Brittle by Design? Multi-Scenario Reinforcement Learning for Robust Mission Coordination in Systems of Systems

Abstract

As systems engineering (SE) shifts from monolithic systems to Systems of Systems, Mission Engineering (ME) has emerged as a new line of thinking in SE. Mission environments are uncertain and dynamic, and outcomes depend on how mission assets interact with them, rendering static architectures brittle and calling for flexible yet analytically rigorous ME approaches. We propose an intelligent mission coordination methodology integrating high-fidelity digital mission models with Reinforcement Learning (RL) for adaptive task allocation. Using a Digital Engineering (DE) infrastructure comprising a digital mission model and agent-based simulation, we formulate mission tactics management as a Markov Decision Process and train an RL coordinator with Proximal Policy Optimization to map mission states to tactical actions from realized outcomes. An aerial firefighting mission with three scenarios demonstrates the approach. First, all trained coordinators significantly outperform random and heuristic baselines. Second, single-scenario coordinators can be brittle: the coordinator trained on the more forgiving scenario degrades to random tactics performance in more demanding scenarios, whereas the demanding-scenario coordinator retains most of its advantage when transferred. Third, within the same training budget, a coordinator trained on both scenarios concurrently matches the scenario-specific coordinators in their own scenarios and significantly outperforms every other policy. Sensitivity analyses on ignition location, weather, scenario, and training curricula show that the variability represented during training shapes post-deployment performance. This proof of concept shows DE-enabled mission simulations combined with RL offer a reusable methodology for improving ME practice, which can be extended to fleet design and selection from a mission-first perspective.