Search arXiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 2610.07563

HouseholdBench: Evaluating Large Language Models as Predictors of Household Economic Behavior

Jin Huang·Diego Ferreras Garrucho·Yutong Xie·Walter M. Yuan·Qiaozhu Mei·Chen Lian·Jonathon Hazell
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

Large language models (LLMs) have the potential to meet a key goal in economics: a quantitative model of household decision making, across a variety of settings. Yet existing evaluations cover few surveys and outcomes, and do not study how households adjust to changing economic conditions. We introduce a new evaluation, HouseholdBench, which unites 6 U.S. household surveys and 32 prediction tasks spanning numeric, categorical and probabilistic outcomes, related to consumption, income, labor, expectations, and housing. Using past behavior, demographics and macroeconomic conditions, the tasks test whether LLMs predict behavior, including how households adjust to changes in various policies. We evaluate 13 proprietary and open-weight LLMs against a no-change baseline and a gradient-boosted tree model. Most LLMs outperform the no-change baseline, including for policy response tasks -- with the best model lowering error for numeric outcomes by 12.2%. Across most tasks, gradient-boosted trees rank first; leading proprietary LLMs approach their performance, but open-weight models lag. LLMs exhibit systematic over- and underprediction across different tasks. We identify methods that enable a 4 billion parameter open-weight model to match proprietary models' performance: fine-tuning and aggregating 16 predictions per observation. Improvements generalize to policy-response tasks, which are excluded from fine-tuning. We release our datasets, code, and leaderboard on our website: https://jn-huang.github.io/householdbench

Explore related subjects

cs.CL

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Jin Huang, Diego Ferreras Garrucho, Yutong Xie, Walter M. Yuan, Qiaozhu Mei, Chen Lian, Jonathon Hazell. 2026-10-06. HouseholdBench: Evaluating Large Language Models as Predictors of Household Economic Behavior. https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.07563

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

STAPO: Stabilizing Reinforcement Learning for LLMs by Silencing Rare Spurious Tokens

Reinforcement Learning (RL) has significantly improved large language model reasoning, but existing RL fine-tuning methods rely heavily on heuristic techniques such as entropy regularization and reweighting to maintain stability. In practice, they often suffer from late-stage performance collapse, leading to degraded reasoning quality and unstable training. We identify a key factor behind this instability: a small fraction of tokens, termed spurious tokens (around 0.01%), which contribute little to the reasoning outcome but receive disproportionately amplified gradient updates due to inheriting the full sequence-level reward. We present a unified framework for evaluating token-level optimization impacts across spurious risk, gradient norms, and entropy changes. Building on the analysis of token characteristics that severely disrupt optimization, we propose the Silencing Spurious Tokens (S2T) mechanism to efficiently suppress their gradient perturbations. Incorporating this mechanism into a group-based objective, we propose Spurious-Token-Aware Policy Optimization (STAPO), which promotes stable and effective large-scale model refinement. Across six mathematical benchmarks and three model scales, STAPO consistently demonstrates superior entropy stability and achieves average accuracy improvements over baselines including GRPO, 20-Entropy, and JustRL under two widely-adopted evaluation settings.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

What You See Is What You Get: Observation-Aligned Supervision for Chart-to-Code Generation

Chart-to-code generation is commonly trained through supervised fine-tuning on reference plotting scripts, implicitly treating the gold code as a fully observable target. However, many chart programs contain latent variables that cannot be uniquely recovered from the rendered image. We identify this latent-observation mismatch in four forms across five chart types: aggregation-induced mismatch, where raw samples are reduced to box statistics or histogram bin masses; normalization-induced mismatch, where absolute scale is removed in pie charts; projection-induced mismatch, where 3D information is lost through 2D rendering; and level-set-induced mismatch, where a scalar field is observable only through selected contour lines. These mismatches introduce target ambiguity and require models to generate information unsupported by the image. We propose Observation-Aligned Supervision, which replaces latent variables with visually constrained quantities. And we study fixed-view 3D scatter and contour charts through controlled experiments. Across VLMs, observation-aligned supervision generally improves observable recovery end-to-end and under both-executable evaluation. Against compact analytic contour formulas, end-to-end performance declines despite better conditional boundary recovery in both-exec setting, suggesting a trade-off with representational compactness.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

Budget-Aware Compression Pipeline for Single-GPU LLM Inference: Methods, Trade-offs, and Coupling Effects

Single-GPU deployment of 70B-parameter language models on an NVIDIA GPU is constrained by device memory, long-context throughput, and engineering integration cost. We cast single-GPU inference as a budget-aware design problem over these three axes and study how pruning, quantization, and KV-cache compression interact under realistic execution. Controlled ablations show that layer-wise pruning makes weight quantization more robust. KV-cache sparsification complements INT8 KV quantization by reducing memory without hurting decoding speed, while static vector quantizers often conflict with dynamic caching. Guided by these coupling results and explicit budget tracking, we assembled a practical pipeline and compressed a 70B model to about 33 GB, sustained about 57 tokens/s on 10k token prompts on a single A40, and kept absolute accuracy within 5% on common and reasoning benchmarks. We contribute design rules and a reproducible evaluation protocol that jointly report quality, memory, and end-to-end speed, and we provide a foundation for automated pipeline search under realistic single-GPU constraints.

cs.CL↗