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arXiv2026

A Sensor-Adaptive Incremental Learning Framework for Artifact Detection in Satellite Precipitation Data

Historically, retrieving rainfall data from satellite imagery has been the domain of space agencies. However, in recent years, the development of cheaper, more compact satellites (SmallSats) capable of detecting rainfall proxies has led to a significant increase in private-sector initiatives for satellite launch and surface precipitation products. This rapid growth has yet to be matched by data validation efforts. Consequently, the need for a robust tool to detect anomalies in near-real-time data before it is disseminated to the public has become critical. In this paper, we present the development of an anomaly-detection system to identify artifacts in global satellite-based rainfall products. The developed framework leverages pre-trained computer vision models and incorporates scarce human-labeled data to detect specific anomalies. Our proposed anomaly detection strategy is tested on data from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) and the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS). Results demonstrate the efficacy of our approach at separating regular orbits from artifact-containing orbits for each satellite, with performance comparable to state-of-the-art in-place methods. Additionally, the framework offers explainability and the capacity for iterative refinement following false-positive or false-negative classifications.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2026

From crown candidates to neighborhood screening: integrating optical GeoAI and spatial modeling for urban-canopy assessment in Davis, California

Timely urban-canopy information is essential for linking remote sensing with heat, mobility, and neighborhood planning. We developed an optical GeoAI workflow for Davis, California, using 2022 National Agriculture Imagery Program imagery (0.6 m RGB+NIR). DeepForest generated crown candidates; an NDVI threshold, non-maximum suppression, and box-prompted Segment Anything Model (ViT-B) produced a crown-anchored canopy surface. Analyses used the 25.92 km2 Census TIGER municipal boundary and a 100 m grid. The workflow retained 11,741 candidate crowns and mapped 7.71 km2 of canopy (29.8% of the city). On the identical extent, pixel precision was 0.804, pixel recall was 0.873, and 97.4% of candidate centers agreed with the 2022 USDA/CAL FIRE LiDAR-assisted canopy product (IoU 0.719; Dice 0.837; area recovery 108.5%). Approximately 49% of candidates occurred within 15 m of a road. Canopy was inversely associated with Landsat land-surface temperature (Spearman rho = -0.477; partial rho = -0.551 controlling for built probability), and spatial-lag modeling confirmed clear neighborhood structure. Two transparent attention surfaces combined canopy need with thermal and contextual indicators. The framework provides a reproducible, updateable screening layer that complements structural canopy products and municipal inventories while retaining assumptions, data provenance, and spatial diagnostics for planning interpretation.

eess.IV↗

arXiv2026

Machine Learning for Pre-Culture ESBL Risk Stratification to Guide Empiric Antibiotic Selection: A 12-Hospital Study of Enterobacteriaceae Cultures

Empiric antibiotic therapy for suspected ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae must be selected 48-72 hours before culture results, forcing clinicians to choose between undertreating resistant infections and overusing carbapenems that drive further resistance. We developed a cost-sensitive XGBoost model predicting an ESBL phenotype (resistance to ceftriaxone, ceftazidime, cefepime or piperacillin-tazobactam) at culture ordering using 45 pre-culture EHR features across 132,955 cultures from 72,217 patients at 12 hospitals (14.41% with the ESBL phenotype). Cultures were partitioned at the patient level. At 90% sensitivity, the model achieved 95.8% NPV, reducing post-test ESBL probability to 4.2%, a threshold that may support safe carbapenem-sparing in non-ICU settings, while sparing 307 of every 1,000 cultures an unnecessary broad-spectrum course at the cost of 14 missed ESBL cases per 1,000. SHAP analysis identified prior ESBL colonization as the dominant predictor, ahead of prior organism burden and neighborhood deprivation; removing deprivation features caused minimal performance loss ($Δ\text{AUROC} = -0.020$), enabling equitable bedside deployment. Discrimination was unchanged under a strict IDSA ESBL-E definition (AUROC 0.766), with specimen type added as a predictor (0.764) and without any class-imbalance correction (0.762), and ranged from 0.71 to 0.78 across organism strata.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Large-scale spatial variable gene atlas for spatial transcriptomics

