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stat.ML: explore 71 source-linked works published from 2023 to 2026, with original documents and citations.

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Includes records with this source-supplied label or an explicit phrase match in their metadata. Matches indicate a mention, not proof that a paper uses a method or tests a material. Source versions are consolidated by DOI.

Sources: arxiv. Collection updated 2026-09-15. Counts describe this index, not the complete source archives.

Simultaneous Monitoring of Shape and Surface Color via 4D Point Clouds: A Registration-free Approach

Advanced manufacturing technologies allow for the production of intricate parts featuring high shape complexity and spatially-varying material composition. Data fusion of point clouds with chromatic attributes provides 4D point clouds, a compact and informative representation that encodes both shape and material information. In this paper, we present a registration-free framework for Simultaneous Monitoring of shApe and Color (SMAC) via 4D point clouds. The proposed framework leverages Laplace-Beltrami operator spectral properties to capture and monitor geometric features and the relationship between shape and surface color. A combined monitoring scheme is proposed to effectively detect shape deformations and color anomalies, along with a spatially-aware post-signal diagnostic procedure to determine the source of change and localize color anomalies. Importantly, neither component relies on registration or mesh reconstruction, eliminating error-prone and computationally expensive preprocessing steps. A Monte Carlo simulation study and a case study on functionally graded materials demonstrate that SMAC achieves effective detection performance, particularly for subtle defects, while providing diagnostic capabilities to identify the source and location of anomalies.

cs.CV

Cultural Bias Without a Cultural Self:A Disassociation Study of LLM's Persona and Bias

Language models prompted with cultural personas increasingly stand in for human respondents in cross-cultural research. Their responses separate personas cleanly, and that separation is read as evidence of a cultural point of view. We show that the separation is real, that the point of view is not, and that one criterion tells them apart. A trait is structure internal to one respondent that survives a change of measurement frame; a bias needs only group-specific item means. To test for the first, we represent a single response set as an Item--Dimension matrix and treat its correlation matrix as a point on the manifold of symmetric positive definite matrices. In humans this carries what a trait should: it reproduces across test--retest sessions sharing no items, order or context ($r=0.77$, $N=89$); on public NEO-PI-R data it identifies individuals at up to $76\%$ against a $0.4\%$ chance level ($N=263$); and it predicts GPA ($R^2=0.281$, $p=0.003$) where BigFive aggregates from the same responses predict nothing ($R^2=0.018$). In four frontier LLMs it returns nothing. Persona structure is readable only while every instance shares one item order: give each its own order and separation falls from $94.7\%$ to chance, while realigning instances to \emph{any} shared random order restores it to $82$--$84\%$. Responses generated independently item by item, with no latent structure, reproduce the entire pattern. The cultural signal is a group template, not a property of any instance, and alignment regimes differ only in which stereotype survives on the surface.

stat.ML

Which Metrics Save the Most Human Annotation? Prediction-Powered Evaluation and Meta-Evaluation

Across various non-verifiable tasks, human evaluation is reliable but expensive, while automatic metrics are more scalable but often biased. Building on prediction-powered inference (PPI), we propose prediction-powered evaluation, a framework that combines limited human judgments with large-scale automatic scores to obtain data-efficient system comparisons that are provably unbiased. We develop parametric and non-parametric procedures, analyze the efficiency trade-off between paired and unpaired designs, and validate the framework on six WMT datasets. We further introduce the Prediction-Powered Saving Ratio (PPSR), a meta-metric that measures how much human annotation an automatic metric can save when used within prediction-powered evaluation. PPSR directly targets metric utility for prediction-powered evaluation and yields more discriminative and stable metric rankings than existing system-level meta-metrics. Overall, our new paradigm reframes automatic metrics as tools for reducing human annotation cost rather than replacing human judgment, and applies broadly to non-verifiable tasks.

