arXiv subjects

Tim Lichtenberg

Publications and source records attributed to Tim Lichtenberg.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Super-Earth Interiors Shrink by About 10% as They Crystallise

Super-Earth exoplanets are among the most abundant planets known, yet their bulk densities leave the interior state degenerate. The static structure models used to interpret them, and the interior retrievals built on them, typically describe the cold, solidified end state of an evolution that begins hot and molten. During this magma ocean stage the interior, the outgassed atmosphere, and the surface co-evolve and set the long-term climate and geophysics of super-Earths. We develop and validate a fully coupled model for the structural and thermal evolution of super-Earth exoplanets within the PROTEUS framework, including new and upgraded models of the interior structure, mantle energetics, and volatile outgassing. In volatile-poor super-Earths of 1 to 10 Earth masses, the silicate interior contracts by about 10 % of its molten radius through cooling and crystallisation, nearly independent of planet mass and driven by the thinning silicate shell alone. The solidified radius is set by planetary mass and core fraction, insensitive to the host star, irradiation, and initial thermal state. In contrast, volatile-rich super-Earths at and above about 5 Earth masses may not solidify: their thick outgassed atmospheres throttle the surface heat loss until the interior settles into a deep magma ocean, keeping the planet inflated and limiting the contraction to about half its volatile-poor value. Mantle contraction alone thus shapes the low-mass exoplanet transit population, motivating joint interpretation of atmospheric and geophysical signatures in upcoming exoplanet surveys.

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arXiv2026

Thermal Evolution of Lava Planets Across System Ages: Predictions for Hell of a Survey

Ultra-short-period (USP) rocky exoplanets can have dayside temperatures high enough to maintain permanent magma oceans, sitting at the intersection of interior geophysics and atmospheric chemistry. Coupled feedbacks between the molten surface and outgassed atmosphere can sustain or enhance a volatile envelope, while stellar interactions can erode it. Understanding which outcome prevails, and its observable imprint, requires a multi-target approach across planets at different stages of thermal evolution. We present predictions for the five targets of JWST Cycle 4 program 8864: TOI-1807 b, TOI-2260 b, TOI-431 b, TOI-6255 b, and TOI-2431 b. Using the PROTEUS coupled interior-atmosphere framework, we construct a simulation grid and classify outcomes into six categories, defined by the final interior melt state and by whether the planet retains a detectable atmosphere thick enough to redistribute heat to the nightside. For targets retaining a non-negligible volatile envelope, our models predict higher partial pressures for most species when the surface is molten, except for S$_{2}$, whose enhancement in the solid regime suggests it may serve as a tracer of interior melt state. Despite some targets showing outcomes across multiple scenarios, most tend toward a bare-rock end-member, with global melt fraction $\leq$ 20\% and atmospheric retention sensitive to escape efficiency. Our analysis reveals a minimum escape efficiency threshold below which volatile envelopes survive under energy-limited escape, constraining the conditions required for atmosphere survival on irradiated rocky planets. These predictions will guide interpretation of MIRI-LRS phase curve observations and identify which targets and features best discriminate between competing geophysical states.

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arXiv2026

No statistically significant evidence for a correlation between stellar and planetary composition

The chemical compositions of planets and their hosts stars are intrinsically linked, having formed from the same protostellar material. Characterising this relationship provides key constraints on the processes governing planetary formation and evolution. Focusing on host stars with near-solar chemical abundances limits our understanding of how planetary composition varies across a broader chemical parameter space. Expanding the sample to include stars with compositions markedly different from the Sun is therefore essential for building a complete picture of star--planet compositional connections. Here, we focus specifically on iron-poor hosts since they are more likely to be alpha-enhanced and represent some of the most chemically distinct stars relative to the Sun (i.e., thick disc stars). We present a sample of 45 stars hosting 64 planets across the super-Earth and sub-Neptune regimes, for which we homogeneously obtain new stellar parameters including abundances, re-derive planetary mass and radius, and model the bulk interior compositions of their planetary companions. No statistically significant evidence for a correlation between stellar and planetary composition was found in our sample. We suggest that this null result is primarily driven by the large uncertainties inherent to both compositional proxies, which may obscure an underlying relationship. Quantifying these uncertainties is therefore a critical step that previous studies have not fully addressed. Furthermore, even with improved precision, uncovering such a relation may require a higher-dimensional treatment that accounts for additional parameters such as planetary equilibrium temperature.

