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arXiv2026

3D Uncertainty Quantification for Photoacoustic Tomography

Photoacoustic tomography (PAT) is a promising modality for high-resolution biomedical imaging, motivating the need for reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) of reconstructed images. Bayesian approaches provide a rigorous framework for UQ but remain computationally challenging for realistic three-dimensional PAT and are sensitive to numerical approximations in the governing wave equation. We develop a finite-element Bayesian UQ framework for PAT that accommodates complex computational domains and detector geometries while enabling large-scale three-dimensional inference. The proposed methodology reformulates the randomize-then-optimize (RTO) sampling strategy as a matrix-free algorithm that generates independent posterior samples using only forward and adjoint wave propagations. Particular attention is given to constructing an adjoint discretization that forms an exact transpose pair with the discrete forward operator while remaining consistent with the continuous PAT adjoint, enabling efficient least-squares solvers within the sampling procedure. We investigate the influence of temporal discretization, artificial boundary conditions, and adjoint consistency on posterior uncertainty and identify discretization strategies that avoid numerical artifacts. The framework is validated against exact posterior statistics, existing Bayesian PAT methods, and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo using the No-U-Turn Sampler (NUTS), and is demonstrated on a three-dimensional problem with approximately $2\times 10^5$ unknowns on a general finite-element domain. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first large-scale Bayesian PAT study on general three-dimensional finite-element geometries, and the methodology extends naturally to a broad class of linear PDE-constrained inverse problems.

math.NA↗

arXiv2026

Generalized Regret Analysis of Thompson Sampling using Fractional Posteriors

Thompson sampling (TS) is one of the most popular and earliest algorithms to solve stochastic multi-armed bandit problems. We consider a variant of TS, named $α$-TS, where we use a fractional or $α$-posterior ($α\in(0,1)$) instead of the standard posterior distribution. To compute an $α$-posterior, the likelihood in the definition of the standard posterior is tempered with a factor $α$. For $α$-TS we obtain both instance-dependent $\mathcal{O}\left(\sum_{k \neq i^*} Δ_k\left(\frac{\log(T)}{C(α)Δ_k^2} + \frac{1}{2} \right)\right)$ and instance-independent $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{KT\log K})$ frequentist regret bounds under very mild conditions on the prior and reward distributions, where $Δ_k$ is the gap between the true mean rewards of the $k^{th}$ and the best arms, and $C(α)$ is a known constant. Both the sub-Gaussian and exponential family models satisfy our general conditions on the reward distribution. Our conditions on the prior distribution can be easily satisfied by a density that is positive, continuous, and bounded. We also establish another instance-dependent regret upper bound that matches (up to constants) to that of improved UCB [Auer and Ortner, 2010]. Our regret analysis carefully adapts and combines recent theoretical developments in the non-asymptotic concentration analysis and Bernstein-von Mises type results for the $α$-posterior distribution. Moreover, our analysis does not require additional structural properties such as closed-form posteriors or conjugate priors.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Statistical Inference for Privatized Data with Unknown Sample Size

We develop both theory and algorithms to analyze privatized data in unbounded differential privacy (DP), where even the sample size is considered a sensitive quantity that requires privacy protection. We show that the distance between the sampling distributions under unbounded DP and bounded DP goes to zero as the sample size $n$ goes to infinity, provided that the noise used to privatize $n$ is at an appropriate rate; we also establish that Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC)-type posterior distributions converge under similar assumptions. We further give asymptotic results in regimes where the privacy budgets vary, establishing similarity of sampling distributions as well as showing that the MLE in the unbounded setting converges to the bounded-DP MLE. To facilitate valid, finite-sample Bayesian inference on privatized data under unbounded DP, we propose a reversible jump MCMC algorithm which extends the data augmentation MCMC of Ju et al. (2022). We also propose a Monte Carlo EM algorithm to compute the MLE from privatized data in both bounded and unbounded DP. We apply our methodology to analyze a linear regression model as well as a 2019 American Time Use Survey Microdata File which we model using a Dirichlet distribution.