Spatial variable genes (SVGs) reveal critical information about tissue architecture, cellular interactions, and disease microenvironments. As spatial transcriptomics (ST) technologies proliferate, accurately identifying SVGs across diverse platforms, tissue types, and disease contexts has become both a major opportunity and a significant computational challenge. Here, we present a comprehensive benchmarking study of 20 state-of-the-art SVG detection methods using human slides from STimage-1K4M, a large-scale resource of ST data comprising 662 slides from more than 18 tissue types. We evaluate each method across a range of biologically and technically meaningful criteria, including recovery of pathologist-annotated domain-specific markers, cross-slide reproducibility, scalability to high-resolution data, and robustness to technical variation. Our results reveal marked differences in performance depending on tissue type, spatial resolution, and study design. Beyond benchmarking, we construct the first cross-tissue atlas of SVGs, enabling comparative analysis of spatial gene programs across cancer and normal tissues. We observe similarities between pairs of tissues that reflect developmental and functional relationships, such as high overlap between thymus and lymph node, and uncover spatial gene programs associated with metastasis, immune infiltration, and tissue-of-origin identity in cancer. Together, our work defines a framework for evaluating and interpreting spatial gene expression and establishes a reference resource for the ST community.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2026

Neural Posterior Estimation for Tomographic Weak Lensing Mass Mapping

Weak gravitational lensing shear and convergence trace the distribution of baryonic and dark matter across space, making them a powerful probe of cosmic structure. Inferring shear and convergence from images is a challenging inverse problem. The prevailing approach to this task estimates shear from weighted averages of galaxy ellipticities, calibrates these estimates to account for systematic biases, and transforms them to reconstruct convergence, a multistage procedure that requires substantial computational resources and meticulous handling of statistical uncertainties. As an alternative, we propose a probabilistic approach to field-level weak lensing inference in which we train a deep neural network to directly map a multiband image to a variational distribution over the underlying tomographic shear and convergence fields. This neural posterior estimation (NPE) procedure implicitly marginalizes over nuisance variables in the cosmological forward model and does not require evaluating the likelihood function. It is also amortized, so it enables rapid posterior inference for astronomical surveys once the neural network is trained. When evaluated on synthetic images from the LSST-DESC DC2 Simulated Sky Survey, NPE produces well-calibrated variational distributions for shear and convergence that are consistent with the ground truth. We describe how maps sampled from these variational distributions could be used in a subsequent simulation-based inference procedure to approximate the posterior distribution over cosmological parameters.

astro-ph.IM↗

arXiv2026

Quantum Codes from $r$-Nearly Self-Orthogonal Linear Codes via Jordan Canonical Form over $\mathbb{F}_{q^2}$

We introduce a Jordan-canonical-form framework for constructing $q$-ary quantum stabilizer codes from arbitrary classical linear codes over $\F_{q^2}$. The framework does not require the classical linear code $\mathcal{C}$ to satisfy the dual-containing condition (i.e., self-orthogonality). Given a classical code $\mathcal{C}=[n,k,d]_{q^2}$ with parity-check matrix $H$, we measure the obstruction to Hermitian self-orthogonality by the rank $r=(n-k)-\dim_{\F_{q^2}}(\mathcal{C}^{\perp_h}\cap \mathcal{C})$. The ingredient code $\mathcal{C}$ is $r$-nearly dual containing, or, equivalently, $\mathcal{C}^{\perp_h}$ is $r$-nearly self-orthogonal, by which we mean that $r=\Rank(HH^{\dagger})=\dim_{\F_{q^2}}(\mathcal{C}^{\perp_h})-\dim_{\F_{q^2}}(\mathcal{C}^{\perp_h}\cap \mathcal{C})$. By systematically reducing the rank of the Hermitian inner-product matrix $A=HH^{\dagger}$ through rank-one perturbations along the Jordan basis $W=P^{-1}$ of the decomposition $A=PJ_AP^{-1}$, we construct an explicit Hermitian self-orthogonal code $\mathcal{C}_{\mathrm{so}}=[n+r,n-k]_{q^2}$. A sufficient distance-preservation criterion guarantees that the resulting $q$-ary quantum code has parameters $[[n+r,2k-n+r,\geq d]]_q$. Applying this construction to classical codes produces several record quantum codes that improve or supplement the best-known parameters in Grassl's tables.

cs.IT↗

arXiv2026

SafeRestore: Detector-Relative Risk Certificates for Selective Industrial Image Restoration

