Search arXivSearch

arXiv · 2410.23852

Bagging the Network

Abstract

We develop a unified estimation and inference framework for dyadic network formation with individual fixed effects, covering both transferable-utility (TU) and nontransferable-utility (NTU) links under general link functions. Under NTU, bilateral consent makes the fixed effects non-additive and the log-likelihood non-concave in the high-dimensional fixed effects, so differencing and profile-likelihood methods fail. We combine a joint method-of-moments initial estimator, a Le Cam one-step refinement, and a split-network jackknife bagging step that removes the incidental parameter bias without inflating variance. The resulting homophily estimator is asymptotically normal, unbiased, and attains the Cramér--Rao lower bound without requiring the log-likelihood to be concave in the fixed effects; we extend the theory to average partial effects and establish robustness to link-function misspecification. Simulations under both TU and NTU designs confirm these predictions. Applied to Thai village networks (TU), kinship and wealth differences both increase linking; in the Nyakatoke risk-sharing network (NTU), wealth differences have no significant effect, mirroring the two regimes' distinct logics.

Explore related subjects

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Ming Li, Zhentao Shi, Yapeng Zheng. 2026-05-02. Bagging the Network. https://arxiv.org/abs/2410.23852

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

Poverty Targeting with Imperfect Information

How should antipoverty programs allocate transfers when household income is known only through noisy predictions? I formulate this as a statistical decision problem in which a policymaker chooses nonnegative transfers within a fixed budget to minimize squared deviations of post-transfer income from the poverty line. I show that the standard plug-in rule, which treats predictions as exact, is inadmissible. I then develop a nonparametric empirical Bayes allocation rule that replaces the estimated gaps with posterior mean poverty gaps. Its Bayes regret is bounded by the mean squared difference between its posterior mean gaps and the oracle's, so the budget and nonnegativity constraints do not slow its convergence to the oracle. The approach extends, with weaker guarantees, to a planner who cares only about how far households remain below the poverty line after transfers and to programs that pay a fixed set of benefit amounts. In simulations using household surveys from nine African countries, the allocations under the empirical Bayes rule reach about 1.8 times as many poor people as those under plug-in OLS with the same budget and achieve the same average poverty gap reduction with 6.7% less spending.

econ.EM

Estimating Treatment Effects in Panel Data Without Parallel Trends

This paper proposes a novel approach for estimating treatment effects in panel data settings, addressing key limitations of the standard difference-in-differences (DID) approach. The standard approach relies on the parallel trends assumption, implicitly requiring that unobservable factors correlated with treatment assignment be unidimensional, time-invariant, and affect untreated potential outcomes in an additively separable manner. This paper introduces a more flexible framework that allows for multidimensional unobservables and non-additive separability, and provides sufficient conditions for identifying the average treatment effect on the treated. An empirical application to job displacement reveals substantially smaller long-run earnings losses compared to the standard DID approach, demonstrating the framework's ability to account for unobserved heterogeneity that manifests as differential outcome trajectories between treated and control groups.

econ.EM

Single-Network Finite-Sample Inference in Strategic Network Formation Models

We develop a finite-sample valid inference procedure for strategic network formation models with endogenous network statistics, using only a single observed network. We impose no restrictions on network density, equilibrium selection, or the dependence structure induced by strategic interaction. Using a "bounding-by-c" technique, we obtain realization-wise sandwich inequalities whose middle term depends only on exogenous covariates and i.i.d. pairwise shocks. These inequalities deliver pathwise identifying restrictions and simulable finite-sample critical values in both parametric and semiparametric settings. Our proposed procedure is also computationally tractable: it does not involve solving, simulating, or enumerating equilibrium (sub)networks, and easily scales to networks with 10000 agents in simulations. In two empirical applications, we find statistical evidence for positive link interdependence at the 95% confidence level.

econ.EM