math.ST↗

arXiv2026

Online simultaneous inference for quantiles via smoothed stochastic gradient descent

This paper considers the estimation of quantiles via a smoothed version of the stochastic gradient descent (SGD) algorithm. By smoothing the score function with a bandwidth tied to the learning rate, we obtain estimates that are monotone in the quantile level at every iteration, while retaining the memory and computational efficiency required for streaming data. We establish non-asymptotic tail probability bounds for the smoothed estimate with and without Polyak-Ruppert averaging, which are sub-exponential with a multi-regime structure. For the averaged estimate we further derive a Bahadur representation that is uniform in the quantile level and across coordinates, and a resulting Gaussian approximation by the maximum of Brownian bridges, with the dimension $p$ allowed to grow exponentially in the sample size. This yields simultaneous inference across coordinates and quantile levels. As an alternative that avoids estimating the sparsity function, we propose an online multiplier bootstrap that preserves monotonicity, runs in a single pass and is asymptotically valid. Extending the theory to a localized recursion, we obtain online nonparametric conditional quantile estimates with uniform bands over design points and quantile levels. Simulations confirm accurate finite-sample coverage, and we illustrate the method on conditional value-at-risk curves.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Probabilistic Symbolic Regression for Equation Discovery via Operator-induced and Regularized Symbolic Forests

Symbolic regression has emerged as a powerful tool for artificial intelligence-driven scientific discovery by learning interpretable analytical expressions that reveal governing relationships directly from data. Existing methods, however, often rely on heuristic search, struggle to balance predictive accuracy with expression complexity in noisy settings, and offer limited characterization of symbolic uncertainty. Probabilistic approaches that address these challenges in a unified manner remain underexplored. We introduce a probabilistic symbolic regression framework that represents mathematical expressions as ensembles of symbolic trees. A regularizing prior over tree topology controls expression complexity, while an Occam's window-based posterior summary captures uncertainty across multiple plausible symbolic models. Given the limited existing theoretical treatment of symbolic regression, we develop posterior concentration guarantees when symbolic expressions approximate the underlying relationship arbitrarily well, with a near-parametric rate when an exact finite formula exists. Additionally, we establish a sharp oracle concentration result under symbolic misspecification. Comparisons of our proposed framework with state-of-the-art competitors demonstrate superior predictive accuracy, optimal symbolic complexity, and stable structural recovery when learning benchmark scientific equations, together with the identification of scientifically interpretable descriptor formulas in a challenging materials discovery application.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Learning Representations through Token Prediction: Geometry, Approximation, and Downstream Guarantees

Token prediction is a central pre-training objective for modern language models. Despite its empirical success, why token prediction learns broadly useful representations remains incompletely understood. We develop a statistical framework connecting token prediction with representation geometry, encoder approximation, and downstream performance. Under a softmax prediction head, we show that accurate token prediction organizes token embeddings according to similarities between the distributions of contexts in which different token types appear, as measured by Hellinger distance, with explicit errors governed by prediction accuracy and token frequency. Meanwhile, the contextual representation provides a low-dimensional coordinate for the conditional distribution of the target token relative to these embeddings. We further introduce a self-consistency principle showing that repeated applications of a shared representation block can progressively refine the contextual representation without introducing additional block parameters. Among representations with the same prediction accuracy, this recurrent construction favors those that can be stably reconstructed from their contexts. Finally, we establish downstream guarantees for token generation, token community recovery, and classification by a linear probe, showing how prediction accuracy and recovered geometry translate into performance beyond the pre-training objective. Together, these results explain how the simple objective of predicting tokens can recover semantic geometry and produce broadly useful representations. A controlled simulation illustrates the theoretical mechanisms.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Bounds on the Posterior-to-Prior Ratios for Inclusion Belief under Bounded Differential Privacy