Industrial inspection pipelines often restore a measured image before a detector acts on it, yet restoration can suppress detector-supported defect structure or create clean-region activations. We formulate restoration as a selective action problem over the measured display, five restored candidates, and review. SafeRestore ranks candidates with action-specific fitted scores, chooses a gate on threshold-tuning data, and evaluates the fixed gate on a disjoint certification sample with two one-sided exact binomial bounds: one for the positive-conditional evidence-loss incident rate and one for the all-accepted excess-activation incident rate. The guarantee is marginal for one policy fixed before its certification outcomes are observed, under an image-level i.i.d. working model. In a retrospective split-sample study of 4,591 public Carinthia-S images, the protocol yields auditable risk-coverage behavior. The primary all-action policy passes in one of five training repetitions (12.0% +/- 26.9% pass-gated test coverage when failures count as zero), whereas fixed bicubic and reduced-complexity variants pass more often. On reserved morphologies, evidence-loss incidence rises to 81.1-90.3%, and KolektorSDD lacks both detector competence and enough positive certification images for the stated target. The contribution is therefore an auditable, detector-relative framework for deciding when a transformed image may be returned automatically and when review remains necessary -- not a claim that adaptive routing outperforms simpler policies on the present evidence.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

Beyond AHI: An Interpretable Causal-Discovery-Guided Framework for Sleep Recovery in Connected Health

Objective sleep assessment relies on polysomnography (PSG), yet clinical impact is often better reflected in patient-reported outcomes (PROs) such as sleepiness and fatigue. Existing summary indices, including the Apnea-Hypopnea Index (AHI), provide limited insight into the multidomain physiology underlying functional recovery. We propose an interpretable, causal-discovery-guided framework for deriving a hierarchical Sleep Recovery Score (SRS) from multimodal PSG. Using two large population cohorts (MESA: $n=1{,}540$; MrOS: $n=825$), we apply directed acyclic graph (DAG) learning to identify candidate physiological drivers spanning respiratory burden, hypoxic burden, sleep fragmentation, sleep architecture, and autonomic regulation. Although derived from clinical PSG, these domains map naturally to sensing streams increasingly available in connected health technologies, including wearable ECG, oximetry, and sleep-stage estimation devices. To preserve mechanistic plausibility, we introduce a two-stage screening process that combines physiology-based constraints with constrained LLM-assisted auditing to identify and remove structural confounders and construct-overlapping variables. Across cohorts, these five domains emerge as recurrent physiological domains associated with recovery, and the resulting SRS shows up to $3.4\times$ stronger alignment with perceived recovery than AHI. By linking multimodal sleep physiology to patient-centered outcomes through an interpretable, bias-aware, and domain-structured framework, this work provides a practical foundation for recovery modeling across both clinical sleep studies and emerging smart and connected health settings.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

L2RDaS: Synthesizing 4D Radar Tensors for Model Generalization via Dataset Expansion

4-dimensional (4D) radar is increasingly adopted in autonomous driving for perception tasks, owing to its robustness under adverse weather conditions. To better utilize the spatial information inherent in 4D radar data, recent deep learning methods have transitioned from using sparse point cloud to 4D radar tensors. However, the scarcity of publicly available 4D radar tensor datasets limits model generalization across diverse driving scenarios. Previous methods addressed this by synthesizing radar data, but the outputs did not fully exploit the spatial information characteristic of 4D radar. To overcome these limitations, we propose LiDAR-to-4D radar data synthesis (L2RDaS), a framework that synthesizes spatially informative 4D radar tensors from LiDAR data available in existing autonomous driving datasets. L2RDaS integrates a modified U-Net architecture to effectively capture spatial information and an object information supplement (OBIS) module to enhance reflection fidelity. This framework enables the synthesis of radar tensors across diverse driving scenarios without additional sensor deployment or data collection. L2RDaS improves model generalization by expanding real datasets with synthetic radar tensors, achieving an average increase of 4.25\% in ${{AP}_{BEV}}$ and 2.87\% in ${{AP}_{3D}}$ across three detection models. Additionally, L2RDaS supports ground-truth augmentation (GT-Aug) by embedding annotated objects into LiDAR data and synthesizing them into radar tensors, resulting in further average increases of 3.75\% in ${{AP}_{BEV}}$ and 4.03\% in ${{AP}_{3D}}$. The implementation will be available at https://github.com/kaist-avelab/K-Radar.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

Latency-Response Theory Model: Evaluating Large Language Models via Response Accuracy and Chain-of-Thought Length