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arXiv2026

Evolutionary pathways toward survival of a thick CO2- or SO2-rich atmosphere on the lava world TOI-561 b

Rocky planets evolve through the exchange of volatiles between their interiors and atmospheres, an interplay still poorly constrained by observations. Remarkably, highly irradiated ultrashort-period (USP) exoplanets may offer a window into this exchange -- some retain low bulk densities compatible with volatile-rich envelopes surrounding rocky interiors, indicating possible secondary atmospheres. TOI-561 b is a prime example, with a bulk density of $4.3\pm0.4$ g cm$^{-3}$ and recent JWST observations favoring a thick volatile atmosphere overlying a dayside magma ocean. Here, we investigate the evolutionary pathways allowing TOI-561 b to retain a substantial atmosphere over gigayears using the PROTEUS coupled interior--atmosphere framework. We explore different core radius fractions, Bond albedos, atmospheric escape efficiencies, mantle redox states, and initial C--H--O--N--S volatile inventories, under in situ evolution and late inward migration. Over half of our simulations leave a bare interior too dense to match observations. Successful cases favor a volatile-rich origin ($\lesssim200$ Earth oceans of hydrogen, S/H $\le10$, and N/H $\le1$), an oxidized mantle ($f$O$_2 \gtrsim \mathrm{IW}+4$), a small iron core ($\le 0.40$ for the core radius fraction), and low escape efficiency ($ε\lesssim 10^{-3}$) in the hydrodynamic escape regime. At present, TOI-561 b is consistent with a global magma ocean beneath a thick (surface pressure $\approx 10^{3}$--$10^{4}$ bar), high mean molecular weight atmosphere ($38$--$60$ g mol$^{-1}$). Two archetypes emerge, differentiated by bulk sulfur content: a CO$_2$-dominated and an SO$_2$-dominated atmosphere. Migration is viable but not required to reproduce the observations. Our study illustrates how interior--atmosphere coupling governs atmospheric retention on irradiated rocky planets.

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arXiv2026

Atmospheric escape fractionates secondary but not primary atmospheres

A planet's atmosphere, heated by starlight, can flow off as a wind, taking some gases and leaving others in unknown proportions. Yet this selection wrote the noble-gas records of the terrestrial planets, and decides which gases hot exoplanets keep. We solve this fractionated escape problem for arbitrary composition: a wind sorts gases only for secondary, hydrogen-poor atmospheres, and removes primary, hydrogen-rich atmospheres wholesale. The algebraic solution recovers every published formula as special cases. It provides a unified interpretation of atmospheric evolution across the Solar System and exoplanets. Fractionating argon on Mars stripped carbon while sparing krypton, Venus' retained argon constrains the wind intensity that removed its water, Earth's xenon record excludes a neutral wind. The same solution ranks the rocky exoplanets under JWST observation by the gases they can keep.

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arXiv2026

A Highly Reflective Atmosphere on the Lava World TOI-561b Revealed by JWST/NIRSpec Phase Curve

Ultra-short period (USP) rocky planets are expected to be depleted of any substantial gaseous envelope due to the intense irradiation they receive from their host star, making the recent detection of an atmosphere around TOI-561~b particularly surprising. That finding was based on the planet's bulk density and dayside emission spectrum, but full-orbit phase curve observations offer a more comprehensive way to constrain the presence and characteristics of a planet's atmosphere. In this paper, we map TOI-561~b's 3-5~$μ$m emission using JWST/NIRSpec multi-orbit spectroscopic phase curves, explicitly accounting for the curvature of the out-of-eclipse baseline and possible hotspot offsets. From a simple energy balance argument as well as comparing to general circulation models, we find the phase curve observations are best explained with high Bond albedo and moderate global heat transfer. Our 37-hour continuous observation provides a long baseline that allows us to model stellar granulation, the planetary phase curve, and dayside emission simultaneously, effectively disentangling these signals and yielding a dayside emission spectrum that is more robust against stellar variability and consistent with previous eclipse-only fits. Using general circulation model outputs, we constrain where clouds can plausibly form and test candidate compositions, finding that silicate clouds, such as SiO$_2$ and MgSiO$_3$, can form on the dayside near the terminator and explain the observed albedo. Our findings confirm that TOI-561~b appears to have a global reflective atmosphere, suggesting exchange of volatiles with the interior to maintain it.