Differential privacy has become the standard for generating privacy-protected data releases. However, differential privacy does not translate intuitively to disclosure risk. In particular, it remains unclear how much an adversary's belief about an individual's inclusion in a dataset can change after observing a protected release. To address this question, we derive upper and lower bounds on the posterior-to-prior ratios of inclusion beliefs under bounded probabilistic and approximate differential privacy. By assuming a worst-case adversary with all-but-one auxiliary information, i.e., knowledge of all except for one of the participants in a dataset, we obtain bounds that apply to any adversary. Because these bounds may fail with non-zero probability, we study the corresponding failure probability for the Gaussian mechanism. We derive a theoretical upper limit on this probability and compare it with Monte Carlo estimates across a wide range of parameter settings. The observed failure rate is several orders of magnitude smaller than its theoretical upper limit, indicating that the latter is highly conservative. These findings suggest that the inferential privacy guarantees provided by differentially private mechanisms may be substantially stronger in practice than what is implied by the theoretical upper limit.

math.ST↗

arXiv2026

Should I Use This Synthetic Dataset for Training? How to Test with Minimal Real Data

Digital twins (DTs) and learned world models are increasingly used to generate synthetic data that augment the scarce real datasets available for training artificial intelligence (AI) models in engineering systems. Owing to the inevitable simulation-to-reality (sim-to-real) gap, however, augmentation may fail to improve the performance of the trained model on the real data distribution. This paper addresses the resulting decision problem: Given a real dataset, a candidate synthetic dataset, and a fixed learning algorithm, decide whether training on the augmented dataset improves the true, population-level performance, while consuming as few real test data points as possible. Two formulations are considered: a direct test on the mean loss difference between the two trained models, and a symmetry-based test on the paired loss difference, which trades a stronger null assumption for faster evidence accumulation. For the latter, we introduce the {adaptive e-process sign-flip test} (aeSFT), a doubly adaptive procedure that adapts both the number of Monte Carlo sign-flip rounds, and hence the computational cost, and the amount of real test data consumed. aeSFT yields anytime-valid Type-I error control, with no need to pre-specify the test-set size. Experiments on a synthetic-data classification task, a DT-aided wireless packet-scheduling task, and a radio-map prediction task show that aeSFT identifies useful synthetic data using substantially fewer real test samples than mean-based sequential testing, matches the power of fixed-sample sign-flip testing and the paired $t$-test, while keeping the false-positive rate below the target level.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Towards a Statistical Understanding of Mixture-of-Experts

Mixture-of-experts (MoE) architectures increase model capacity by combining a collection of expert predictors through input-dependent routing, while often activating only a small subset of experts for each input. Despite their growing importance in modern large-scale models, the statistical roles of their design choices, especially routing, sparse activation, and shared experts, remain only partially understood, as existing theory has largely focused on parametric or correctly specified MoE models. In this paper, we view MoE as a form of localized aggregation and show how this localization reshapes the approximation-estimation-computation tradeoff. We derive oracle risk bounds for learning dense and sparse routing with evolving experts, separating approximation, expert-learning, and router-estimation errors, and characterize how sparse Top-K routing can retain the benefits of localized aggregation while controlling per-input computation. We also interpret gating through the geometry of input space, relating routing performance to regions of local expert advantage, and show how shared experts, as adopted in architectures such as DeepSeekMoE, can extract common predictive structure so that routed experts focus on residual local variation. Together, these results provide a unified statistical framework for understanding MoE through input-dependent expert aggregation, in which expert specialization and computational tradeoffs are governed by local predictive structure.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

The information geometry of product-reference discrete diffusion: Interaction growth complexity and optimal scheduling

We study a class of product-reference diffusion algorithms for sampling from a discrete distribution. We show that their sampling performance can be characterized using a path-based measure of data geometry that we call the interaction growth complexity (IGC). We show that a bivariate IGC kernel gives an exact representation of both the KL discretization error and a simple one-step upper bound. The simpler univariate IGC density can be used to study the effect of stepsize choices on the iteration complexity required to obtain $ε$-accurate samples in KL divergence. Samplers that traverse the path with equi-spaced steps in log-squared-reliability-odds have performance that depends on the aggregate IGC mass, whereas refined choices of stepsizes have a lower complexity depending on a square-root functional. In the fine-grid limit, both of these characterizations become sharp. We also allow general product reference distributions and show that the reference law can substantially reshape the IGC profile and the resulting sampling complexity; in particular, references far from both the uniform and the data marginals can yield dimension-dependent improvements. Finally, the aggregate IGC mass admits bounds in terms of total correlation and dual total correlation, thereby connecting the pathwise geometry to classical measures of multivariate dependence.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Diagonal Attenuation: A Finite-Sample Correction for PCA

