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arXiv2012

A Semi-Markov Modulated Interest Rate Model

In this paper we propose a semi-Markov modulated model of interest rates. We assume that the switching process is a semi-Markov process with finite state space E and the modulated process is a diffusive process. We derive recursive equations for the higher order moments of the discount factor and we describe a Monte Carlo al- gorithm to execute simulations. The results are specialized to classical models as those by Vasicek, Hull and White and CIR with a semi-Markov modulation.

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arXiv2012

Funding, Collateral and Hedging: uncovering the mechanics and the subtleties of funding valuation adjustments

The main result of this paper is a collateralized counterparty valuation adjusted pricing equation, which allows to price a deal while taking into account credit and debit valuation adjustments (CVA, DVA) along with margining and funding costs, all in a consistent way. Funding risk breaks the bilateral nature of the valuation formula. We find that the equation has a recursive form, making the introduction of a purely additive funding valuation adjustment (FVA) difficult. Yet, we can cast the pricing equation into a set of iterative relationships which can be solved by means of standard least-square Monte Carlo techniques. As a consequence, we find that identifying funding costs and debit valuation adjustments is not tenable in general, contrary to what has been suggested in the literature in simple cases. The assumptions under which funding costs vanish are a very special case of the more general theory. We define a comprehensive framework that allows us to derive earlier results on funding or counterparty risk as a special case, although our framework is more than the sum of such special cases. We derive the general pricing equation by resorting to a risk-neutral approach where the new types of risks are included by modifying the payout cash flows. We consider realistic settings and include in our models the common market practices suggested by ISDA documentation, without assuming restrictive constraints on margining procedures and close-out netting rules. In particular, we allow for asymmetric collateral and funding rates, and exogenous liquidity policies and hedging strategies. Re-hypothecation liquidity risk and close-out amount evaluation issues are also covered. Finally, relevant examples of non-trivial settings illustrate how to derive known facts about discounting curves from a robust general framework and without resorting to ad hoc hypotheses.

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arXiv2012

Counterparty Risk and Funding: The Four Wings of the TVA

The credit crisis and the ongoing European sovereign debt crisis have highlighted the native form of credit risk, namely the counterparty risk. The related Credit Valuation Adjustment, (CVA), Debt Valuation Adjustment (DVA), Liquidity Valuation Adjustment (LVA) and Replacement Cost (RC) issues, jointly referred to in this paper as Total Valuation Adjustment (TVA), have been thoroughly investigated in the theoretical papers [Cr12a] and [Cr12b]. The present work provides an executive summary and numerical companion to these papers, through which the TVA pricing problem can be reduced to Markovian pre-default TVA BSDEs. The first step consists in the counterparty clean valuation of a portfolio of contracts, which is the valuation in a hypothetical situation where the two parties would be risk-free and funded at a risk-free rate. In the second step, the TVA is obtained as the value of an option on the counterparty clean value process called Contingent Credit Default Swap (CCDS). Numerical results are presented for interest rate swaps in the Vasicek, as well as in the inverse Gaussian Hull-White short rate model, also allowing one to assess the related model risk issue.

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arXiv2012

Ethics and Finance: the role of mathematics

This paper presents the contemporary Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing as being equivalent to approaches to pricing that emerged before 1700 in the context of Virtue Ethics. This is done by considering the history of science and mathematics in the thirteenth and seventeenth century. An explanation as to why these approaches to pricing were forgotten between 1700 and 2000 is given, along with some of the implications on economics of viewing the Fundamental Theorem as a product of Virtue Ethics. The Fundamental Theorem was developed in mathematics to establish a `theory' that underpinned the Black-Scholes-Merton approach to pricing derivatives. In doing this, the Fundamental Theorem unified a number of different approaches in financial economics, this strengthened the status of neo-classical economics based on Consequentialist Ethics. We present an alternative to this narrative.

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arXiv2015

Valuation of asset and volatility derivatives using decoupled time-changed Lévy processes

In this paper we propose a general derivative pricing framework which employs decoupled time-changed (DTC) Lévy processes to model the underlying asset of contingent claims. A DTC Lévy process is a generalized time-changed Lévy process whose continuous and pure jump parts are allowed to follow separate random time scalings; we devise the martingale structure for a DTC Lévy-driven asset and revisit many popular models which fall under this framework. Postulating different time changes for the underlying Lévy decomposition allows to introduce asset price models consistent with the assumption of a correlated pair of continuous and jump market activities; we study one illustrative DTC model having this property by assuming that the instantaneous activity rates follow the the so-called Wishart process. The theory developed is applied to the problem of pricing claims depending not only on the price or the volatility of an underlying asset, but also to more sophisticated derivatives that pay-off on the joint performance of these two financial variables, like the target volatility option (TVO). We solve the pricing problem through a Fourier-inversion method; numerical computations validating our technique are provided.