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arXiv2026

Beyond the mass-radius plane: Integrated radiative-convective and interior structure simulations of the exoplanet continuum

Static structure models, which map mass-radius constraints to bulk planet composition, are frequently used to categorise exoplanets due to their computational efficiency and the high-level insight they offer into planetary properties. However, static structure models typically have simplified atmospheric treatments, which may introduce systematic biases when interpreting the structures - and therefore the climates - of sub-Neptunes and super-Earths. We present a framework for recovering exoplanet properties using static structure models that accounts for necessary physical-chemical complexity in their atmospheres. We produce a comprehensive library of 504,000 exoplanet simulations that unify deep planetary interior structure with radiative-convective-chemical climate calculations. From these models we demonstrate that a planet's envelope mass fraction - a critical parameter to infer - is frequently degenerate with its instellation flux and atmospheric metallicity, and sensitive to the treatment of gravitational acceleration at the mbar level. Such uncertainties have significant implications for inferring planetary processes, as our modelling shows that habitable-zone sub-Neptunes readily host supercritical surfaces or deep magma oceans, despite their temperate irradiation regime. To marginalise over these uncertainties, we introduce a Bayesian retrieval tool that uses our library of self-consistent models. By applying this Bayesian approach to case-studies of pi Men c and TOI-421 b, we show that robust physical interpretations are achievable through whole-planet mass-radius retrievals. While new data from JWST, Ariel, and PLATO will expand our observational horizon, physically-consistent modelling provides the means to transition from categorical interpretations toward a comprehensive picture of the exoplanet continuum.

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arXiv2026

Characterizing the oxidation state of rocky exoplanets with the Large Interferometer for Exoplanets (LIFE)

The oxidation state of rocky exoplanets is expected to play a fundamental role in shaping the chemical composition of their secondary atmospheres by influencing the chemical composition of volcanically released gasses. Distinguishing planetary redox states through direct atmospheric characterization would offer insight into the formation and evolution of secondary atmospheres on exoplanets and inform the background chemistry of putative biosignatures. The Large Interferometer For Exoplanets (LIFE) mission concept aims to employ a space-based mid-infrared nulling interferometer to characterize exoplanetary atmospheres. In this work, we assess LIFE's performance in distinguishing the redox states of rocky exoplanets by direct spectroscopic measurements. We focus on the observability and spectral features of redox-sensitive molecules in secondary atmospheres of Earth-sized exoplanets. We develop and apply a retrieval framework based on the ARtful modeling Code for exoplanet Science (ARCiS) and the LIFE mission simulator (LIFEsim) to simulate observations of Earth-sized planets with atmospheres from a range of plausible mantle redox conditions. Our simulations show that LIFE in its baseline configuration can successfully constrain dominant atmospheric species (e.g. CO2, CH4 and NH3) with sufficient accuracy to distinguish redox states for planets orbiting a Sun-like star at 10 pc. Retrieved redox-sensitive molecules show clear trends across oxidation states, with CO2 dominating in oxidizing (with oxygen fugacity fO2 $\sim$ IW+2 to IW+6, where IW is the iron-w$ü$stite buffer) environments and NH3 in reducing (fO2 $\sim$ IW-2 to IW-6) environments, and CH4 serving as a strong tracer among intermediate (fO2 $\sim$ IW+4 to IW-4) oxidation states.