Principal component analysis (PCA) can rotate away from its population target when a covariance matrix is estimated from limited data. We introduce diagonal attenuation, which preserves sample cross-covariances while reducing coordinatewise sample variances. The method is revealed exactly by averaging a linear full-output reconstruction loss over random input masks; studying the correction directly extends it beyond the range attainable by masking. We isolate the part of the random coupling between retained and omitted population directions that is contributed by sample-variance errors, and show how attenuation can reduce the resulting rotation. Under balanced marginal variances, we derive an explicit expected-risk theorem, uniform over the attenuation path for all sufficiently large finite samples, and obtain the asymptotically risk-minimizing strength. For general covariances, we characterize when attenuation leaves the population PCA subspace unchanged and give a risk theorem that also accounts for changing eigengaps and the population cost when the target moves. Simulations track this tradeoff from exact preservation back to PCA. Across local image patches, speech spectra, and smartphone acceleration, both mask-derived and direct attenuation improve PCA under two fitting-sample budgets, and one of them has the largest mean gain among seven methods in every data--budget cell. The full path selects strengths beyond the mask-derived boundary on $63\%$--$95\%$ of the subsamples.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Ideal Observer for Segmentation of Dead Leaves Images

The visible parts of a scene are determined by occlusion among overlapping surfaces. Here we consider "dead leaves" models, which replicate this by independently sampling objects ("leaves") with position, shape, color, and texture and layering them until the image is covered. Building on prior theory, we present a self-contained framework that rigorously defines the dead leaves model and derives an analytical Bayesian ideal observer for partitioning finite pixel sets. The longest part of the paper spans the derivation of the prior probability, which elevates the observer beyond pixel-similarity methods by incorporating geometric information. These computations are practical only for small pixel sets (up to 9-10 pixels). We emphasize accessibility through step-by-step derivations, extensive visualizations, and examples. We empirically evaluate three tractable observers (prior-only, likelihood-only, and the full ideal observer), plus a random baseline on 108 dead leaves image datasets varying in texture intensity, leaf size, and image size. Likelihood-only performance falls with increasing texture intensity and image size. Prior-only performance falls with decreasing leaf size and increasing maximal image dimension. All model-based observers strongly outperform the random baseline, and the ideal observer consistently outperforms the others by combining both information sources. The model provides a principled upper bound on segmentation performance for limited pixel sets, enabling comparisons with human observers and algorithms.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

The Value of Depth in Message Passing on Sparse Graphs: A Kesten-Stigum Dichotomy

How deep does a graph neural network need to be on a sparse graph? We study its purest statistical form: node classification on the sparse contextual stochastic block model (CSBM) with average degree $Δ=O(1)$, whose local weak limit is a broadcast-labelled Poisson Galton-Watson tree. Prior work derived a message-passing classifier $h_\ell$ that aggregates from each vertex at distance $k\le\ell$ the attenuated evidence $2\operatorname{artanh}(γ^k t(X_v))$, with $γ$ the edge signal and $t$ a bounded likelihood-ratio transform of the feature. We prove that the value of depth is governed by a single number, the Kesten-Stigum ratio $κ=γ^2Δ$. Below the threshold ($κ<1$), the error sequence is Cauchy at a geometric rate, $|\mathcal{E}(\ell)-\mathcal{E}(\ell')|\le Cκ^{(\ell+1)/3}$ for all $\ell'>\ell$, so all layers beyond depth $O(\log(1/ε))$ change the error by less than $ε$; conversely, under mild regularity each sufficiently deep layer still flips the decision with probability at least $cκ^{\ell/2}$, the empirically sharp exponent. Above the threshold ($κ>1$), depth is geometrically productive: $\mathcal{E}(\ell)$ is driven to a branching-process floor of order at most $1/(κ-1)$ at any geometric rate $κ^{-s\ell}$, $s<1$ (this bound has content only for $κ>17$). No local classifier of any depth beats the universal floor $e^{-Δ}Φ(-ζ)$ set by isolated roots ($ζ$ the feature signal-to-noise ratio), while the first layer provably helps by an explicit total-variation amount. Simulations with an exact belief-propagation baseline on the same trees show that the pairwise rule's error curve is mildly non-monotone in $\ell$, so an optimal finite depth exists (an exact instance is certified in the appendix), while BP saturates strictly faster, at an effective per-layer ratio below $κ$ that we identify.