cs.CL

Which LLM for Which Work? Budgeted Model Allocation under Uncertain Evaluation

A company with a fixed artificial intelligence (AI) budget must decide which large language model (LLM) handles each recurring workload. What it lacks is the quality table, how well each model performs on each workload. Given that table, the decision is a multiple-choice knapsack problem and is routine to solve, so estimating it is the difficulty, and that estimation fails in two ways. Models are rarely compared on the same work, and the recorded score is usually a proxy rather than the outcome the company values. Causal and off-policy methods repair the first but condition on the second, while evaluator-validation methods estimate the second but stop short of the decision. Worse, buying more re-evaluation cannot settle the second: randomization governs which requests are scored, not how a score is produced, so the table stays uncertain however much evaluation is purchased. Yet the deployment decision may still be determined even when the table is not. We therefore ask whether one assignment stays optimal across every quality table consistent with the evidence. For the fixed-budget problem, this admits an exact two-solve certificate: solve once at the estimated table and once at a least-favourable table. Agreement certifies the assignment; disagreement identifies the model-workload pairs where further evidence can matter. We propose CASE (causal active sequential experimentation), which targets evaluation to those pairs and repeats the test as evidence accumulates. On a production log, the measurement failure is the larger of the two: correcting assignment exactly still leaves most of the loss, and randomized re-evaluation does not remove it. In our experiments, the available evidence often does not determine the assignment. On paid software tasks, better information about model quality yields more savings than further optimization of the assignment on the same estimates.

cs.LG

Neural ODE enhanced linear mixed effect models for estimating complex association patterns of time-varying covariates with the marker trajectory

Longitudinal cohort studies produce repeated data that enable the assessment of time-varying association patterns between exposures and health outcomes. Classical linear mixed-effects models (LMMs) can accommodate a large variety of association patterns while accounting for the irregularly spaced, partially observed measurement. But they require the analyst to pre-specify the functional form linking the exposure history to the outcome. We propose the Neural ODE-LMM, which embeds a Neural Ordinary Differential Equation (Neural ODE) within the linear mixed-effects framework: a learned vector field encodes covariate trajectories into a continuous-time latent state that drives both the fixed- and random-effect design, while preserving the standard LMM observation model. This retains classical likelihood-based inference while learning complex, potentially cumulative, covariate effects flexibly. All parameters are estimated by maximising a penalised marginal likelihood. To quantify covariate effects, we introduce contrasts of counterfactual predictions that compare the expected outcome under alternative covariate trajectories with variance estimated via the delta method. In simulations, the model recovers both instantaneous and cumulative-burden effects without prior specification of the functional form. Applied to the Trois-Cités (3C) cohort, a population-based study of 7{,}324 participants, the method reveals trajectory-dependent associations of BMI and fasting glucose with cognitive decline.

stat.ML

A Deep Latent Variable Framework for Jointly Modeling Missingness, Measurement Error, and Heterogeneity

Missing data, measurement error, and population heterogeneity are pervasive challenges in analyzing data arising from modern observational studies and machine learning applications. Although these problems frequently coexist and interact, they are often treated separately in existing works. We propose a unified probabilistic framework that jointly addresses these issues utilizing deep latent variable representation. The proposed method integrates a novel hierarchical tree-routed variational autoencoder with pattern-aware latent representations and calibration-based denoising. The framework accommodates missing data mechanisms, including MCAR, MAR, and MNAR, while simultaneously learning subgroup-specific and globally shared latent structure. The introduced reconvergent routing mechanism enables selective parameters to be shared across related subpopulations, which offers flexibility as well as improved statistical efficiency. Simulation studies demonstrate substantial improvements over existing deep generative imputation approaches under complex heterogeneous missingness and measurement-error settings. The proposed framework provides a principled approach for learning from noisy and incomplete data in modern healthcare and other high-dimensional applications.

stat.ML

Learning Representations through Token Prediction: Geometry, Approximation, and Downstream Guarantees

Token prediction is a central pre-training objective for modern language models. Despite its empirical success, why token prediction learns broadly useful representations remains incompletely understood. We develop a statistical framework connecting token prediction with representation geometry, encoder approximation, and downstream performance. Under a softmax prediction head, we show that accurate token prediction organizes token embeddings according to similarities between the distributions of contexts in which different token types appear, as measured by Hellinger distance, with explicit errors governed by prediction accuracy and token frequency. Meanwhile, the contextual representation provides a low-dimensional coordinate for the conditional distribution of the target token relative to these embeddings. We further introduce a self-consistency principle showing that repeated applications of a shared representation block can progressively refine the contextual representation without introducing additional block parameters. Among representations with the same prediction accuracy, this recurrent construction favors those that can be stably reconstructed from their contexts. Finally, we establish downstream guarantees for token generation, token community recovery, and classification by a linear probe, showing how prediction accuracy and recovered geometry translate into performance beyond the pre-training objective. Together, these results explain how the simple objective of predicting tokens can recover semantic geometry and produce broadly useful representations. A controlled simulation illustrates the theoretical mechanisms.