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arXiv2026

Constraining the lives and times of exoplanets through evolutionary Bayesian retrievals

Static retrieval frameworks are leading tools for interpreting exoplanet observations, yet time-independent modelling leaves them prone to degeneracy and unable to resolve exoplanets' histories. The compositions and structures of surveyed super-Earth and sub-Neptune sub-populations remain unclear, but are shaped by physics acting across Gyr timescales. Interpreting these planets as static non-evolving snapshots allows multiple degenerate scenarios to explain their observed properties. We develop a generalised parameter retrieval framework, built on asynchronous Bayesian optimisation to efficiently dispatch a multi-physics forward-model, resolving exoplanets' evolving properties from their initial magma ocean conditions to the present day. By building Bayesian retrievals into the PROTEUS framework, sensitive coupled interior-atmosphere interactions are naturally resolved and interpretations are constrained to physically permissible scenarios. We test evolutionary retrievals with three exoplanet prototypes: a young sub-Neptune, an older super-Earth, and a warm terrestrial planet - representative of the surveyed exoplanet population. Evolutionary retrieval jointly infers their mantle redox conditions, metallic core fractions, and early volatile inventories from spectroscopically accessible observables. Some scenarios remain subject to well-established degeneracies between core fractions and volatile budgets. Terrestrial-mass exoplanets benefit from strong observable-parameter correlations that lift these degeneracies; we recover post-formation volatile inventories with <20 percent error. Exoplanet science is primed for incoming JWST, PLATO, Roman, and ELT data - observations which necessitate careful interpretation. Adoption of time-evolved models lifts interpretive degeneracies, providing the means to understand the deep interiors and lifetime histories of worlds throughout our galaxy.

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arXiv2026

PALEOS: Multiphase equations of state and mass-radius relations for exoplanet interiors

Modeling the interior of a rocky or water-rich exoplanet is a thermodynamic closure problem: every layer's density, temperature gradient, and phase must follow from an equation of state (EoS) that remains self-consistent across the pressure-temperature range from surface to core. Existing EoS span disciplines, use different formalisms, and rarely supply the full thermodynamic quantities needed by evolutionary models of interior phase transitions. We present PALEOS (Planetary Assemblage Layers: Equations of State), an open-source toolkit consolidating EoS for iron, magnesium silicate (MgSiO$_3$), and water (H$_2$O) into a unified, phase-aware, thermally responsive framework spanning 17 phases. PALEOS derives density, energy, entropy, heat capacities, thermal expansion, and the adiabatic gradient analytically via Maxwell relations, and is released as lookup tables on regular P-T grids. We validate it against the Preliminary Reference Earth Model, recovering Earth's radius to 0.3% and lower-mantle densities to 3%, and compute 17,900 mass-radius relations from 0.1 to 100 $M_\oplus$ for rocky (Fe + MgSiO$_3$) and water-rich (Earth-like core + H$_2$O envelope) compositions at 300-4000 K. Continuous solid-to-melt EoS let thermal expansion span the fully-solid to magma-ocean regime: the radius offset exceeds 1% above 1500 K and reaches 16% at 4000 K for low-mass silicate planets, comparable to composition degeneracy and transit-radius uncertainties. We demonstrate this on two ultrashort-period super-Earths, WASP-47 e and TOI-1807 b: each admits two purely rocky solutions indistinguishable in mass and radius but in radically different states, one fully solid with no dynamo, the other hosting a deep magma ocean and a liquid iron core capable of sustaining a magnetic field. Phase-aware, thermally resolved EoS are essential for translating astronomical observations into exoplanetary geophysics.

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arXiv2026

Planetesimal Formation Across the Stellar Mass Spectrum and its Influence on Exoplanet-Inherited Volatile Budgets

Protoplanetary discs emerging from collapsing molecular clouds are capable of forming planetesimals at the water snowline during both the cloud collapse and Class II disc phases; such a scenario could be responsible for creating the carbonaceous/non-carbonaceous (CC/NC) heterogeneity observed in the Solar System, and bears important implications for emergent planetary compositions. We use 1D simulations of a viscously evolving disc coupled with cloud collapse and planetesimal formation to explore how planetesimal formation during disc build-up varies across the stellar mass spectrum. We find a keen sensitivity of planetesimal formation timing, location, and outcomes on stellar mass. Discs around all investigated stellar masses form planetesimals in the Class II phase, but only the disc around low-mass M-dwarfs ($M_{\star}=0.1 M_{\odot}$) fails to form them during the infall phase. There is also a clear chemical heterogeneity in planetesimal populations (water-wet and dry) in discs born from clouds of $M_{\rm{cloud}} \geq 0.3M_{\odot}$ . Discs around low-mass M-dwarfs form and undergo extremely fast pebble drift (t < 2 Myr), forming planetesimals well within the half-life of Aluminium-26. This leads to dehydrated planetesimals in all M-dwarf disc formation cases considered. We argue that the variation in disc evolution across stellar mass makes it hard to pinpoint a common t = 0 for all discs, and that exoplanets emerging from dehydrated planetesimals around low-mass M-dwarfs will be born volatile-poor - potentially explaining the lack of rocky world atmospheres seen by JWST.