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arXiv2012

Singular Forward-Backward Stochastic Differential Equations and Emissions Derivatives

We introduce two simple models of forward-backward stochastic differential equations with a singular terminal condition and we explain how and why they appear naturally as models for the valuation of CO2 emission allowances. Single phase cap-and-trade schemes lead readily to terminal conditions given by indicator functions of the forward component, and using fine partial differential equations estimates, we show that the existence theory of these equations, as well as the properties of the candidates for solution, depend strongly upon the characteristics of the forward dynamics. Finally, we give a first order Taylor expansion and show how to numerically calibrate some of these models for the purpose of CO2 option pricing.

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arXiv2012

The Zeeman Effect in Finance: Libor Spectroscopy and Basis Risk Management

Once upon a time there was a classical financial world in which all the Libors were equal. Standard textbooks taught that simple relations held, such that, for example, a 6 months Libor Deposit was replicable with a 3 months Libor Deposits plus a 3x6 months Forward Rate Agreement (FRA), and that Libor was a good proxy of the risk free rate required as basic building block of no-arbitrage pricing theory. Nowadays, in the modern financial world after the credit crunch, some Libors are more equal than others, depending on their rate tenor, and classical formulas are history. Banks are not anymore too "big to fail", Libors are fixed by panels of risky banks, and they are risky rates themselves. These simple empirical facts carry very important consequences in derivative's trading and risk management, such as, for example, basis risk, collateralization and regulatory pressure in favour of Central Counterparties. Something that should be carefully considered by anyone managing even a single plain vanilla Swap. In this qualitative note we review the problem trying to shed some light on this modern animal farm, recurring to an analogy with quantum physics, the Zeeman effect.

q-fin.PR↗

arXiv2012

Large Financial Markets and Asymptotic Arbitrage with Small Transaction Costs

We give characterizations of asymptotic arbitrage of the first and second kind and of strong asymptotic arbitrage for large financial markets with small proportional transaction costs $\la_n$ on market $n$ in terms of contiguity properties of sequences of equivalent probability measures induced by $\la_n$--consistent price systems. These results are analogous to the frictionless case. Our setting is simple, each market $n$ contains two assets with continuous price processes. The proofs use quantitative versions of the Halmos--Savage Theorem and a monotone convergence result of nonnegative local martingales. Moreover, we present an example admitting a strong asymptotic arbitrage without transaction costs; but with transaction costs $\la_n>0$ on market $n$ ($\la_n\to0$ not too fast) there does not exist any form of asymptotic arbitrage.

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arXiv2013

Heat Kernel Framework for Asset Pricing in Finite Time

A heat kernel approach is proposed for the development of a general, flexible, and mathematically tractable asset pricing framework in finite time. The pricing kernel, giving rise to the price system in an incomplete market, is modelled by weighted heat kernels which are driven by multivariate Markov processes and which provide enough degrees of freedom in order to calibrate to relevant data, e.g. to the term structure of bond prices. It is shown how, for a class of models, the prices of bonds, caplets, and swaptions can be computed in closed form. The dynamical equations for the price processes are derived, and explicit formulae are obtained for the short rate of interest, the risk premium, and for the stochastic volatility of prices. Several of the closed-form asset price models presented in this paper are driven by combinations of Markovian jump processes with different probability laws. Such models provide a rich basis for consistent applications in several sectors of a financial market including equity, fixed-income, commodities, and insurance. The flexible, multidimensional and multivariate structure, on which the asset price models are constructed, lends itself well to the transparent modelling of dependence across asset classes. As an illustration, the impact on prices by spiralling debt, a typical feature of a financial crisis, is modelled explicitly, and contagion effects are readily observed in the dynamics of asset returns.

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arXiv2012

Funded Bilateral Valuation Adjustment

We show how the cost of funding the collateral in a particular set up can be equal to the Bilateral Valuation Adjustment with the "funded" probability of default, leading to the definition of a Funded Bilateral Valuation Adjustment (FBVA). That set up can also be viewed by an investor as an effective way to restructure the counterparty risk arising from an uncollateralized transaction with a counterparty, mitigating or even avoiding entirely the additional capital charge introduced by the new Basel III framework.

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arXiv2012

European Option Pricing with Transaction Costs and Stochastic Volatility: an Asymptotic Analysis

In this paper the valuation problem of a European call option in presence of both stochastic volatility and transaction costs is considered. In the limit of small transaction costs and fast mean reversion, an asymptotic expression for the option price is obtained. While the dominant term in the expansion it is shown to be the classical Black and Scholes solution, the correction terms appear at $O(\varepsilon^{1/2})$ and $O(\varepsilon)$. The optimal hedging strategy is then explicitly obtained for the Scott's model.