stat.ML

Deep graph kernel point processes over networks

Point process models are widely used for continuous-time discrete-event data, where each data point includes time and additional information called "marks," such as locations, nodes, or event types. We present a new point process model for discrete-event data over networks, built upon Hawkes' classic influence-kernel formulation to capture the effects of historical events on the occurrence of future events. The key idea is to represent the influence kernel using graph neural networks (GNNs), thereby capturing the underlying graph structure while using the strong representation power of GNNs. Compared with prior work that directly models the conditional intensity function using neural networks, our kernel representation captures repeated patterns of event influence more effectively by combining statistical and deep learning models, leading to more efficient model estimation and better predictive performance. Our work significantly extends existing deep spatio-temporal kernels for point process data, which are inapplicable to our setting because their observation spaces are Euclidean rather than graph structured. We present comprehensive experiments on synthetic and real-world data to demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed approach over state-of-the-art methods in predicting future events and uncovering graph structure from the data.

stat.ML

Understanding Deep Learning via Notions of Rank

Despite the extreme popularity of deep learning in science and industry, its formal understanding is limited. This thesis puts forth notions of rank as key for developing a theory of deep learning, focusing on the fundamental aspects of generalization and expressiveness. In particular, we establish that gradient-based training can induce an implicit regularization towards low rank for several neural network architectures, and demonstrate empirically that this phenomenon may facilitate an explanation of generalization over natural data (e.g., audio, images, and text). Then, we characterize the ability of graph neural networks to model interactions via a notion of rank, which is commonly used for quantifying entanglement in quantum physics. A central tool underlying these results is a connection between neural networks and tensor factorizations. Practical implications of our theory for designing explicit regularization schemes and data preprocessing algorithms are presented.

cs.LG

Integrating attention into explanation frameworks for language and vision transformers

The attention mechanism lies at the core of the transformer architecture, providing an interpretable model-internal signal that has motivated a growing interest in attention-based model explanations. Although attention weights do not directly determine model outputs, they reflect patterns of token influence that can inform and complement established explainability techniques. This work studies the potential of utilising the information encoded in attention weights to provide meaningful model explanations by integrating them into explainable AI (XAI) frameworks that target fundamentally different aspects of model behaviour. To this end, we develop two novel explanation methods applicable to both natural language processing and computer vision tasks. The first integrates attention weights into the Shapley value decomposition by redefining the characteristic function in terms of pairwise token interactions via attention weights, thus adapting this widely used game-theoretic solution concept to provide attention-driven attributions for local explanations. The second incorporates attention weights into token-level directional derivatives defined through concept activation vectors to measure concept sensitivity for global explanations. Our empirical evaluations on standard benchmarks and in a comparison study with widely used explanation methods show that attention weights can be meaningfully incorporated into the studied XAI frameworks, highlighting their value in enriching transformer explainability.

cs.LG

SHAKE-GNN: Scalable Hierarchical Kirchhoff-Forest Graph Neural Network

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have achieved remarkable success across a range of learning tasks. However, scaling GNNs to large graphs remains a significant challenge, especially for graph-level tasks. In this work, we introduce SHAKE-GNN, a novel scalable graph-level GNN framework based on a hierarchy of Kirchhoff Forests, a class of random spanning forests used to construct stochastic multi-resolution decompositions of graphs. SHAKE-GNN produces multi-scale representations, enabling flexible trade-offs between efficiency and performance. We introduce an improved, data-driven strategy for selecting the trade-off parameter and analyse the time-complexity of SHAKE-GNN. Experimental results on multiple large-scale graph classification benchmarks demonstrate that SHAKE-GNN achieves competitive performance while offering improved scalability.