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arXiv2026

Atmospheric evolution through outgassing and escape on young molten rocky exoplanets

The earliest rocky planet atmospheres are shaped by competition between initial volatile inventories and atmospheric escape. On young magma ocean planets, outgassing competes with atmospheric escape, controlling volatile retention and atmospheric evolution. We investigate how atmospheric escape and replenishment via outgassing during magma ocean crystallization shape rocky planet atmospheres. We extend a coupled interior-atmosphere model to simulate rocky planet evolution during the magma ocean era by incorporating an energy-limited atmospheric escape module. Comparing radiative-convective and prescribed-convective atmospheres, we quantify how atmospheric energy transport affects escape. We explore a wide range of orbital separations, escape efficiencies, oxidation states, and initial volatile inventories to identify regimes where sustained magma-ocean outgassing or escape dominates. We estimate atmospheric loss and compositions for young rocky planets around Sun-like and M-dwarf stars over geologic timescales. Atmospheric escape shortens magma ocean lifetimes by weakening greenhouse insulation. Radiative-convective atmospheres reduce solidification timescales compared to purely convective cases. Volatile dissolution into the magma ocean interacts with escape to chemically fractionate the planetary volatile budget over time by retaining more soluble species. For Earth-mass planets, atmospheres survive if loss rates remain moderate. Mantle redox state remains a key control on retained atmospheric composition: high oxygen fugacity (fO2) yields heavier, H2O- and CO2-rich atmospheres, while low fO2 produces light, H2- or CO-dominated atmospheres, consistent with previous studies. Orbital separation, initial volatile inventory, and stellar type produce diverse evolutionary pathways, from bare rocky planets to magma oceans with thick atmospheres, ranging from H2- to SO2-dominated.

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arXiv2026

Sulfur photochemistry observationally traces mantle redox states of rocky planets

Volatile outgassing from planetary interiors controls the composition of rocky exoplanets' secondary atmospheres. However, observations indicate that disequilibrium processes, such as photochemistry and vertical transport, can strongly alter the chemical structure of Hot Jupiters. Which process dominates under different types of rocky planets, and how outgassing and photochemistry jointly determine the atmospheric composition, remain open questions. Sulfur species are promising tracers of interior-atmosphere coupling because their atmospheric abundances are sensitive to both mantle redox state and stellar irradiation. The PROTEUS planetary interior-atmosphere evolution modelling framework is coupled to two chemical models, FastChem and VULCAN, for post-processed chemistry calculations. We run a grid of planetary evolution simulations spanning diverse mantle redox states, instellation fluxes, and Solar versus M-star host-star spectra. For each case, we compare atmospheric compositions under thermochemical equilibrium, only vertical transport, and vertical transport plus photochemistry. The bulk atmospheric composition remains controlled by the redox state of the mantle and outgassing history, even when disequilibrium chemistry is included. Reduced mantles produce atmospheres rich in H2, and oxidised mantles are dominated by CO2. Photochemistry affects the upper atmosphere, strongly depleting neutral volatiles and enhancing radicals, especially for highly irradiated cases. SO2 is strongly enhanced at intermediate-to-oxidised redox states. Synthetic emission spectra show that photochemical SO2 can generate absorption features at 4 um and at 7.3 / 8.7 um, reaching ~60 ppm and ~100 ppm, before sequentially returning to the outgassed signatures of ~30 ppm and ~50 ppm for the oxidised mantle redox state. These signatures are detectable with JWST, motivating targeted observational campaigns.

