Giordano Paoletti | Search arXiv

arXiv2026

Don't You Know, Pump it Up! Investigating Cryptocurrency Manipulation in Telegram-Driven Activity

Telegram plays a pivotal role in cryptocurrency communication and has been repeatedly associated with coordinated schemes, such as pump-and-dump manipulation. However, existing studies typically focus on known manipulation chats or a limited set of cryptocurrencies, leaving open the question of how Telegram is leveraged for mass promotional activity (shilling) at scale. Moving beyond these limitations, this work analyzes the interplay between information flows and market activity across public Telegram channels. To this end, we propose a scalable framework that (i) classifies crypto-related messages using a fine-tuned encoder model to filter semantic noise, (ii) detects anomalous spikes in cryptocurrency mentions via adaptive thresholding, and (iii) validates temporal associations between social bursts and market movements using quasi-experimental econometric methods (RDD and DiD). We apply this framework to one year of public Telegram data (14,499 channels and over 20 million messages) aligned with transaction data for more than 17,000 cryptocurrencies. Our analysis identifies 47 events consistent with potential pump-and-dump activity and 73 sustained market reactions, showing that manipulative signals are characterized by extreme temporal synchronization and precede price movements by seconds. Notably, psycholinguistic analysis reveals that pump-and-dump messages are linguistically indistinguishable from organic discussions, highlighting the limits of text-based detection alone. Finally, we estimate the cumulative financial volume of detected pump-and-dump events to exceed $200 million and release a public cryptocurrency dictionary and a fine-tuned classifier to support future research.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2025

Join the Chat: How Curiosity Sparks Participation in Telegram Groups

This study delves into the mechanisms that spark user curiosity driving active engagement within public Telegram groups. By analyzing approximately 6 million messages from 29,196 users across 409 groups, we identify and quantify the key factors that stimulate users to actively participate (i.e., send messages) in group discussions. These factors include social influence, novelty, complexity, uncertainty, and conflict, all measured through metrics derived from message sequences and user participation over time. After clustering the messages, we apply explainability techniques to assign meaningful labels to the clusters. This approach uncovers macro categories representing distinct curiosity stimulation profiles, each characterized by a unique combination of various stimuli. Social influence from peers and influencers drives engagement for some users, while for others, rare media types or a diverse range of senders and media sparks curiosity. Analyzing patterns, we found that user curiosity stimuli are mostly stable, but, as the time between the initial message increases, curiosity occasionally shifts. A graph-based analysis of influence networks reveals that users motivated by direct social influence tend to occupy more peripheral positions, while those who are not stimulated by any specific factors are often more central, potentially acting as initiators and conversation catalysts. These findings contribute to understanding information dissemination and spread processes on social media networks, potentially contributing to more effective communication strategies.

cs.SI↗