cs.LG

Prediction-Powered Conditional Inference

We study prediction-powered conditional inference in the setting where labeled data are scarce, unlabeled covariates are abundant, and a black-box machine-learning predictor is available. The goal is to perform statistical inference on conditional functionals evaluated at a fixed target point, such as conditional means, without imposing a parametric model for the conditional relationship. Our approach combines localization with prediction-based variance reduction. First, we introduce an RKHS localization method that learns a data-adaptive weight from covariates and reformulates the target conditional moment at the target point as a weighted unconditional moment. Second, we incorporate machine-learning predictions through a correction-based decomposition of this localized moment, yielding a prediction-powered estimator and confidence interval that reduce variance when the predictor is informative while preserving validity regardless of predictor accuracy. We establish nonasymptotic error bounds and, in the abundant-unlabeled regime, minimax-optimal convergence rates for the resulting estimator, prove pointwise asymptotic normality with consistent variance estimation, and provide an explicit variance decomposition that characterizes how machine-learning predictions and unlabeled covariates improve statistical efficiency. Numerical experiments on simulated and real datasets demonstrate valid conditional coverage and substantially sharper confidence intervals than alternative methods.

stat.ML

The Value of Depth in Message Passing on Sparse Graphs: A Kesten-Stigum Dichotomy

How deep does a graph neural network need to be on a sparse graph? We study its purest statistical form: node classification on the sparse contextual stochastic block model (CSBM) with average degree $Δ=O(1)$, whose local weak limit is a broadcast-labelled Poisson Galton-Watson tree. Prior work derived a message-passing classifier $h_\ell$ that aggregates from each vertex at distance $k\le\ell$ the attenuated evidence $2\operatorname{artanh}(γ^k t(X_v))$, with $γ$ the edge signal and $t$ a bounded likelihood-ratio transform of the feature. We prove that the value of depth is governed by a single number, the Kesten-Stigum ratio $κ=γ^2Δ$. Below the threshold ($κ<1$), the error sequence is Cauchy at a geometric rate, $|\mathcal{E}(\ell)-\mathcal{E}(\ell')|\le Cκ^{(\ell+1)/3}$ for all $\ell'>\ell$, so all layers beyond depth $O(\log(1/ε))$ change the error by less than $ε$; conversely, under mild regularity each sufficiently deep layer still flips the decision with probability at least $cκ^{\ell/2}$, the empirically sharp exponent. Above the threshold ($κ>1$), depth is geometrically productive: $\mathcal{E}(\ell)$ is driven to a branching-process floor of order at most $1/(κ-1)$ at any geometric rate $κ^{-s\ell}$, $s<1$ (this bound has content only for $κ>17$). No local classifier of any depth beats the universal floor $e^{-Δ}Φ(-ζ)$ set by isolated roots ($ζ$ the feature signal-to-noise ratio), while the first layer provably helps by an explicit total-variation amount. Simulations with an exact belief-propagation baseline on the same trees show that the pairwise rule's error curve is mildly non-monotone in $\ell$, so an optimal finite depth exists (an exact instance is certified in the appendix), while BP saturates strictly faster, at an effective per-layer ratio below $κ$ that we identify.

math.ST

Jigsaw-CRL: Recovering Global Latent Causal Order from Fragmented Multi-Client Interventions

Causal representation learning (CRL) aims to recover latent causal variables and their structural relations from high-dimensional observations. Existing CRL methods typically assume that all environments are defined over the same latent variables, or at least share a common latent representation space. We study a fragmented multi-client setting, where multiple clients interact with the same global latent causal system but each client only accesses and intervenes on a subset of the latent variables. In this regime, marginalizing unused latent variables induces bidirected edges, so a single client no longer admits a node-wise latent causal graph, and the global latent causal order must be recovered by assembling client-specific structural fragments. We propose \textbf{Jigsaw-CRL}, a framework for recovering global latent causal order from such fragmented interventions. Under soft interventions, differences between precision matrices across environments exhibit a low-rank structure governed by latent ancestor relations. This enables recovery, for each client, of a block partition, the corresponding block-level ancestral order, and latent subspaces, and then assembly of these fragments into the global node-level latent causal order. We establish identifiability guarantees, develop practical algorithms, and validate the framework on synthetic data. Our codes are available on https://anonymous.4open.science/r/code-for-Jigsaw-CRL-7B26

stat.ML

Sharp Restricted Isometry Thresholds for Global Minima of Rank-Restricted Matrix LASSO