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arXiv2026

Reflation: redox-driven atmospheric inflation as tracer of super-Earth geochemistry

We demonstrate that the redox-sensitivity of mantle outgassing can trigger transient episodes of atmospheric re-inflation in highly irradiated and geochemically-reduced super-Earths, a mechanism we term reflation. Mantle redox governs the outgassing and speciation of CHONS volatiles, setting the background secondary atmospheric composition during extended photoevaporation at highly irradiated conditions. Using simulations of the coupled atmosphere-interior evolution of irradiated super-Earths, we illustrate that reduced mantles close to the iron-wustite buffer initially produce CO-dominated atmospheres. Hydrodynamic escape continuously removes volatiles while outgassing from the melt replenishes the atmosphere with H2, converted from H2O dissolved in the underlying magma ocean. This leads to a late-stage transition from C- to H-dominated gas that transiently re-inflates super-Earth atmospheres and decreases their bulk densities by up to $\sim$60$\%$ between several hundreds of Myr to Gyr after their formation, prior to complete atmospheric erosion by photoevaporation. In contrast, oxidised mantles, closer to Earth-like geochemistry, strongly buffer their atmospheric composition while exposed to hydrodynamic escape, producing monotonic radius deflation. Reflation events are triggered by geochemically-reduced mantles, intermediate escape efficiencies, high irradiation, and initial water inventories $\gtrsim$ 5 Earth oceans. This redox-dependent evolutionary divergence hinges on the sensitive feedback between interior and atmospheric evolution serving as a potential tracer of historical geochemical state. Population-level reflation signatures of close-in super-Earths may thus serve as tracers of interior geochemistry and formation conditions.

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arXiv2026

Coupled atmospHere Interior modeL Intercomparison (CHILI). I. Evolutionary Modelling -- Primordial Magma Oceans of Earth and Venus

Earth and Venus represent two evolutionary outcomes arising from initially molten 'magma ocean' periods, followed by lifetimes of chemical and geophysical divergence. Their physics is common to all rocky planets and is accessible to simulations that adopt coupled interior-atmosphere modelling approaches. Our understanding of planet histories and interpretation of current states is dependent on this modelling, yet existing codes vary in their approximations. Here, we present the first results from the Coupled atmospHere Interior modeL Intercomparison (CHILI) project; benchmarking planetary evolution codes in the context of Earth and Venus to identify key model sensitivities. Our 'nominal' Earth models predict magma ocean solidification timescales within 4 Myr of thermal evolution, and are consistent with empirical constraints on Earth's early history. Venus scenarios exhibit more diverse behaviours where prolonged magma ocean stages can be conditionally sustained for 50 Myr. Cooling timescales correlate with initial hydrogen and carbon budgets, but model-specific treatments of volatile partitioning and vertical energy transport introduce substantial inter-model variance. Different parametrisations of mantle geodynamics, convection, melting curves, rheological properties, and radiative transfer give rise to divergent evolutionary behaviours. Discrepancies in atmospheres generated by magma ocean outgassing underscore these differences, although C-H-O compositions with surface pressures exceeding 100 bar are favoured. This intercomparison identifies critical sensitivities in volatile partitioning, escape processes, mantle viscosity, and melting. Validating these treatments is essential for enabling deep insight into the early histories of the Solar System's terrestrial planets, and for drawing meaningful interpretations from ongoing observational exoplanet campaigns.

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arXiv2026

Geophysical and atmospheric implications of $f$O$_{2}$-dependent melting on rocky exoplanets

