthermore, our approach establishes new state-of-the-art performance for map-based motion prediction, highlighting the critical role of uncertainty in planning tasks. Code is published under link-available-soon.

cs.RO↗
arXiv2026

Unlocking the Value of Text: Event-Driven Reasoning and Multi-Level Alignment for Time Series Forecasting

Existing time series forecasting methods primarily rely on the numerical data itself. However, real-world time series exhibit complex patterns associated with multimodal information, making them difficult to predict with numerical data alone. While several multimodal time series forecasting methods have emerged, they either utilize text with limited supplementary information or focus merely on representation extraction, extracting minimal textual information for forecasting. To unlock the Value of Text, we propose VoT, a method with Event-driven Reasoning and Multi-level Alignment. Event-driven Reasoning combines the rich information in exogenous text with the powerful reasoning capabilities of LLMs for time series forecasting. To guide the LLMs in effective reasoning, we propose the Historical In-context Learning that retrieves and applies historical examples as in-context guidance. To maximize the utilization of text, we propose Multi-level Alignment. At the representation level, we utilize the Endogenous Text Alignment to integrate the endogenous text information with the time series. At the prediction level, we design the Adaptive Frequency Fusion to fuse the frequency components of event-driven prediction and numerical prediction to achieve complementary advantages. Experiments on real-world datasets across 10 domains demonstrate significant improvements over existing methods, validating the effectiveness of our approach in the utilization of text. The code is made available at https://github.com/decisionintelligence/VoT.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

FedBPrompt: Federated Domain Generalization Person Re-Identification via Body Distribution Aware Visual Prompts

Federated Domain Generalization for Person Re-Identification (FedDG-ReID) learns domain-invariant representations from decentralized data. While Vision Transformer (ViT) is widely adopted, its global attention often fails to distinguish pedestrians from high similarity backgrounds or diverse viewpoints -- a challenge amplified by cross-client distribution shifts in FedDG-ReID. To address this, we propose Federated Body Distribution Aware Visual Prompt (FedBPrompt), introducing learnable visual prompts to guide Transformer attention toward pedestrian-centric regions. FedBPrompt employs a Body Distribution Aware Visual Prompts Mechanism (BAPM) comprising: Holistic Full Body Prompts to suppress cross-client background noise, and Body Part Alignment Prompts to capture fine-grained details robust to pose and viewpoint variations. To mitigate high communication costs, we design a Prompt-based Fine-Tuning Strategy (PFTS) that freezes the ViT backbone and updates only lightweight prompts, significantly reducing communication overhead while maintaining adaptability. Extensive experiments demonstrate that BAPM effectively enhances feature discrimination and cross-domain generalization, while PFTS achieves notable performance gains within only a few aggregation rounds. Moreover, both BAPM and PFTS can be easily integrated into existing ViT-based FedDG-ReID frameworks, making FedBPrompt a flexible and effective solution for federated person re-identification. The code is available at https://github.com/leavlong/FedBPrompt.

cs.CV↗
arXiv2026

ASTGI: Adaptive Spatio-Temporal Graph Interactions for Irregular Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

Irregular multivariate time series (IMTS) are prevalent in critical domains like healthcare and finance, where accurate forecasting is vital for proactive decision-making. However, the asynchronous sampling and irregular intervals inherent to IMTS pose two core challenges for existing methods: (1) how to accurately represent the raw information of irregular time series without introducing data distortion, and (2) how to effectively capture the complex dynamic dependencies between observation points. To address these challenges, we propose the Adaptive Spatio-Temporal Graph Interaction (ASTGI) framework. Specifically, the framework first employs a Spatio-Temporal Point Representation module to encode each discrete observation as a point within a learnable spatio-temporal embedding space. Second, a Neighborhood-Adaptive Graph Construction module adaptively builds a causal graph for each point in the embedding space via nearest neighbor search. Subsequently, a Spatio-Temporal Dynamic Propagation module iteratively updates information on these adaptive causal graphs by generating messages and computing interaction weights based on the relative spatio-temporal positions between points. Finally, a Query Point-based Prediction module generates the final forecast by aggregating neighborhood information for a new query point and performing forecasting. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate that ASTGI outperforms various state-of-the-art methods.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Aurora: Towards Universal Generative Multimodal Time Series Forecasting

Cross-domain generalization is very important in Time Series Forecasting because similar historical information may lead to distinct future trends due to the domain-specific characteristics. Recent works focus on building unimodal time series foundation models and end-to-end multimodal supervised models. Since domain-specific knowledge is often contained in modalities like texts, the former lacks the explicit utilization of them, thus hindering the performance. The latter is tailored for end-to-end scenarios and does not support zero-shot inference for cross-domain scenarios. In this work, we introduce Aurora, a Multimodal Time Series Foundation Model, which supports multimodal inputs and zero-shot inference. Pretrained on Cross-domain Multimodal Time Series Corpus, Aurora can adaptively extract and focus on key domain knowledge contained in corresponding text or image modalities, thus possessing strong cross-domain generalization capability. Through tokenization, encoding, and distillation, Aurora can extract multimodal domain knowledge as guidance and then utilizes a Modality-Guided Multi-head Self-Attention to inject them into the modeling of temporal representations. In the decoding phase, the multimodal representations are used to generate the conditions and prototypes of future tokens, contributing to a novel Prototype-Guided Flow Matching for generative probabilistic forecasting. Comprehensive experiments on 5 well-recognized benchmarks, including TimeMMD, TSFM-Bench, ProbTS, TFB, and EPF, demonstrate the consistent state-of-the-art performance of Aurora on both unimodal and multimodal scenarios.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

GroundGazer: An optical reference system for planar localization with millimeter accuracy at low cost

Highly accurate indoor localization systems with absolute mm positioning accuracy are currently expensive. They include laser trackers, total stations, and motion capture systems relying on multiple high-end cameras. In this work, we introduce a high-accuracy, planar indoor localization system named GroundGazer (GG) for autonomous mobile robots (AMRs). GG estimates the AMR's planar position with mm and its heading with sub-degree accuracy. The system requires only a monocular (fisheye) camera, a chessboard floor, and an optional laser diode. Our system is simple and low-cost due to the chessboard floor, robust, scalable to multiple robots, and extendable to 3D position and orientation estimation.

eess.IV↗