We determine the sharp restricted isometry threshold for recovery at global minima of the rank-restricted matrix LASSO. For target rank $r_{\star}$, if the rank-$k$ RIP constant satisfies $δ<δ_{\mathrm{sharp}}(k/r_{\star})$, where $δ_{\mathrm{sharp}}(t)=t/(4-t)$ for $0<t<4/3$ and $δ_{\mathrm{sharp}}(t)=\sqrt{(t-1)/t}$ for $t\ge4/3$, then every global minimizer has Frobenius error $\lesssim\sqrt{r_{\star}}λ$ for all $λ\gtrsim\|\mathcal{A}^{*}(ξ)\|_{\mathrm{op}}$ and at every search rank $r\ge r_{\star}$. The constants depend only on the RIP constant and $t=k/r_{\star}$, and in particular are independent of the search rank. When the rank restriction is inactive, the result specializes to the ordinary convex matrix LASSO. We also obtain the analogous results for sparsity-restricted vector LASSO. Conversely, we show that the threshold $δ<δ_{\mathrm{sharp}}(k/r_{\star})$ cannot be improved, due to the existence of counterexamples whose global minimizers fail to recover the ground truth.

stat.ML

Uniform Statistical Convergence of Empirical Sinkhorn Potentials with Exponential and Polynomial Dependence on the Regularization Parameter

We study the empirical Sinkhorn estimator of the entropic optimal transport potentials under the uniform loss. Since the potentials are only unique up to additive constants, we measure the error using the quotient supremum norm, defined as $d_\infty([u],[v]) = \inf_{a\in\mathbb{R}}\|u-v-a\|_\infty$. For a fixed regularization parameter $\varepsilon>0$, we establish a non-asymptotic statistical rate of $n^{-1/2}$. This is achieved by combining the Birkhoff-Hopf contraction theorem with entropy bounds on normalized kernel sections. However, the constant in this bound grows exponentially with $1/ε$. To improve this, we isolate geometric conditions under which the empirical estimator maintains the $n^{-1/2}$ rate but features polynomial dependence on $1/\varepsilon$. The key requirement is a polynomial residual-stability estimate for the population Sinkhorn map. We provide sufficient criteria for this, including a polynomial contraction property and a local inverse estimate. Furthermore, we introduce two rigorously verifiable model classes an $\varepsilon$-weak residual-interaction class obtained after separable centering and another based on connected tight-edge graphs for fixed discrete costs where the polynomial rate is guaranteed without relying on abstract resolvent assumptions. Finally, we establish matching minimax lower bounds demonstrating that the $\varepsilon n^{-1/2}$ rate cannot be uniformly improved in the bounded-interaction regime.

stat.ML

Signed random Fourier features for fast density estimation with indefinite kernels

Kernel density estimation (KDE) is one of the most fundamental statistical estimators of density functions. Its direct implementation on a dataset of $N$ points incurs an $\mathcal{O}(N^{2})$ computational cost, which is prohibitive for large-scale datasets. Kernel approximation techniques can be applied to bring the computational cost down to $\mathcal{O}(N)$. The random Fourier features (RFF) technique, based on sampling from the spectral density of the kernel function, has become popular to speed up kernel estimators for machine learning applications. Unfortunately, it is restricted to positive definite kernels, while the majority of kernel functions popular in KDE, such as the parabolic kernel, do not satisfy this property. To overcome this limitation, this article introduces the signed random Fourier features (SRFF) technique. It is a generalization of RFF compatible with indefinite kernels whose inverse Fourier transform is absolutely integrable. The motivation for introducing this method is to speed up KDE in the case of multivariate compact kernels, which are generally not positive definite. We detail how to implement SRFF for both product kernels and isotropic kernels. For the class of Kuttner-Golubov kernels $K(\boldsymbol{x}_{i},\boldsymbol{x}_{j})=(1-\left\Vert \boldsymbol{x}_{i}-\boldsymbol{x}_{j}\right\Vert ^α)^β\mathbf{1}_{\{\left\Vert \boldsymbol{x}_{i}-\boldsymbol{x}_{j}\right\Vert \leq1\}}$ where $\boldsymbol{x}_{i}\in\mathbb{R}^{d}$, $\boldsymbol{x}_{j}\in\mathbb{R}^{d}$, $α>0$, $β>0$, which includes the triangular, parabolic, biweight, triweight, and other kernel functions of interest for KDE as particular examples, we provide an explicit acceptance-rejection algorithm to sample from its signed spectral density. Our numerical tests on a dataset of one million points confirm the computational efficiency and accuracy of SRFF for large-scale KDE.