math.ST↗

arXiv2026

Compact and Infinite-Order Error Analysis for Null-Space SVD Estimation

We study null-space estimation from a noisy matrix. For a simple left null space, we first derive an exact compact expression for the error of the smallest left singular vector. We then give an all-order series for the SVD vector and projector, followed by compact and consistently truncated series forms for the fixed-realization empirical risk and conditional population generalization risk. The recursion extends to a multiple-dimensional null space by following the complete invariant subspace. The convergence radius is not inferred from an error plot: it is computed independently from the nearest complex exceptional point that joins a retained eigenvalue branch to its complement. A reduced-nullity experiment shows that moving this spectral boundary can increase the radius, although the improvement is not monotone in the retained nullity. For individually ordered null directions under Gaussian training with $τ\geq m$, we prove that the Wishart splitting matrix $W$ gives a strict second-order empirical ranking. Gaussian averaging equalizes the leading generalization risks at both small and very large noise, while a column-swap theorem proves strict expected generalization ranking for an isotropic signal subspace. For unequal spikes, an exact population-overlap criterion and a simultaneous $99\%$ Monte Carlo confidence certificate explain the observed intermediate ranking. A sixth-order risk correction improves the lower-crossover estimate in the reported experiment. This equal--ranked--equal phenomenon is a finite-sample diagnostic related to spectral mixing, but its tolerance crossings, the exceptional-point radius, and the asymptotic BBP threshold are three distinct quantities.

math.ST↗

arXiv2026

Embedded Conditional Independence Tests for Large Language Model Generated Text with an Application to German Parliament Speeches

Conditional independence tests (CITs) test for conditional dependence between two random objects $X$ and $Y$ given a third random object $Z$. Existing CITs have limited applicability to high-dimensional data, especially multimodal data like text. However, we show that such tests are of interest for large language model (LLM) outputs, where we test whether an output $X$ generated from a source text $Z$ carries information about an attribute $Y$ beyond $Z$ itself. For this purpose, we propose embedded CITs (eCITs), which embed $X$ and $Z$ and apply an existing CIT to the resulting representations and to $Y$. We show that, provided the embedding of $Z$ is sufficient, i.e. retains the information $Z$ carries about either $Y$ or the representation of $X$, the null hypothesis transfers from $X$ and $Z$ to their representations, so that a CIT valid for the embedded hypothesis is valid for the original one. We further give conditions for equivalence of the two hypotheses, and show that sufficiency weakens to mean sufficiency when the embedded test targets conditional mean independence. We propose a semi-synthetic simulation design to assess type I error (T1E) control and power of the eCITs for given embedding maps on a specific dataset and task, and use it to evaluate them on our application. Applying the eCITs to German Parliament speeches, we find for all combinations of embedding maps considered that the summaries of two LLMs contain information about the speaker's faction and gender beyond the speech they were generated from.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