The proliferation of Large Language Models (LLMs) necessitates valid evaluation methods to provide guidance for both downstream applications and actionable future improvements. The Item Response Theory (IRT) model with Computerized Adaptive Testing has recently emerged as a promising framework for evaluating LLMs via their response accuracy. Beyond simple response accuracy, LLMs' chain of thought (CoT) lengths serve as a vital indicator of their reasoning ability. To leverage the CoT length information to assist LLM evaluation, we propose the \textbf{La}tency-\textbf{R}esponse \textbf{T}heory (LaRT) model, which jointly models both the response accuracy and CoT length by introducing a key correlation parameter between the latent ability and the latent speed. We derive an efficient stochastic approximation Expectation-Maximization algorithm for parameter estimation. We establish rigorous identifiability results for the latent ability and latent speed parameters to ensure the statistical validity of their estimation. Through both theoretical asymptotic analyses and simulation studies, we demonstrate LaRT's advantages over IRT in terms of superior estimation accuracy and shorter confidence intervals for latent trait estimation. To evaluate LaRT in real data, we collect responses from diverse LLMs on popular benchmark datasets. We find that LaRT yields different LLM rankings than IRT and outperforms IRT across multiple key evaluation metrics including predictive power, item efficiency, ranking validity, and LLM evaluation efficiency. Code and data are available at https://github.com/Toby-X/Latency-Response-Theory-Model

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

When Can LLM Digital Twins Reduce Human Measurement? From Behavioral Fidelity to Statistical Substitutability

LLM-based digital twins promise to reduce repeated human data collection by generating person- specific responses, yet existing evaluations provide little evidence about whether they can reduce human measurement while preserving valid inference. To address this, we introduce statistical substitutability, an inferential criterion that evaluates the extent to which twin predictions can reduce human measurement for a particular estimand while preserving valid inference. We develop a framework, grounded in mixed-subject and prediction-powered inference, that evaluates statistical substitutability along four dimensions: aggregate fidelity, paired respondent-level signal, finite-sample human-label recovery, and stability across populations. Across two empirical evaluations spanning behavioral experiments, multiple models, and alternative respondent representations, we find that digital twins can reproduce average human effects while providing little information about which individuals differ from those averages. Newer models and richer respondent information improve some dimensions of performance but do not reliably translate into human-data savings. Human calibration can reduce aggregate prediction error, yet limited labeled samples often fail to produce stable precision gains. Importantly, these findings demonstrate that behavioral fidelity is neither necessary nor sufficient for statistical substitutability. More broadly, they suggest that AI-generated evidence should be evaluated based on its ability to support valid scientific inference rather than its ability to reproduce human outcomes alone. Digital twins should therefore be judged for confirmatory use by whether they reduce uncertainty about human quantities, not merely by whether they reproduce human means, distributions, or effects.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Contamination Inflates Scores but Rarely Reorders Large Language Model Leaderboards

Benchmark contamination, the leakage of test items into training data, is widely described as a threat to the reliability of large language model (LLM) leaderboards. We argue that this concern conflates two distinct questions: whether contamination inflates absolute scores, and whether it reorders the ranking of models. We recast contamination as a violation of anchor-item invariance and measure it through the differential functioning of original versus semantically equivalent paraphrased items, a within-item contrast that holds the measured skill fixed and isolates memorization from capability. Using per-instance responses from 47 publicly released models and 74 models finetuned with a known dose of contamination, across four benchmarks (ARC, GSM8K, HellaSwag, MMLU), we first calibrate the measure against ground truth: it recovers injected contamination dose-responsively (a corrected effect of +0.187 accuracy points for test-set leakage) and never flags a negative-control model trained only on the legitimate training split (-0.012). We then quantify leaderboard impact: the rank correlation between a standard leaderboard and a paraphrase-controlled leaderboard is 0.997, and a sensitivity analysis shows that the observed differential contamination is far below the level needed to move rankings, with only 3 of 188 model-by-benchmark cases showing differential contamination corroborated across two references. Contamination among these public models is therefore largely uniform: it inflates absolute scores without reordering the leaderboard, and ranking distortion requires the rare case of differential contamination. We provide a calibrated invariance audit, released as a reference implementation, and recommend that leaderboards report paraphrase-controlled rankings alongside confidence intervals.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Spending Scarce Confirmatory PET Measurements: Target-Aligned Validation in A4/LEARN