stat.CO

Content Exploration Beyond the Feed: Creator Supply and the Shared Corpus

Industrial recommenders give new content initial views through budgeted exploration, then use early performance to decide further delivery. On many short-video platforms, exploration is the primary way new videos reach viewers. Viewer-side tests measure consumption; the published budget objectives we review omit creator response. We analyze four experiments on a major short-video platform. An eight-month creator ablation finds production exploration raises videos posted per creator by 8.55% and creators posting at least once by 7.10% relative to a minimal floor. A budget-matched reallocation raises creator participation with no detectable short-run viewer-side change. A year-long viewer ablation finds 1.74% more video views but 2.13% less view time. A delivered view creates immediate feed value, can trigger organic take-up, and can induce creator supply. Take-up and supply replenish a shared corpus, creating two measurement limits. Viewer-side A/B tests cancel the corpus effect when both arms consume the same corpus. Giving each arm its own corpus avoids cancellation, but turnover still controls the horizon. If the corpus turns over at rate w per posting cycle, a t-cycle experiment expresses at most wt of the eventual corpus effect. More users reduce noise but do not speed turnover. Before the corpus path visibly bends, data cannot distinguish a modest fast effect from an arbitrarily large slow one, so a valid confidence interval may lack a finite upper endpoint. As predicted, the three-week co-diverted experiment cannot determine the sign of the eventual corpus effect. Within the window, it identifies the direct feed effect, and an exploratory cohort analysis detects organic lift after exploration ends. The experiments establish a positive creator response, measure the gross corpus flow visible within three weeks, and show the design and duration needed to identify total value.

cs.IR
Compare source metadata on this page
WorkPublishedSource identifierSource
Simultaneous Monitoring of Shape and Surface Color via 4D Point Clouds: A Registration-free Approach2026-08-302605.08753arxiv
Cultural Bias Without a Cultural Self:A Disassociation Study of LLM's Persona and Bias2026-08-302607.02368arxiv
Which Metrics Save the Most Human Annotation? Prediction-Powered Evaluation and Meta-Evaluation2026-08-302608.26638arxiv
Which LLM for Which Work? Budgeted Model Allocation under Uncertain Evaluation2026-08-302608.29560arxiv
Neural ODE enhanced linear mixed effect models for estimating complex association patterns of time-varying covariates with the marker trajectory2026-08-302608.29714arxiv
A Deep Latent Variable Framework for Jointly Modeling Missingness, Measurement Error, and Heterogeneity2026-08-302608.30040arxiv
Learning Representations through Token Prediction: Geometry, Approximation, and Downstream Guarantees2026-08-302608.30072arxiv
Deep graph kernel point processes over networks2026-08-292306.11313arxiv
Understanding Deep Learning via Notions of Rank2026-08-292408.02111arxiv
Integrating attention into explanation frameworks for language and vision transformers2026-08-292508.08966arxiv
SHAKE-GNN: Scalable Hierarchical Kirchhoff-Forest Graph Neural Network2026-08-292509.22100arxiv
Prediction-Powered Conditional Inference2026-08-292603.05575arxiv
The Value of Depth in Message Passing on Sparse Graphs: A Kesten-Stigum Dichotomy2026-08-292607.16676arxiv
Jigsaw-CRL: Recovering Global Latent Causal Order from Fragmented Multi-Client Interventions2026-08-292608.28991arxiv
Sharp Restricted Isometry Thresholds for Global Minima of Rank-Restricted Matrix LASSO2026-08-292608.29018arxiv
Uniform Statistical Convergence of Empirical Sinkhorn Potentials with Exponential and Polynomial Dependence on the Regularization Parameter2026-08-292608.29152arxiv
Signed random Fourier features for fast density estimation with indefinite kernels2026-08-292608.29265arxiv
Content Exploration Beyond the Feed: Creator Supply and the Shared Corpus2026-08-292608.29430arxiv

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