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arXiv2012

Can there be an explicit formula for implied volatility?

It is "well known" that there is no explicit expression for the Black-Scholes implied volatility. We prove that, as a function of underlying, strike, and call price, implied volatility does not belong to the class of D-finite functions. This does not rule out all explicit expressions, but shows that implied volatility does not belong to a certain large class, which contains many elementary functions and classical special functions.

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arXiv2012

Optimal hedging in discrete time

Building on the work of Schweizer (1995) and Cern and Kallseny (2007), we present discrete time formulas minimizing the mean square hedging error for multidimensional assets. In particular, we give explicit formulas when a regime-switching random walk or a GARCH-type process is utilized to model the returns. Monte Carlo simulations are used to compare the optimal and delta hedging methods.

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arXiv2012

CDS pricing under Basel III: capital relief and default protection

Basel III introduces new capital charges for CVA. These charges, and the Basel 2.5 default capital charge can be mitigated by CDS. Therefore, to price in the capital relief that CDS contracts provide, we introduce a CDS pricing model with three legs: premium; default protection; and capital relief. If markets are complete, with no CDS bond basis, then CDSs can be replicated by taking short positions in risky floating bonds issued by the reference entity and a riskless bank account. If these conditions do not hold, then it is theoretically possible that the capital relief that CDSs provide may be priced in. Thus our model provides bounds on the CDS-implied hazard rates when markets are incomplete. Under simple assumptions we show that 20% to over 50% of observed CDS spread could be due to priced in capital relief. Given that this is different for IMM and non-IMM banks will we see differential pricing?

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arXiv2012

Application of simplest random walk algorithms for pricing barrier options

We demonstrate effectiveness of the first-order algorithm from [Milstein, Tretyakov. Theory Prob. Appl. 47 (2002), 53-68] in application to barrier option pricing. The algorithm uses the weak Euler approximation far from barriers and a special construction motivated by linear interpolation of the price near barriers. It is easy to implement and is universal: it can be applied to various structures of the contracts including derivatives on multi-asset correlated underlyings and can deal with various type of barriers. In contrast to the Brownian bridge techniques currently commonly used for pricing barrier options, the algorithm tested here does not require knowledge of trigger probabilities nor their estimates. We illustrate this algorithm via pricing a barrier caplet, barrier trigger swap and barrier swaption.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2012

An FBSDE Approach to American Option Pricing with an Interacting Particle Method

In the paper, we propose a new calculation scheme for American options in the framework of a forward backward stochastic differential equation (FBSDE). The well-known decomposition of an American option price with that of a European option of the same maturity and the remaining early exercise premium can be cast into the form of a decoupled non-linear FBSDE. We numerically solve the FBSDE by applying an interacting particle method recently proposed by Fujii and Takahashi (2012d), which allows one to perform a Monte Carlo simulation in a fully forward-looking manner. We perform the fourth-order analysis for the Black-Scholes (BS) model and the third-order analysis for the Heston model. The comparison to those obtained from existing tree algorithms shows the effectiveness of the particle method.

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arXiv2012

The Pricing Mechanism of Contingent Claims and its Generating Function

In this paper we study dynamic pricing mechanism of contingent claims. A typical model of such pricing mechanism is the so-called g-expectation $E^g_{s,t}[X]$ defined by the solution of the backward stochastic differential equation with generator g and with the contingent claim X as terminal condition. The generating function g this BSDE. We also provide examples of determining the price generating function $g=g(y,z)$ by testing. The main result of this paper is as follows: if a given dynamic pricing mechanism is $E^{g_μ}$-dominated, i.e., the criteria (A5) $E_{s,t}[X]-E_{s,t}[X']\leq E^{g_μ}_{s,t}[X-X']$ is satisfied for a large enough $μ> 0$, where $g_μ=g_μ(|y|+|z|)$, then $E_{s,t}$ is a g-pricing mechanism. This domination condition was statistically tested using CME data documents. The result of test is significantly positive.

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arXiv2014

Second-order BSDEs with general reflection and game options under uncertainty

The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we extend the results of [33] concerning the existence and uniqueness of second-order reflected 2BSDEs to the case of two obstacles. Under some regularity assumptions on one of the barriers, similar to the ones in [10], and when the two barriers are completely separated, we provide a complete wellposedness theory for doubly reflected second-order BSDEs. We also show that these objects are related to non-standard optimal stopping games, thus generalizing the connection between DRBSDEs and Dynkin games first proved by Cvitanic and Karatzas [11]. More precisely, we show under a technical assumption that the second order DRBSDEs provide solutions of what we call uncertain Dynkin games and that they also allow us to obtain super and subhedging prices for American game options (also called Israeli options) in financial markets with volatility uncertainty

math.PR↗