Anti-amyloid therapies and blood-based biomarkers are changing Alzheimer disease workups into a two-stage measurement workflow: screen broadly with cheaper information, then spend scarce confirmatory amyloid measurements where they support the decision that will be reported. Amyloid positron-emission tomography (PET) remains one such protocol measurement for amyloid burden, but PET slots, trial budgets, and payer-facing evidence packages are finite. This paper asks a deliberately operational question: when is simple transparent PET validation enough, and when is a fitted residual-uncertainty score worth the added complexity? For a weighted protocol target, the first-order value of validating subject i is the product of target influence and residual protocol uncertainty. Generic uncertainty sampling uses only the second factor and can spend PET measurements on subjects that are hard to predict but weak for the scientific, clinical, or commercial claim. We apply this rule to the A4/LEARN PET archive, treating observed PET as a design laboratory for scarce-confirmation studies. For the primary APOE4 carrier versus non-carrier contrast in Centiloid 24-or-higher PET positivity, simple APOE4-balanced validation recovers nearly all of the target-specific gain: at PET budget 200, the confidence-interval width ratio relative to random validation is 0.923 for APOE4 balancing and 0.914 for target-specific scoring, while generic uncertainty sampling is 0.980. Other targets behave differently: target-specific scoring gives larger gains for an age-slope analysis and for cutoff-indexed PET positivity. The practical message is simple: spend scarce protocol measurements according to the claim being validated, not only according to prediction uncertainty.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2026

Combating Organized Platform Abuse: Amplifying Weak Risk Signals with Structural Information

Large-scale online service platforms face severe challenges from organized platform abuse: multiple forms such as credit card fraud and promotion abuse continually emerge, characterized by large numbers of involved accounts, rapid outbreaks, and constantly shifting tactics. Existing mainstream approaches, whether heuristic rules limited in precision, supervised learning with insufficient generalization, or graph models that are engineering-heavy and dependent on seed users, have failed to address such threats effectively. This paper returns to first principles and, starting from the economic constraints of fraudulent behavior, proposes the Fraudster's Trilemma: organized attackers cannot simultaneously achieve scale, low cost, and dispersed cash-out. Building on this theory, we derive a robust structural invariant in organized fraud, namely centralized cash-out, and use a simple statistical method to turn low-precision individual weak signals into high-precision strong decisions. The method requires no labels, is nearly parameter-free, white-box interpretable, has linear complexity O(|E|), avoids cold-start issues, and its detection logic possesses the "open-hand" property: attackers cannot evade it even when fully informed. We validate the approach on two real fraud incidents in backtests. In the promotion abuse case, a single near-zero-cost weak signal (global Precision of only 16%) after structural amplification achieves Precision above 91% and Recall exceeding 99% (z=10.0); at a higher threshold (z=40.0), Precision reaches 93.7%. In the credit card fraud case, an infrastructure-layer weak signal (device spoofing) successfully detects payment-layer attacks without any business-logic linkage, revealing the framework's natural MO-agnostic property: it relies more on the structural invariant than on signal semantics.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2026

Biases in Expected Goals Models Confound Finishing Ability

Expected Goals (xG) has emerged as a popular tool for evaluating finishing skill in soccer analytics. It involves comparing a player's cumulative xG with their actual goal output, where consistent overperformance indicates strong finishing ability. However, the assessment of finishing skill in soccer using xG remains contentious due to players' difficulty in consistently outperforming their cumulative xG. In this paper, we aim to address the limitations and nuances surrounding the evaluation of finishing skill using xG statistics. Specifically, we explore three hypotheses: (1) the deviation between actual and expected goals is an inadequate metric due to the high variance of shot outcomes and limited sample sizes, (2) the inclusion of all shots in cumulative xG calculation may be inappropriate, and (3) xG models contain biases arising from interdependencies in the data that affect skill measurement. We found that sustained overperformance of cumulative xG requires both high shot volumes and exceptional finishing, including all shot types can obscure the finishing ability of proficient strikers, and that there is a persistent bias that makes the actual and expected goals closer for excellent finishers than it really is. Overall, our analysis indicates that we need more nuanced quantitative approaches for investigating a player's finishing ability, which we achieved using a technique from AI fairness to learn an xG model that is calibrated for multiple subgroups of players. As a concrete use case, we show that (1) the standard biased xG model underestimates Messi's GAX by 17% and (2) Messi's GAX is 27% higher than the typical elite high-shot-volume attacker, indicating that Messi is even a more exceptional finisher than people commonly believed.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Machine Learning and ARIMA Model Averaging for Adaptive Public Health Forecasting: Comparative Evaluation and an Ontario COVID-19 Case Study