The geochemical evolution of long-lived magma oceans is strongly regulated by volatile exchange between the molten mantle and the atmosphere. For planets inside the runaway-greenhouse limit, this coupled evolution can persist for billions of years. However, most existing studies assume Earth-like (oxidized) conditions and neglect the influence of redox state on melt thermodynamics and volatile release. We quantified how experimentally derived, oxygen-fugacity-dependent melting curves implemented within the coupled interior-atmosphere framework PROTEUS propagate into the thermal structure, melt fraction, and rheological evolution of rocky exoplanet interiors, applying this to the short-period super-Earth GJ 1132 b. We found strongly non-linear thermal responses to variations in melting curves. In volatile-poor systems, reduced melting curves promote earlier deep-mantle crystallisation relative to oxidised and Earth-like cases, favouring late-stage surface magma oceans sustained by greenhouse warming, while oxidized melting curves maintain higher melt fractions and a vertically extended magma ocean. Reduced mantles produce massive H$_2$-CO-rich atmospheres; oxidized mantles favour thinner H$_2$O-CO$_2$ envelopes. In volatile-rich systems, the interior reaches radiative equilibrium at high melt fractions, sustaining a steady-state global magma ocean in which melting curve variations do not significantly influence solidification timing. This indicates a hierarchical control: volatile inventory and surface oxygen fugacity act as the primary regulators of thermal state, while oxygen-fugacity-dependent melting relations provide a secondary modulation. These contrasting regimes produce distinct atmospheric compositions and formation timescales, offering testable spectral predictions for close-in rocky exoplanets evaluable with forthcoming JWST observations.

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arXiv2026

Most Rocky Sub-Neptunes are Molten: Mapping the Solidification Shoreline for Gas Dwarf Exoplanets

Sub-Neptunes are the most common type of detected exoplanet, yet their observed masses and radii are degenerate with several interior structures. One possibility is that sub-Neptunes have silicate/iron interiors and H$_2$-dominated atmospheres ($μ$<3.8 g mol$^{-1}$), i.e., they are 'gas dwarfs'. If gas dwarfs have molten interiors, interactions between their magma oceans and atmospheres will produce distinct observational signatures. These signatures may break the degeneracy in interior structure, while providing insight into their interior processes, history, and population trends. We expect all such planets are born molten, but under what conditions do they remain molten today? We use the coupled interior-climate evolution model, PROTEUS, to estimate the 'solidification shoreline': the instellation flux boundary (as a function of stellar $T_{\rm eff}$) that separates molten gas dwarfs from solidified ones. Our results show that 98% of detected sub-Neptunes occupy a region of parameter space consistent with their having permanent magma oceans, if they are gas dwarfs. While mantle $f{\rm O}_2$ and bulk volatile C/H ratio both influence magma ocean cooling, planets with oxidising mantles and carbon-rich atmospheres are likely to have high mean-molecular weight atmospheres ($μ$>3.8 g mol$^{-1}$) and are thus outside the scope of this study. Therefore, most detected sub-Neptunes, if they are gas dwarfs, have permanent magma oceans. This result motivates further research into the interactions between molten interiors and overlying atmospheres, and campaigns to identify unambiguous signatures of these interactions.

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arXiv2026

The Goldilocks problem for detecting water in terrestrial planets: Constraining water abundances in the mid-IR with LIFE

We investigate how well the Large Interferometer for Exoplanets (LIFE) mission concept can detect habitable conditions on exoplanets through the presence of atmospheric water vapor as a proxy for surface oceans. We model the atmosphere of a pre-biotic Earth-like planet across a range of water concentrations, from water-poor to water-rich, with surface partial pressures from 10$^{-7}$ to 1 bar of H$_2$O. We simulate LIFE-like noise at spectral resolutions R = 50 and 100 using LIFEsim and perform Bayesian atmospheric retrievals to determine the technical requirements for LIFE to confirm habitability. We model three vertical water distributions: a vertically constant profile, a Manabe-Wetherald based Earth-like profile, and a diffusion and photochemistry profile to test how the assumed vertical structure influences the retrieved abundances. Clouds are not modeled. We find the ability for LIFE to detect water strongly depends on the vertical profile assumed. LIFE is unable to constrain the highest water cases and provides upper limits on low water planets. For the highest water abundances, absorption features saturate and reduce sensitivity to characterize precise H$_2$O levels. Water vapor is not detectable in any profile modeled for $\leq10^{-6}$ bar in surface water, comparable to Mars. For an Earth-like profile, LIFE could constrain H$_2$O concentrations from $\sim10^{-3}$ to 1 bar, spanning below and above present-day Earth concentrations of 10$^{-2}$ bar. Detectable atmospheric water may imply surface oceans, as water is highly reactive and rapidly removed by surface mineral reactions. Thus, LIFE can characterize water abundances indicative of habitable surface conditions.

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