DDPM Score Matching and Distribution Learning

Score estimation is the backbone of score-based generative models (SGMs), especially denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs). A key result in this area shows that with accurate score estimates, SGMs can efficiently generate samples from any realistic data distribution (Chen et al., ICLR'23; Lee et al., ALT'23). This distribution learning result, where the learned distribution is implicitly that of the sampler's output, does not explain how score estimation relates to classical tasks of parameter and density estimation. This paper introduces a framework that reduces score estimation to these two tasks, with various implications for statistical and computational learning theory: Parameter Estimation: Koehler et al. (ICLR'23) demonstrate that a score-matching variant is statistically inefficient for the parametric estimation of multimodal densities common in practice. In contrast, we show that under mild conditions, denoising score-matching in DDPMs is asymptotically efficient. Density Estimation: By linking generation to score estimation, we lift existing score estimation guarantees to $(ε,δ)$-PAC density estimation, i.e., a function approximating the target log-density within $ε$ on all but a $δ$-fraction of the space. We provide (i) minimax rates for density estimation over Hölder classes and (ii) a quasi-polynomial PAC density estimation algorithm for the classical Gaussian location mixture model, building on and addressing an open problem from Gatmiry et al. (COLT'26). Lower Bounds for Score Estimation: Our framework offers the first principled method to prove computational lower bounds for score estimation across general distributions. As an application, we establish cryptographic lower bounds for score estimation in general Gaussian mixture models, conceptually recovering Song's (NeurIPS'24) result and advancing his key open problem.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Orientations without transitive arcs for cubic graphs and phylogenetic networks

An $st$-orientation of an undirected graph $G$ is an acyclic digraph with a single source $s$ and a single sink $t$ that can be obtained from $G$ by assigning a direction to each edge. The classical problem of deciding if an undirected graph $G$ has an $st$-orientation can be solved efficiently. On the other hand, deciding if an $st$-orientation of $G$ exists that does not have any transitive arc is NP-complete, even if each vertex of $G$ has degree at most four. Here we show that this last decision problem remains NP-complete if $G$ is cubic, which settles an open question by Binucci et al. (2025). We obtain NP-completeness for two variants of the problem: (i) $s$ and $t$ are fixed and given as part of the input and (ii) $s$ and $t$ can be chosen freely. We then use these results to investigate the computational complexity of a problem that arises in computational evolution. Specifically, we show that the problem of deciding if an unrooted binary phylogenetic network has an orientation as a rooted binary phylogenetic network without any shortcuts (the analog of a transitive arcs in phylogenetics) is NP-complete. Our results connect the two (mostly) distinct research areas of orienting undirected graphs and orienting unrooted phylogenetic networks.

cs.CC↗

arXiv2026

Exact Recovery Thresholds for Weighted Data Selection in Vector-Valued Linear Regression

We resolve the threshold part of Question 4 of the COLT 2025 open problem "Data Selection for Regression Tasks" of Hanneke, Moran, Shlimovich and Yehudayoff. In vector-valued linear regression with square loss $\ell_{(x,y)}(W)=|Wx-y|_2^2$, where $x\in\mathbb{R}^d$, $y\in\mathbb{R}^m$ and the learner is the empirical risk minimizer of minimal Frobenius norm, we prove that the minimal budget of weighted examples that recovers the full-data loss on every finite dataset is exactly $n^*(d,m)=(m+1)d$. We further determine two more values of the weighted selection profile $F_w(d,m,n)$: at the near-threshold budget, $F_w(d,m,(m+1)d-1)=1+\frac{1}{dm^2}$, and at the spanning budget, $F_w(d,m,d)=d+1$ for every $m$, while $F_w(d,m,n)=\infty$ for $n<d$. For the smallest open intermediate cell $(d,m)=(2,2)$ we prove $F_w(2,2,3)\in[13/8,15/8]$ and $F_w(2,2,4)\in[5/4,3/2]$, reduce the conjectured exact values $13/8$ and $5/4$ to a finite moment problem on the circle with at most seven atoms, and establish strong structural evidence for the conjecture. The upper-bound techniques (a fixed-basis conic compression lemma, a determinant-facet rigidity theorem for maximal certificates, and sharp sparsification lemmas for zero-mean weighted point systems) are of independent interest. As a byproduct we correct an erroneous claim circulating in a recent unrefereed preprint, exhibiting an explicit dataset with $m=2$ on which no weighted selection of $2d$ points recovers the optimal loss. All results are new only for $m\ge 2$; the scalar case $m=1$ is due to Hanneke et al.

cs.LG↗