Public health forecasts must respond to abrupt changes in surveillance data without over-extrapolating noise, reporting artifacts, or temporary trends. We evaluated autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), random forest, and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models using 190 weekly observations of publicly available Ontario COVID-19 case counts from January 2020 to October 2023. Rolling-origin time-series cross-validation preserved temporal order during model tuning and evaluation. Performance was assessed across three operating dimensions: responsiveness following selected turning points, forecast horizons of one to six weeks, and the amount of historical training data. We also developed Machine Learning and ARIMA Model Averaging (MLAMA), a non-negative performance-weighted ensemble with weights that vary by forecast horizon and responsiveness setting. Retrospective comparisons showed that ARIMA adapted rapidly after turning points but its normalized error increased at longer horizons. Random forest and XGBoost were less responsive initially but maintained more stable normalized error over longer horizons. For two-week forecasts at the end of the study period, training on the most recent data outperformed using longer historical periods, particularly for XGBoost. MLAMA achieved the lowest normalized mean absolute percentage error across most forecast horizons and ranked among the best-performing methods across responsiveness settings. These findings support selecting forecasting models according to operating conditions rather than relying on a single universally preferred approach. MLAMA provides a practical framework for combining complementary statistical and machine-learning forecasts. The accompanying Python package is currently maintained in a private repository while software validation and reproducibility testing are completed.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Feature Priming in Online Linear Regression: Sparse-Regret Lower Bounds and Tight Coordinatewise Rates

In high-dimensional online prediction, sparse comparators motivate regret bounds that depend on sparsity rather than ambient dimension. Feature priming seeks such adaptation by reweighting features using past data and refitting a minimum-norm predictor. At COLT 2023, Warmuth and Amid posed the open problem of whether the univariate, Pearson, or multivariate priming rules admit competitive online regret guarantees. Under the natural past-only Moore--Penrose protocol, we establish sparse-regret lower bounds that refute the corresponding sparse-logarithmic guarantee. The key obstruction is cheap nuisance interpolation, which permits exact interpolation of the history while assigning insufficient weight to the truly predictive coordinate. An exact target-mass identity and a two-sign argument convert this obstruction into clipped prediction loss. Hadamard constructions yield $Ω(\min\{T,\sqrt d\})$ clipped regret for each of the three unit-power rules against a zero-loss one-sparse comparator. For every fixed power $α\ge1$, one shared paired construction further yields linear regret simultaneously for all three powered rules and selectors among them in sufficiently high dimension. A rank upper bound is tight for powered univariate priming, even with Euclidean-unit inputs, and for unit-power Pearson priming with coordinatewise bounded inputs and target-preserving totalization. A separate algebraic construction gives $Ω(\min\{T,d^{1/4}\})$ regret for unit-power multivariate priming under Euclidean-unit inputs. The univariate lower bound persists under any nonnegative second-stage ridge schedule, while a paired ridge construction yields linear lower bounds for all three powered rules. Exploratory diagnostics on frozen language-model activations are consistent with the same qualitative mechanism. The exact multivariate frontier remains open.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Modeling Information Blackouts in Missing Not-At-Random Time Series Data

Traffic forecasting systems rely on fixed sensor networks that frequently exhibit contiguous blackouts. Such outages are usually treated as ignorable missingness, although dropout can depend on unobserved traffic conditions. We study this possibility with an MNAR-aware latent state-space model that combines linear traffic dynamics with a Bernoulli missingness channel whose probability depends on the latent state. Inference uses an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) followed by Rauch-Tung-Striebel (RTS) smoothing, and parameters are learned by approximate EM. We evaluate Seattle using a leakage-free, month-balanced set of 300 unique all-horizon-aligned blackout windows. On this benchmark, MAR-LDS attains 4.264 mph pooled imputation RMSE and MNAR-LDS improves it to 4.177 (difference -0.086); the detector-cluster bootstrap 95% interval is [-0.182,-0.002]. A causal one-step predicted latent representation raises missingness ROC-AUC from 0.685 using observed-only features to 0.784. We further test whether this compact probabilistic model remains competitive with substantially larger neural time-series architectures under the identical masked-imputation protocol. MNAR-LDS ranks second in pooled RMSE and outperforms 8 of 9 evaluated neural architectures; it is within 1.22% of the best neural result, with no statistically resolved difference under detector-cluster bootstrap, while achieving lower P95 error, lower long-blackout RMSE, and orders of magnitude fewer stored scalar entries. MNAR roughly doubles end-to-end training time relative to MAR and increases EKF+RTS inference time by 41%, making the accuracy-complexity-cost tradeoff explicit. Controlled state-dependent blackouts further show larger gains when dropout is genuinely informative, including a 6.34% reduction in 30-minute forecast RMSE relative to MAR.

stat.ML↗